Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[propinv] 10/7/2019 21:05

Thanks chucko. I get that argument. But in a world where people are moving to shopping as part of an experience, do you agree that they have more positives than NRR on that key point

[chucko1] 10/7/2019 20:53

PropInv, INTU trades dirt cheap because significant capital will be required to bring their locations up to standards that will allow them to be rented at any level. Recognition of this is why they’ve been jilted twice, so far, at the M&A altar.

[propinv] 10/7/2019 20:39

Essential a look at discount to NAV for Intu and Hammerson - expect 60-70% Discount to NAV

[chucko1] 10/7/2019 20:25

Minerve, I am more than happy the shorters are kicking this. I get them cheaper and whether or not they short, the prospects of the company remain unaltered.

I’m not aware of them proposing a capital raise!

M-Kerr, the point about rent affordability, especially at the very low absolute levels, and likely as a percentage of the turnover of the shops on the premises, is one of the more important factors in the investment case for NRR. As I say, there are bad retails REITs (most), and then there are those that deserve more thoughtful consideration. But with Woody and all that, the waters are truly muddied. Sorts out the men from the boys.

[nisbet] 10/7/2019 20:06

m_kerr

You’ve misread the trades. What you are looking at is a placing with reports taking place after the market close. Adding up the numbers would suggest circa 25,500,000 sold and placed probably taking out the entire remaining holding of Mr Woodford.

The shorters might be a touch worried in the morning and some/many may be running for cover.

[chucko1] 10/7/2019 20:03

I am an investor with Odey and that is where my INTU short comes from (and an NRR one for that matter, but I am far longer than that short). He loathes INTU with a passion, nearly as much as Metro Bank!! He dislikes U.K. retail as well, as a whole.

But he certainly makes mistakes, and he also shorts certain things from a relative value aspect, so a short does not necessarily indicate a major dislike. The time to worry is if he puts on a short and increases it as it falls. Like INTU and Metro Bank! And TSLA.

The short on NRR is more likely a trade against the overhang, given the timing of Odey’s position announcement (exactly 0.5%). About 1.5% of the 7.37% overall short was put on after Woodford’s implosion, with 5.5% having been the overall short level the past 15 months or so.

[m_kerr] 10/7/2019 19:56

lots of large sales of the stock today showing up, placing further downwards pressure on the share price.

i think it's telling that there is very little CVA / administration impact happening at NRR. for instance, minimal impact from the arcadia mess, with no rent reductions. that shows a) that retailers are by and large trading profitably at NRR sites. it's because rents are already at a realistic level. NRR assess rent affordability when they acquire assets.

[minerve 2] 10/7/2019 19:50

Typical shorter's game: Call contacts in City, generate fear. Exploit ignorance.

Remind me what value these people add to society?

Oh yeah, I forgot, price discovery etc..

How on Earth did they manage without it under the Buttonwood tree?

ROFLMAO!

[minerve 2] 10/7/2019 19:25

Odey has made the wrong call a few times and he may just have selected this because of the very large overhang. What is important is intrinsic value, Odey may help us buy significantly under it. ;)

[hugepants] 10/7/2019 19:16

FYI I'm a holder here and well underwater. I keep hearing the argument that NRR is different from the likes of INTU,HMSO and CAL. Ive already mentioned the deteriorating footfall but also why is there such a large short position against this stock (google it) from the likes of Odey. These guys usually get it right and they don't target strong companies.

[zccax77] 10/7/2019 17:44

150 incoming

[chucko1] 10/7/2019 17:23

“... recession is looming ...”. It’s not a fact! Even if it is [looming] (which I tend to agree with), no two are the same.

In any event, it’s sensible to differentiate between the REITs. There are those (like INTU), which are likely doomed as they have capital issues (and I am short), or there are those like NRR which have ample capital. In fact, arguably too much capital which has been a factor in preventing them from covering their EPRA dividend - something they can address by buying the cheap stuff out there now. Or more pubs.

[minerve 2] 10/7/2019 17:08

"This fall is because of the nutter with too much money."

By-the-way, that isn't me! LOL

[minerve 2] 10/7/2019 17:06

People become skint they go to pound shops.
People become skint they stop eating at Iguanas and start visiting pub chains.
People become skint they do regular shopping at discount grocers and top up the milk and bread at convenience stores during the week.

I actually think there is a reasonable chance that foot fall increases during a recession and NRR as landlords will have some degree of pricing power because they have some monopoly on bargain retail location which will become the consumer retail target of choice. Intu Trafford Centre will become a luxury day out - if not already.

This fall is because of the nutter with too much money.

[essentialinvestor] 10/7/2019 16:22

Appreciate some are looking at this as a buy and hold, which is fair enough.
That aside, I can't think of one example where buying a retail focussed REIT
with recession is looming large has been a well timed purchase.
I'm sure there are one or two examples somewhere.

[chucko1] 10/7/2019 16:13

Asmodeus, some would say so - and repeatedly. But they are not weighing all the factors adequately. But different people have different timeframes. For me, the whole point of REITs is to own a good selection and invest in those with strong management over the cycle, marginally buying those as they lose favour (so NRR, ESP, AEWL) and marginally selling those as they become expensive (PHP). As well as a core holding.

Play your cards right and 9 to 10% per annum is reasonable. The clobbering retail has taken has pushed NRR down too far (it’s watered-down retail). What we cannot say easily is where NRR would be absent of a bunch of needy sellers (some quite desperate). I would estimate 245p - where it was prior to the NW implosion, and maybe a little higher as the market was expecting some problems from those quarters. But as a medium/long-term holder, I really don’t care much (mildly happy). Of course, it’s nice to time to perfection, but I still see lower prices (from where we are now) and expect to buy more as and when.

The monosyllabic “retail sales are crashing” is of little interest to me as we know that anyway! So does the market. A large fall in GDP owing to a messy Brexit is a bigger concern of mine, but I look to hedge that out otherwise. Also, it says nothing of the relative value of NRR, but we can leave that for another day.

[urbanvoltage] 10/7/2019 16:03

It means their tenants will try and renegotiate the rents.It also means the value of assets will fall and the dividend, which is not fully covered, to be reduced.Personally I'm waiting for the dividend cut before I buy.

[asmodeus] 10/7/2019 15:26

There is certainly bad news for retail property, but can we be sure that necessarily means bad nnes for New River ?

[fenners66] 10/7/2019 13:27

ONS -

"In May 2019, online retailing accounted for 19.3% of total retailing, with an overall growth of 8.2% when compared with the same month a year earlier."

[fenners66] 10/7/2019 13:24

chucko1 - "sales in its properties will hold up OK in the face of lower sales in typical shopping malls etc."

So you did not go and look up the June retail sales stats then?
Of course if they are full of detail you don't want to see .... but that's exactly why you should look up the detail if you are invested in retail property.

As I referred to the sales data (the Whole UK market) included a 4% rise in online sales whilst the total suffered the worst month on month drop on record. The message is clear retail sales are in trouble but the only bright spot is online which of course does not need retail shop premises.

Marks & Spencer announces that the closure of 110 shops may not be all.

I have been discussing on this board for 18m (or more) why the retail market is in a spin and that the surplus of retail property has to affect all property companies.
A lot here have refuted there will be any effect.
I also said that sentiment affects share prices before reality hits the results - so disregarding the results to come the share price has fallen. You cannot blame that all on Woodford.

The bad news for retail property is still coming and sentiment is still getting worse.

[essentialinvestor] 10/7/2019 13:16

Only bought one item in the sales this year, an online purchase of an RL Purple Label shirt, waited in nearly the entire day and it did not look as nice as on the web,
still need to return it.

Any thoughts on how low this could go?.

[ramellous] 10/7/2019 13:07

I don’t think I’ve seen this recent video posted. AL talking about tie up with Pimco.

[hpcg] 10/7/2019 10:35

Anecdotally I know some people (females) in their mid twenties that are heading in the opposite direction - shopping more in store than online. Returns and mis-delivered items are a time killer and negate the convenience of the purchase. For staples / FMCG shops are simply cheaper. What we are seeing right now is the UK in recession. Or certainly a consumer recession which is pertinent to this board. The share price will likely continue down but people buying at this level will see a medium term return.

[rcturner2] 10/7/2019 07:34

I suggest folk here have a look at Superdry's final results, published today. They are a prime example of yet another retailer going down the toilet.