Next Share Discussion Threads

[wipo1] 04/1/2017 17:07

I think the market has got this one spot on. The outlook for retail is very poor, higher business rates, minimum wage increase, consumers only wanting to buy in sales(little spare cash going about)Oh and brexit and the very weak pound.The people I speak to in retail says it's the worst in years, people are only buying in the sales!

[essentialinvestor] 04/1/2017 16:50

Already happened, where we go from here is more instructive.

It used to be the 3 day rule with disappointing updates, but everything now
seems to take place at 5 times your average speed.

[careful] 04/1/2017 16:49

Never understood why Wolfson bought back shares at the higher prices in the past.
It supported the share price making it artificially high but is bad for the business.

... but if executive bonuses were linked to the share price then that is a possible explanation.

[diku] 04/1/2017 16:43

Tomorrow comes other broker downgrades...this was the best short around the £70 - £80...

[tlobs2] 04/1/2017 16:42

RB I think that was in store sales that were down 6%. The very mild weather hasn't helped them either.

Overall they are still a highly profitable company with decent cash reserves. They also have a history of paying reasonable dividends.

As mentioned earlier time to restart the share buy back program whilst the price is so low.

[essentialinvestor] 04/1/2017 16:39

Well if we get another plunge lower again at the open will have another
very small amount.

No one can accuse the CEO of not giving ample warning, was it April/May last
year when he said this was the toughest UK retail environment since 2008.

I saw a few analysts today reference the growth rates of online only retailers
re Next, and that comparison is a little disingenuous imv. Much easier to grow
in leaps and bounds from a very small revenue base.

NEXT are closing some older smaller stores and they will need to continue that transition.

[careful] 04/1/2017 16:38

I really meant 5% total return as a target.
Well ahead of inflation and cash on deposit.
A year of consolidation will be fine.

Still smarting from those crash years of 2003/2009.
-40% each time..ouch.

[r ball] 04/1/2017 16:33

The chart tells you all you need to know. Avoid.

LFL sales are 6% down accordingly to FTAlphaville today.

[tlobs2] 04/1/2017 16:22

This is the second time he has issued a gloomy statements that has seen the share price plummet. Maybe he just likes being the hero when he turns it around ;-)

That said for a 1% fall in turnover and similar profits to those previously predicted then the drop in share price is crazy.

[g2theary] 04/1/2017 16:21

I've picked up 700 shares at 4240 looking to make 10% with in this month... We shall see...

[g2theary] 04/1/2017 16:19

I think he means div + 5% which is possible but depends on all the other retailers and weather we hit a recession... Brexit recession still to come IMO

[careful] 04/1/2017 16:16

Wolfson seems to have the habit, in recent times, of issuing gloomy statements.
Is he trying to massage the share price down to buy them back at a lower price?

He is a smart operator.

[imranawan] 04/1/2017 16:13

If they pay a regular divi (assuming its static), and the specials they alluded to in the TU this am. The yield is around 7.6% at the current share price

Careful, was that a typo, or is 5% what you're looking for over the next 12 months? Seems a lot of risk for a 5% return.

[careful] 04/1/2017 16:11

I can never micro manage purchases with such accuracy as that big boots.
but you are right in one respect, it is the behaviour of investors that move prices.
Why should something start down and then move higher? it makes no sense.
The shares move down because of selling...but big boots goes against the tide and wins.


I am taking a longer term view here and hoping for a total return, (divi + capital) of 5% over the next 12 months.

[bigboots] 04/1/2017 15:59

Another big leg down tomorrow before a recovery, buy tomorrow, not today

[careful] 04/1/2017 15:52

been buying in gently today.
chasing it down.
just over 41 right now.

nxt have almost halved in 12 months.
A quality retailer for customers with taste.

[mitreatrading] 04/1/2017 15:44

Skydiving without parachute...

[tlobs2] 04/1/2017 15:32

If ever there was a good time to restart the share buy back scheme then it could be right now :-)

[bigboots] 04/1/2017 15:18

£39.

[rickmay] 04/1/2017 14:39

TMI NAP for 2017:

Supergroup (SGP; 1604p)
Shares in fashion retailer Supergroup, which sells jackets, t-shirts and hoodies via its Superdry brand, could easily be sitting north of £25 by the end of 2017, which reflects its vast array of opportunities. The UK, which trades through 570,000 sq. ft. space, is benefiting from re-designed new stores, which are cheaper to build and increase the range by 30%, while also reducing stock requirements. More exciting still are its plans in Europe, which are expected to increase retail space by half to c. 420,000 sq. ft this year and should eventually exceed the UK. But what could really lift the lid is online sales, which have soared from 11% in FY’13 to 23.1% of a larger total and with new distribution centres opening in Europe and the US in time for Christmas to support a free 48-hour delivery offer, the shares could spike higher still. With net cash and strong European exposure, Supergroup looks cheap on a soon-to-be prospective PE of 17.2 (eps: 93p) in comparison to domestically focused recent issue Joules on 23x.

[rickmay] 04/1/2017 14:38

TMI NAP for 2017:

Supergroup (SGP; 1604p)
Shares in fashion retailer Supergroup, which sells jackets, t-shirts and hoodies via its Superdry brand, could easily be sitting north of £25 by the end of 2017, which reflects its vast array of opportunities. The UK, which trades through 570,000 sq. ft. space, is benefiting from re-designed new stores, which are cheaper to build and increase the range by 30%, while also reducing stock requirements. More exciting still are its plans in Europe, which are expected to increase retail space by half to c. 420,000 sq. ft this year and should eventually exceed the UK. But what could really lift the lid is online sales, which have soared from 11% in FY’13 to 23.1% of a larger total and with new distribution centres opening in Europe and the US in time for Christmas to support a free 48-hour delivery offer, the shares could spike higher still. With net cash and strong European exposure, Supergroup looks cheap on a soon-to-be prospective PE of 17.2 (eps: 93p) in comparison to domestically focused recent issue Joules on 23x.

[essentialinvestor] 04/1/2017 14:35

steven, your guess is as good as mine tbh, would not bet the farm on NEXT though,
often safer buying in stages than trying to time an optimum price. Best of luck
and would view Next as higher than average risk atm, all just my take.

[davr0s] 04/1/2017 14:29

Light volume Lol

[stevenrevell] 04/1/2017 14:25

Being new to this essential is it worth waiting or buying only for advise ta