Ncondezi Energy Share Discussion Threads

[imjustdandy] 14/1/2018 22:22

Ncondezi Energy is focused on the phased development of its large scale, long life, integrated thermal coal mine and up to 1,800MW power plant project in Mozambique. Originally an export coking coal play, Ncondezi has invested significant resources in scoping the nearby 4.8bn tonne JORC compliant coal project. The mine is anticipated as being the sole supplier to the power plant. The shares are down nearly 80% over 3 months on the back of delays on closing a deal with Shanghai Electric Power (SEP). Nearly a year and a half after signing the Joint Development Agreement, Ncondezi last week announced that it had suspended exclusive discussions with SEP and will now engage with additional strategic partners who have expressed an unsolicited interest in developing the project alongside Ncondezi.· Time is of the essence for Ncondezi which has received indications of interest for an additional US$350k shareholder loan which would fund the company until 2 September. This has not as yet been finalised. Ncondezi is also actively engaging with Shareholder Loan holders to seek an acceptable funding solution ahead of loans expiring in September. · The project will require funding of circa $1bn to implement the 300MW plant and transmission line with optionality to increase capacity thereafter. · Sub Saharan Africa is woefully underpowered and the proposed site is ideally located to plug into the existing network with potential to extend supply into South Africa, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia and Zambia. · This is a very advanced project and therefore has a good chance of securing high quality partners. The fact that the company has received unsolicited approaches is encouraging. A feasibility study and all technical documentation has been completed, a Power Purchase Agreement has been agreed in principle with a local utility, all relevant Social Impact and Environmental studies, land use rights and other permits are in place, the mine concession has been awarded and access to the power grid has been approved, indicating Government support. · The first 300MW stage of the power plant has been estimated to generate US$130m of EBITDA annually. Ncondezi's very existence hangs in the balance as reflected by the sub £5m market cap. Should it find a way through to financial close, even a 10% share in the project could be worth more than 10x this amount. We applaud management's decision to take back control of the project. Stimulating competition amongst potential partners may help to secure a favourable outcome for shareholders.

[m1sak] 14/1/2018 17:08

The bids have not been submitted yet, we do not know what percentage we will end up with, so valuations are guesswork at this stage.

But seeing you have been here for ages, you should know that?

[imjustdandy] 14/1/2018 16:12

You didn't answer my question. Furthermore there's a 20m sign on fee at JDA

[m1sak] 14/1/2018 13:48

For a start it is in dollars......and any income is four years away!

Will you be here then?

[imjustdandy] 14/1/2018 11:06

Interested to hear how you value £30m of annual positive cash flows to Ncondezi. So many experts here , however let's understand your sensible valuation M1sak

[m1sak] 14/1/2018 11:01

Figures are way out Dandy!

As usual your over exuberance gets you carried away.

Keep it sensible

[imjustdandy] 14/1/2018 08:41

Just listened to the Vox podcast. £30m of annual cash inflows to NCCL. £30m on a multiple of 10x is worth £300m to us. Current share price 4p , £300m is worth £1.15. Potential £1.11 upside here. Best coal to power project on Aim.GE getting ever closer to signing. Once they sign then these numbers will kick in.

[escapetohome] 12/1/2018 23:15

Thanks M1sak
Nice update.
Very bullish here!

[m1sak] 12/1/2018 23:10

escapetohome, Yes, I am still here and buying in small amounts every so often.

All news is in the RNS releases, we will receive an update in February. I understand the management are very confident this time round.
All workstreams are being completed by GE/CMEC staff on the ground.
It will still take time though, the costings are due in Feb, with due diligence scheduled for completion by the end of April. Once all figures are fed into the mixer, we hope to sign off our JV by July at the latest.
I still intend to add over the coming months.

[escapetohome] 12/1/2018 19:37

Is M1sak still around, he seemed to have a handle to some extent of what was happening behind the scenes, and his viewpoint was appreciated.

I wonder how many investors have?

I have around 50,000 or so.

[imjustdandy] 12/1/2018 19:30

GE deal getting ever closer. Best coal to power play on Aim.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 11/1/2018 12:57

New Moz-Malawi line will connect into the same part of the Moz grid as #NCCL . Part of Moz's plan further grow as a regional power player. 12% of Malawians currently have access to power. Good potential for more power from Moz in the future. clubofmozambique.com/news/malawi-mo... via @twitter

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 09/1/2018 17:57

On the @VOXmarkets podcast, Hanno Pengilly Chief Development Officer of @Ncondezi_Energy #NCCL gives an update on its process to conclude a binding Joint Development Agreement for the Company's integrated 300MW power and coal mine project in Mozambique.> bit.ly/VOXPOD0962

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 08/1/2018 17:31

If indeed some were running a short position here and are closing out for one reason or another then that can only be beneficial to the re-rate towards news.

[imjustdandy] 08/1/2018 17:07

Massively important quarter for the company as they move ever closer to a deal with GE.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 06/1/2018 17:01

Studies indicate that by 2030 SA could face a power supply gap of between 6 and 10 GW, SA has a long-term energy strategy to produce sufficient electricity through reliable and diversified sources that include a mix of nuclear, coal, natural gas, hydropower and renewables #NCCL

[imjustdandy] 05/1/2018 21:02

Should be a very positive month for Ncondezi as negotiations move forward with GE. Any suggested price targets ?

[escapetohome] 05/1/2018 18:20

Oh dear shorts!

Im back in as of yesterday!

Close em and fast.

Im buying.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 05/1/2018 17:38

If those shorts can't close until much much higher.... well.

[imjustdandy] 05/1/2018 16:07

Shorts bidding for 500,000 at 3.9.

[novicetrade68] 05/1/2018 15:46

5000 shares at 4.50p is all I get atm.

[imjustdandy] 05/1/2018 15:32

Seen nothing yet

[novicetrade68] 05/1/2018 15:31

Yep indeed. Good to see no one was falling for the naughty bid drop.