Nexxen Share Discussion Threads

[mikh1] 17/11/2024 22:46

Thanks for the reply Ragos. Hopefully it'll be straightforward. Best, Mike

[brimach1] 17/11/2024 22:06

Mutha…re your…Nexxen May get close to 20% in Q4.

I think that’s an imperative. Without a meet or beat in 4Q and FY24 Nexxen will be crucified after the listing.

CC extract, Niri… In Q4 2024, we anticipate achieving a strong quarter from a contribution ex-TAC and adjusted EBITDA perspective as we continue to see momentum from Q3 carrying over into the fourth quarter.

Re your… Our hope must be that we’re taken out by someone with deep pockets and low expectations.

I’m not so pessimistic. Following the integration of Amobee it was always my view that it would take a couple of years for Nexxen to mature and even though progress appears slow, I expect that the scaling up will continue through 2025.

[muthadrucker] 17/11/2024 19:37

Totally agree Brimach. I’ve been hanging my hat on the value gap with peers. Discounting TTD since they are in a league of their own. Viant seemed like a good benchmark until I woke up to the fact that they have been growing at 20% every quarter for the last six quarters. That’s why they command such a high valuation. Nexxen May get close to 20% in Q4 but it’s hard to be optimistic that they can maintain that level next year.
Our hope must be that we’re taken out by someone with deep pockets and low expectations

[brimach1] 17/11/2024 18:41

As an investor here I’ve no desire to mess in my own nest. That said, it is difficult to ignore some (perhaps most) of the remarks posted here by muthadruker.

This far at least, whereas some growth is apparent, it isn’t equating terribly well with the expectation and hype that we’ve been sold by Druker and Niri. And I agree with 1gw that the cc came across to me also, as a sales pitch at times.

Not surprising then that credibility is at the forefront of critic here as we all try to assess what’s ahead for 4Q earnings, FY25 forecast, and the consequential impact that these may have on the US listing.

Personally, I was a tad disappointed that 3Q24 revs came in lower than $95million ($90.2 million posted, leading to a contribution ex tac of $85.5million).

Here’s the rub…irrespective of the $500 million revs forecast pre Amobee, the company has reiterated FY2024 Contribution ex-TAC to be in a range of approximately $340 - $345 million. We finished last year (FY23) with an ex tac of $314 million. Therefore, at the low end of forecast (340 mil), FY24 will be just 8.3% up on FY23. We need to do better.

Nexxen’s ex tac to date is $238.3million. In order to hit the low end of the FY24 target, next qtr (4Q24) ex tac needs to come in at $101.7million (or better). That’s 16.2million or almost 19% up on 3Q24’s $85.5mil. Can Nexxen do it? It’s the 4th qtr after all, so percentage wise, would this impress pre-listing? Consider also that 2 years back we finished 4Q22 with $103mill ex tac.

Whereas I’m happy to see Nexxen exit AIM, looking ahead there’s a lot hanging on 4Q24 and Nexxen’s FY24 earnings, and the FY25 outlook, for a successful listing in the US but either way I think we will see a fairer valuation given there than we have ever been awarded on AIM

To quote Muthadruker… Viant’s revenues are less than 60% of Nexxen’s and their Ebitda is about half. Their valuation is double.

Exactly, Viant is nasdaq listed and this is one good example why Nexxen’s true value should out next year.

[ragos] 17/11/2024 17:18

gadgie,
Take the rose tinted glasses off and
Then dial down the optimism ain't happening...
R

[gadgie2] 17/11/2024 16:47

Hey no worries ... guy’s I’m at peace with my investment more than Happy to take a break see you all on the Nas …. These BB’s can be testing so I’m really Happy to chill one love all !

[muthadrucker] 17/11/2024 15:48

Please Gadge stop. Do you know how long Cavendish, the house broker, and their predecessor Finncap have been calling for £10 and telling investors it’s seriously undervalued and quote “this situation can’t continue for long”

[gadgie2] 17/11/2024 14:36

Furthermore, Cavendish analysts believe Nexxen International’s trading metrics demonstrate its deep undervaluation compared to US peers, such as Magnite and The Trade Desk. At just 3x forward EV/EBITDA, Nexxen is poised for significant upside, supported by a target price of 1,000p—a 242% increase from its current trading level.

[john09] 17/11/2024 14:05

£132m cash that’s 33% of the market cap and 33p eps expected next year so That’s a forward PE of 6 ex cash. Clearly way too cheap for nasdaq

So here goes big helpful advice

I’ve followed 3 small caps from aim to both the HKSE and Nasdaq before and they do always go ballistic sometimes even after a slow start as US investors catch on. Those stocks were

1. WCC (WEST CHINA CEMENT NOW 2233 ON HKSE)
2. GAN
3. EROS.

What tends to happen is that the companies get coverage stateside in publications that we aren’t fully aware of and they start streaking in our eyes for no reason.

In the case of the 2 that went to Nasdaq my memory was that the initial price was seemingly disappointing and aim holders got disappointed and sold either just before the switch or just after because they were in too much of a rush for a quick Buck.this in both cases was a huge mistake

GAN traded on aim for between 40p and 200p . The share finally left aim at around 200p I can’t remember exactly and I think similarly it doubled up to around 4 USD for is nasdaq list. Anyway it got caught up in the online gambling hype along with draftkings etc and peaked at 33 USD a share . 9 BAGGER

Eros very similar c 300p on aim I think they got it away below the aim price on Nasdaq which disappointed some aim holders and they dumped . Went at an equivalent of around 8 usd a share from memory . It again went on to 30 usd a share from memory. 5 BAGGER (CORRECTED)

Back to TRMR as it was in early 2021 the price was at 700p and sharewatch said that it could double or more with a nasdaq listing . It finally got the ADRs away at 19 usd that’s 250% of today

It needs positive news flow and a good market. My target on Nasdaq next year is 30 USD an equivalent of £12 per share

I hope all of the ‘family” of long term holders and dimwits who don’t like ‘outsidersR17; here and are clearly the ones panicking about the share price here still have me filtered and will miss the benefit of me having held 3 aim shares as they switch to overseas miss out on my experience because it will cost them.

[muthadrucker] 17/11/2024 13:39

He’s improved a lot in presenting the scripted commentary but absolutely horrendous when answering questions. Just about the most inarticulate CEO I’ve heard.

[john09] 17/11/2024 13:32

I must say the q&a at the end of the presentation wasn’t very positive and Ofer doesn’t answer direct questions well

[john09] 17/11/2024 13:31

It’s amazing how much the mood changed here from the long term holders between 1pm friday when the share price was 315p to when we closed at 300p

Do we still not know the reason for that sharp 20p markdown, did the markdown occur sometime midway through the webcast ?

[muthadrucker] 17/11/2024 13:20

Doubt Ofer gives a fig what we think but he knows what we know so he’ll be working hard to find a buyer. On a hopeful note, Nexxen may not be the future of adtech but the balance sheet is now in good shape and it’s cash generating and there are often mugs out there sitting on a pile of cash and under pressure to do something with it. The example of HP/Autonomy springs to mind

[muthadrucker] 17/11/2024 11:23

My fairly crude assessment suggests that anything less than 20% growth projections for next year means the share price will never get beyond £4. Even a full listing on the Nasdaq won’t cut it unless Nexxen is perceived as a high growth company.
Despite all the hullabaloo about partnerships, ACR data opportunities and the virtues of the E2E platform, the fact remains if they hadn’t done the deal with LG which guaranteed additional revenue there would have been zero growth this year.
Right now projected growth for nex year is about 10%. That won’t attract interest from anyone.
I’ve been hoping for a sale for over a year now and nothing yet has materialised. I’m sure GS have tried hard to find a buyer but so far nothing. I’m still hopeful they can persuade/con someone to come up with £5, ideally before the Nasdaq listing

[barkbooo] 17/11/2024 10:26

Listen - I am another that has zero trust in Ofer…If the shrewd on here all think the same way, the management must feel the vibes.

My bet - and I am pretty good with odds…………… this will be sold within several months and for considerably more than today’s offering….just a guess!

[muthadrucker] 16/11/2024 21:32

Forget to mention Viant’s revenues are less than 60% of Nexxen’s and their Ebitda is about half. Their valuation is double

[muthadrucker] 16/11/2024 20:16

Laura Martin chose to highlight the fact that Nexxen’s growth is only half that of TTD and Viant. Says it all really.
Viant is valued at 20x Ebitda TTM
and she values Nexxen at less than 7x Ebitda

[1gw] 16/11/2024 19:33

Laura Martin appears to be more convinced than she was, doesn't she?

Price target (on ADS) raised from $8.50 to $9.50 (so around £3.76/share). And that's after raising from $6.50 to $8.50 after the 2Q results.

Having said that, if you open up the chart on the wallstreetzen analysis you can see she has apparently kept a buy rating all the way through the last 3 years.

But if you look at her price targets on other stocks, 27% upside (Nexn at time of latest price target) compares reasonably well with those.

[ragos] 16/11/2024 18:09

Gadgie,
I have been retired 25 years this year.
I have no tax allowances.
Think about it.
I have had enough of flannel from Ofer.
He is kicking the can down the road again with this Nas listing and further recompense.
He had one go and balls it up at no cost to him.
I most probably will not be around in 2028.
I have to tidy things up and not leave it to someone else.
Bye gadgie! Hope it comes good for you and the others who have hung on.

R
ps Muth I don't think Ofer has any credibility in the industry.

[muthadrucker] 16/11/2024 17:41

Just read through the transcript of the earnings call. Not a mention of the Vidaa partnership. After all the fanfare and the references to both Hisense and Vidaa growth. Of course Sagi conceded back in June that the contribution this year would be negligible after Ofer told us in mid 2023 that it was about to take off in Q4. Sagi then suggests the partnership would deliver 20/30m in 2025 but somehow its not worthy of a mention on this call.
There is so much bluff and bluster with this management team it’s no wonder they struggle to build credibility with investors.
If their bullishness has any foundation in reality then 20% growth next year should be achievable, in line with our higher performing peers but one wonders what other prominent partnerships will be quietly forgotten in the next few months.
If they can’t achieve 20% growth, then even a full listing on the Nasdaq is unlikely to attract any new shareholder interest.
Clearly Laura Martin for one is not convinced with a revised target price of less than four quid

[gadgie2] 16/11/2024 14:53

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