Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[eeza] 20/6/2019 10:15

Getting its skates on now.

[spectoacc] 20/6/2019 08:46

Good performance so far to be fair.

[ramellous] 20/6/2019 08:34

Ex div today

[chucko1] 19/6/2019 17:20

He had double that a few weeks back. Yup, it’s a long slog, but patience will be rewarded. (pun intended, along with a mountain of irony).

An 11% yield, largely covered, is a decent selling point for those flogging these things for Woody. That 195p offer we discussed a week or so back is not far from the mark.

[cc2014] 19/6/2019 15:59

Down to 12.78% now. He's still got 39m.

I thought he'd shifted more than that these last few days.

[spectoacc] 19/6/2019 15:47

Woody still got a heck of a lot to sell I guess - might fancy him doing it post-XD.

[skinny] 19/6/2019 15:45

:-)

I thought there may be a premium today on the back of it - currently down 3.20p

[spectoacc] 19/6/2019 15:42

Odds on it opening down 5.5p tomorrow? ;)

[skinny] 19/6/2019 15:35

Not much interest in ex dividend tomorrow 5.4p.

[wskill] 17/6/2019 13:21

At least with our 11% yield we are being paid to wait, very happy to have waited a few weeks as was going to invest at £2.30 but then this woody thing started off so held off buying managed to buy 50% what i require around £1.93p average and will await developments before buying the rest, if there is no trade buyer we could go even lower madness I know but that is what we have today in the market.

[cc2014] 17/6/2019 12:59

At £600m market cap that 4.5m share transaction is 1.5% of the total share capital.

My guess is Woodford will have to sell NRR in WIF down first in order to meet redemptions on that fund. WIF was £350m 7 days ago, so I'm guessing £320m now and overall the next couple of months will fall to say £200m where it will stabilise (or the fund redemptions will be so slow as not to impact).

WEIF is another matter. I can't see it opening for any length of time and whilst NRR would fit with the new mantra of mostly FTSE100 and some FTSE250 he's going to have to sell some (most) NRR to help meet redemptions. Current fund value £3.3b. I can see that falling to £0.5b-£1.0b within a year unless the fund manager is changed.


I shall watch and wait. I'd like to pick up some more but only at crazy low prices. Not sure if I will get the opportunity or not. Woodford has other stuff he will have to dump but tbh 75% of what he holds I wouldn't touch at any price.

[eeza] 17/6/2019 12:50

May find a trade buyer.

[spectoacc] 17/6/2019 12:32

At some point, Woody will still have to sell the WEIF holding in NRR. Could be a long road ahead.

[cc2014] 17/6/2019 11:23

Price rising nicely today. Either that 4.5m trade at 194.4 is a buy and accounts for the price rise or is NW dumping stock and it's a protected transaction at VWAP or whatever that NW's broker has been working for the last week.

I don't really care. There seems no selling pressure at all today

[nickname27] 17/6/2019 10:47

Hmmm, that could have been better timed

[spectoacc] 13/6/2019 15:49

HMSO, INTU, NRR similar enough to think they've been (incorrectly) lumped in together.

From recent RNS's:

- SJP have the 5% from Woodford that was transferred via mandate - will wait to see what they do with them.

- Woodford has cut a few more, presumably from IFF on redemptions (lost £100m in less than 2 weeks, allegedly £50m of withdrawals inside 2 days)

- Invesco have cut a small number. Barnett is (justifiably) suffering redemptions now too, and may be mildly rebalancing. Just speculation tho, not sure the size of his redemptions. Remember he was buying only weeks ago, in the 240's, from Woody! Once again, the only time Neil can make a good trade is when he's forced out of something (he saved £100's of millions of losses on IMB by being forced out of his most liquid position).

[cc2014] 13/6/2019 12:33

For comparison. It would seem the sector is now off the bottom althogh those will more retail are still struggling

[mridyard] 13/6/2019 12:12

I took a position in NRR yesterday. The company accounts states that they replaced £680 million of secured borrowings with unsecured borrowings. Nevertheless there is still covenants that need to be met. The accounts don't say what these limits are but they do state the target figures.I would expect the target figures to overlap the covenants. LTV, interest cover and secured borrowings.

[spectoacc] 13/6/2019 10:27

Agreed @EI. Same applies to all the property punts of course - a long time since we've had a recession..

@CC2014 - good point, "10% -2.5%" pretty much what we're getting atm!

[essentialinvestor] 13/6/2019 10:16

Keeping the politics to one side, if we leave without a deal odds of a recession
markedly increase. I can't see that as a supportive environment to either NAV or
their rent roll outlook.

[cc2014] 13/6/2019 10:04

NRR LTV is 37%.


Fenners "Problem is I look for high yields where I think the dividend is sustainable."
I think the challenge here is sifting the wheat from the chaff and it takes a huge amount of time, energy and skill to do this.

I have found if you ignore the very high paying dividends and wind the requirement back to 6% yield, lots of options open up. At 7% things start getting a bit sticky and alot more sifting is required.

Tbh here although I would enjoy capital appreciation and the dividend yield, if I end up with 10% dividend and 2.5% capital loss that will do me. Anything else is a bonus.

[shawzie] 13/6/2019 09:46

RCTurner2
From NRR website "All of our debt is unsecured and our assets unencumbered."
Does this not make it different from other REITs in relation to "the bank will come calling"?

[lord gnome] 13/6/2019 09:42

fenners66 - I think you and I agree on the EU. The biggest threat to Britain is not leaving on 31 October.

[rcturner2] 13/6/2019 09:21

All of the REITs have debts with covenants tied to LTV. So rent levels dont actually matter, they can be servicing all their debt and still the bank will come calling. Remember these are GEARED plays on property values not just a nice dividend paid by rents.