Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[bondholder] 10/7/2019 00:36

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/09/half-of-uk-retail-sales-will-be-online-within-10-years-report-predicts

[hugepants] 09/7/2019 23:06

Can anyone explain this from the final results.

"Like-for-like footfall across shopping centres declined -2.4%; ahead of the UK benchmark by 20 bps"

So they beat the UK average. Just! I thought they were supposed to be insulated. This is actually a bigger drop than reported by INTU and HMSO.

[chucko1] 09/7/2019 22:48

That’s the whole point. The NRR investment thesis is partly that sales in its properties will hold up OK in the face of lower sales in typical shopping malls etc. Their argument is that they see growth in convenience at the same order of size as that of internet. We all know the rest is struggling, but is NRR a good risk? To my mind, very much so (at around the current sp, though may well go somewhat lower with Woodford and “fear”). Especially if you have a hedge against “over borrowed UK” - which helps to explain the trending lower retail sales figures. Pubs and development (and consultancy, now) improve the risk somewhat.

But if these sales figures are not really granular, then they are of limited use as far as NRR analysis goes. And you would not expect them to be if merely lifted from the “i” newspaper.

[m_kerr] 09/7/2019 21:58

doesn't surprise me fenners, some great deals to be had at the moment for us customers. i still go to the supermarket, go to the pub and pick up my prescription, though.

[fenners66] 09/7/2019 11:50

I (paper) reports retail sales for June worst month on month fall on record.
That included a 4% increase in online sales.

Look it up , that is not anecdotal data.

[rcturner2] 09/7/2019 10:52

I think so Bondholder. On paper with the discount to NAV and the yield this looks very attractive, as do plenty of other REITs.

What is clear to me is that the NAV will continue to fall and the income will also fall which will bring the yield down. How far this goes is anyone's guess, but I don't see the point of buying at this level with so much uncertainty.

[bondholder] 09/7/2019 10:30

Don't understand why some think that the average 30% rent reductions Next are getting on lease renewals won't be reflected on other retailers. In addition as retail moves in 5/10 years towards 50% online there are very likely to be a second /third wave of reductions on future reviews. Suspect many blinded by the current dividend.

[riverman77] 08/7/2019 13:36

While NRR has exposure to more resilient areas of retail (discounters, etc), my main concern is the massive demand/supply imbalance in the retail sector - there is still way too much property relative to demand and this means values will keep falling. When taking into account the forced seller issue I am staying firmly on the sidelines but might consider if it goes below 150. I hold HMSO which is on a much bigger discount than NRR, and around half the portfolio is in European assets which don't face the same demand/supply imbalance.

[fenners66] 08/7/2019 13:03

Or you could wait until the water laps around your feet when someone calls a Tsunami warning....choose your beach carefully....

[fenners66] 08/7/2019 11:32

chucko1 - you want real data instead on anecdotal - fair enough
However waiting for real "data" means you will be as informed as the whole market - "perfect markets theory" but the market will have moved before you can.

What I would say is look at "Debsdowners" posts on the Debs BB - I think he still is posting retail stories and data.
I am sure he posted many times the data on footfall, and say from the likes of John Lewis up to date retail takings data - he was supporting the bear case against DEBS with retail data in general.

The trend was definitely down.

[chucko1] 08/7/2019 11:18

Sorry, but I cannot see the point of this anecdotal stuff. Sampling frequency has to be pretty high, and unless you go pretty well every day in all sorts of weather conditions, times when there is/is not some sporting event or similar and can also accurately measure it against something equivalent and meaningful, it’s best to look for real data.

The key thing (remains) for me the rent change upon letting renewal. Obviously, but the rest is just noise in comparison. You can certainly argue that the anecdotal stuff is indicative of the likely direction of renewals, except - as I argue - for being highly unreliable.

[cc2014] 08/7/2019 10:34

I went shopping over the weekend and I observed plenty of footfall. Hard to get a car park space. NXT was packed. Arcadia not.

[hpcg] 08/7/2019 10:12

With ASC laying off 100 staff I think it is fair to say we are already in at least a retail recession, if not a notional national one. Construction another sector under the cosh. Recessions can of course get worse but shop closures we have been seeing are cyclical as well as secular.

[rcturner2] 08/7/2019 10:05

You need to go to some of these places outside the weekend. No retail unit can survive on weekend trade alone.

I live near MK and tend to do my shopping on a Wednesday afternoon, the place is deserted. I can park in the free car park and shop in total peace and calm.

Next for example which is quite a big unit in MK is often completely empty.

[zccax77] 06/7/2019 18:43

Dorothy perkins and Topshop will probably vacate, so that is five empty units. Time to bargepole anything which includes fast fashion. Though Primark is a huge plus.

[ramellous] 06/7/2019 13:51

Having a wander round the Cornmill centre in Darlington at the mo. One of NRRs centres. Seems busy enough. Only 3 units empty. Has a Next,Dot Perkins, jd sports, Topshop, Greggs, Tesco Express, primary, Superdrug etc. Pleasant environment.

Greenwood’s has closed but opposite is a big nail bar/ head massage place. Seems busy. Changing face of retail.
There’s quite an active HMV, lads thumbing through vinyl lps with jethro Tull on the sound system, thought I was back in 70s lol

[fenners66] 06/7/2019 09:26

Double post

[fenners66] 06/7/2019 09:18

DM article headline says 3,000 bookies shops to close.

Bet some on here still believe that there will be no effect.....

[asmodeus] 05/7/2019 15:38

Bought. :)

[eeza] 05/7/2019 14:59

Always darkest just before dawn.

But sometimes you die in your sleep.