Ncondezi Energy Share Discussion Threads

[dontay] 04/8/2018 10:54

Hopefully all parties will have assembled all their ducks in a row and be ready for the workshop to convene by the end of next week. Given the stated number of items on the agenda there is an enormous amount of very serious work to wade through. There could well be many referrals by the workshop negotiators amongst the different interest group for more detailed information which is all going to take time to bring back to the table for more discussions. If everything on the agenda gets agreed, completed and signed off by all parties to the workshop by the end of August they will have done well,

[yogaboy] 04/8/2018 09:26

Workshop timing is planned for early August 2018. Updated timetable for key milestones including the power tariff sign off, Power Purchase Agreement ("PPA") negotiations, Financial Close ("FC") and the date of first power on the grid expected to be agreed during the Workshop.Further updates will be provided after the Workshop has been concluded. So all the good news should arrive within a fortnight...

[imjustdandy] 04/8/2018 05:58

I reckon workshop next week with updates around mid August which gives them an opportunity to respond/finalise any loose ends. At least it's coming to a final conclusion this month. I know it's been a long wait for us LTH but we're Almost there now guys. The reward will be well with it.

[splatted] 03/8/2018 22:46

Just a waiting game. The workshop has or will very soon begin. Results of which follow once concluded. Very excitng times! Enjoy the calm ;-)

[thetrophyman] 03/8/2018 20:17

Very quiet over here...

[devonlad] 31/7/2018 16:24

Had a nibble at a few more, initial buy was woefully timed as per usual but it looks like the sellers have cleared!

[terranadonjohnson] 31/7/2018 16:10

would it be ramping if i said "...summat's going on." ;-))

[splatted] 31/7/2018 16:01

Who would have thunk it. An african govornment causing delays. Difference here is that this mine and plant is on their 10 year plan.just make sure the brown envelopes are big enough

[terranadonjohnson] 31/7/2018 15:09

remembering tariff was meant to be submitted in june initially. then the results rns said sometime in july. next we hear about some August Workshop lol

just saying.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 31/7/2018 09:45

Very interesting indeed

[splatted] 31/7/2018 08:35

Interesting days and weeks! You are not kidding!! This workshop starting in days seems to be to discuss absolutely everything including FC. Is a buyout on the cards. Smart money would be topping up on this amazing opportunity in the drop gla

[kingkongtimmo] 30/7/2018 19:33

Have been adding albeit in small chunks last few days, hope to get s few trades over the line next week as I've a feeling it's not going to stay quiet here for long

[terranadonjohnson] 29/7/2018 22:08

if GE& CMEC were going to buy nccl out and soon, then could imagine that a decision could've turned on tariff, leading to change of plan. that August workshop could be about a lot more than just tariff and canopies.

interesting days and weeks ahead.

[terranadonjohnson] 29/7/2018 18:38

value for us especially lies in what GE & CMEC pay for the percentages above 60% they decide to take. This will be a fair chunk.

people are being conservative when we've already been told revenues and taxes and royalties. those numbers are huge an point to big returns for the project/ GE & CMEC. an that's just for the 300MW. that's like compound interest when you scale up to 1800MW.

one of the other reasons why GE may not keep us.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 27/7/2018 17:29

20% of the project is fine, I really don't understand why people are still going over this, it's been done to death. NEL retaining even 10% plus cashback is also fine. JDA is knocking.

[divmad] 27/7/2018 15:45

Yes the project is happening, but who will grab the lion's share of the cream? Of course it is GE and CMEC, in return for fronting the capex and operational risk in the spv. Lurker is right in saying that Nccl will not get much back over and above its sunk costs and a "finder's fee" premium, as a goodwill gesture. If the capex is , say, $300mn to get the first 300MW into production, then Nccl might choose to keep a 10% free carried interest in return for giving up its $30mn of back costs etc. Just illustrative figures as I don't know the detailed capex .

So, following on, GE and CMEC would also be the major if not sole beneficiaries of the modular scale-up in capacity to 1080MW. Why would they give Nccl a generous free ride on something that hasn't been built or approved yet, but which will cost many $hundreds if not a cool $bn,, of their own hard-earned cash reserves?

[terranadonjohnson] 27/7/2018 11:57

think we differ in that I believe project npv is significant enough to allow them to buy the spv outright. GE and CMEC would then scale up to 1800MW and make further killing. think about it, revenues of $300million annually, then multiply by that by five or six.

if anything, keeping nccl on board presents its own risks, too many industry sensitive elements that GE especially, won't want to give away to nccl, because if they do, it will travel beyond the partnership (theres a big difference to how GE are conducting things here compared say to lamu, particularly because they will majority partners)

whatever happens, this project is happening

[lurker5] 27/7/2018 11:46

Quite TerraD But GE/CMEC won't 'buy' the remaining 40% from NCCL. Why 'pay' for it, and then have to invest the extra 40% of the $1bn project cost ? NCCL happens to have clocked up some $30m odd of the project cost (or the equity) by way of the planning and feasibility studies as well as contacts etc. So it has that share of the project (equity) without having to pay or invest or borrow anything else from now on. But that $30m is all it has to 'sell' to the others. If it did it would crystalise it in the form of cash or whatever. It might get a bit more than that in the form of a development premium 'thank you for setting it all up' but the other partners couldn't afford to give any significant 'free carry' to someone who doesn't put up their share of the project cost. As sponsor with all the licences etcstill, NCCL can dictate whether it keeps its $30m share invested in the project, which might be better in the long run for its own shareholders. Or, as someone says, it could take the loot and invest it somewhere else (or even return it to shareholders !)But it wouldn't on those figures be worth much more than the present market cap.

[terranadonjohnson] 27/7/2018 11:19

is possible for GE and CMEC to take/buy entire special purpose vehicle or spv (this is the corporate vehicle or mechanism that houses the project)

nccl and spv aren't the same thing

GE and CMEC buying 100% of SPV would leave nccl without a project, just a 'shell' company, which could be wound down (with shareholders retiring with their windfall) or chase some other investment opportunities with the funds.

it may not happen but it isn't daft to think its a possibility.

in terms return for GE and CMEC (if they have to fork out a wedge to buy it), they take/buy spv on basis of 300mw and then scale-up to 1800mw.

also, can't think how risk is materially different from 80% GE and CMEC combined and 100% combined. at a combined 80%, risk largely falls on them anyway.

then again, long term prospects are immense also, so nccl may prefer to remain involved.

[yogaboy] 27/7/2018 11:13

Not having a go at you clock, please don't take it that way.Just speculating that there are many ways to "invest in" the project, and if GE/CMEC are considering taking 100% between them, then buying NCCL would be one way to achieve that. Given the fickle nature of shareholders, who wouldn't take (say) a 40p cash offer right now? The NCCL structure - whatever is is - could then be collapsed into a simple JV company owned by the two participants.Thus I remain of the view that all outcomes are possible.Let's keep in mind that NCCL is a minnow hanging on to a bag of fish food, negotiating to share it with an Orca and a Great White - one of which has just announced a strategic change of direction.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 27/7/2018 10:52

I never have said that they would bid for NCCL nor NEL but that percentage of the project that they "buy" with back costs is worth c23p by Lurkers calculations. That's just 20%. What if we "sell" another 10%? Tick tock.

[yogaboy] 27/7/2018 09:46

On balance I think lurker's right that GE won't bid for NCCL, but it is always a course of action available to them. It wouldn't need NCCL's cooperation or consent.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 27/7/2018 09:26

"20% is what NCCL will probably have ( due past spending contribution ) but on my own guess it's likely to be more than 3x currently"So c23p then.

[lurker5] 27/7/2018 09:18

clockwork your 4744 - that's precisely what I was saying.

[terranadonjohnson] 27/7/2018 09:12

when a pessimist says that :)