National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[lippy4] 23/5/2024 15:21

phillis

explain please..

[phillis] 23/5/2024 15:02

It’s called a “terp ” chaps

[lippy4] 23/5/2024 14:51

yes if labour get in i think the water companies are in for a hard time..

[lippy4] 23/5/2024 14:48

pierre

so you will not be buying the new shares i assume??

[viscount1] 23/5/2024 14:48

Setting aside the rights issue, the results look pretty good? I like the focus on networks and dropping extraneous stuff. Debt looks high but that is a feature of this line of business, and they have a good credit rating. Cash generation is good.

Unless I am missing something, the 10% price drop today is mostly poor sentiment on the rights issue, which looks overblown. Some of the drop might be the election announcement (regulated utilities are all down today - UU down 4%).

[goodnight1] 23/5/2024 14:48

I do not think your working with the rights is correct above.
The 6.00 p.m. on 20 May 2024 was xr so the shares were say 24*£11.29 =270.96 before then.

So now you have the right to 7 new shares at £6.45 = 45.15

Before the rights you had £270.96 invested. After you have 270.96+45.15= 316.11 or
316.11/31 = £10.20 per share.

This would mean the rights are worth 10.2-6.45 = £3.75 per share

Profits were not too bad but 2-3% down on previous announcements.

[skinny] 23/5/2024 14:38

I see the other utilities have recovered some of their earlier falls.

[skinny] 23/5/2024 14:36

It does stink - these were my biggest holding by value until this morning. 🙄

Toying with the day's low.

[1knocker] 23/5/2024 14:21

I bought my holding at 583 in December 2018. My capital profit has taken a nasty hit, and the dividend is going to be cut too.

I shall probably take up my rights. The new capital is hardly going to make a dent in the capex which will be required if the the grid is to be remodelled, and the govt can't afford to pay for that so the company is going to have to borrow a fortune, even if this is not the last capital raise. That is only going to be possible if the regulator loosens the reigns. I think it will (with govt acquiescence), because without a remodelled grid the govt is going to have to admit that the curent renewables plans are a non-starter. Moreover increases in transmission charges t consumers are less visible and thus less politically toxic than increases in generation charges.

Most of the capex will be mis-allocated capital of course, but utility shareholders get a return on 'investment' whether it is misguided or not.

[bountyhunter] 23/5/2024 14:08

I understand the theory anhar but no-one knows by exactly how much the share price may drop back and I've explained the whole picture for me. On XD dates the drop often exceeds the dividend amount and the same may happen tomorrow when XR If not then I won't be buying back.

[anhar] 23/5/2024 13:34

There's no free lunch in selling cr today and repurchasing at a much lower price xr tomorrow because you lose the npr entitlement, currently worth an estimated 286p each. (931 - 645).

I stress that these figures may change with market prices.

[bountyhunter] 23/5/2024 13:27

Details of the rights issue are temporarily at the top of the header for easy reference.

Initially seeing the price drop today I had assumed ex-rights today. Having just caught up I see it's tomorrow! Frankly I'm disgusted at this wholesale destruction in value and timing evidenced by the 10% drop today and have sold out - I may buy back tomorrow. My NG. holding was with FreeTrade and it seems that they don't process rights issues(!?) - I've questioned this but have decided to sell today based on the little information I have on this! Does anyone here have any knowledge of how FreeTrade process rights issues and if they do now do this? I have to wait 1-2 days for a reply from them which is too long given the XR date tomorrow.

[stoopid] 23/5/2024 13:20

Agree, with the rights fully in place the share price is equivalent to about 920, from 1127 prior to the rights issue.That's why I'm surprised it hasn't fallen more today as the nil pairs start trading tomorrow.Share price should drop to 920/930 and then we will see where it goes from there.If it drops below, I will be tempted to buy.

[steveyc1] 23/5/2024 12:59

It’s not clear as the date of the 20th of May is also mentioned. I’d like clarity on this as it’s not clear and makes a big difference. I’d also assumed the 10% drop factored in the rights issue but if it hasn’t then it’ll drop by another 10% tomorrow which feels too much

[cynicalsteve] 23/5/2024 12:51

Looking at the share price I'd assumed the shares had gone ex-rights but I've just realised that the shares don't go ex-rights till tomorrow. A fall in the share price is to be expected as some shareholders raise cash to take up their rights but 10% seems too much. Looks like the market isn't happy. Maybe announcing it the day after a surprise election was one surprise too many?

[anhar] 23/5/2024 12:03

Share price is 10% down so the market hates either the results, the rights issue, or both.

Not hate as shares always fall on a rights issue. That's because the rights have to be priced well below the previous market price to make them sufficiently attractive. So the resulting price has to fall to between the rights cost and the earlier share price.

[anhar] 23/5/2024 12:00

One interesting calculation arises from divis on the rights shares. These cost 645p and NG. states that divis will be cut by an estimated 15% from the 2024 rights-adjusted figure of 53p, making about 45p. This means the forward yield on subscribed rights shares will be a high 7.0%, a tempting yield for an income player like me.

[viscount1] 23/5/2024 11:59

Share price is 10% down so the market hates either the results, the rights issue, or both.

[utyinv] 23/5/2024 11:56

Did any of you just watch the Results presentation?

Andy Agg was commenting in part to a question, where he said with the expansion / investments (based both in UK and USA) the eventual asset worth will be £100billion. With the rights issue there will eventually be 4.7 billion shares in circ. So simple maths:- 100 / 4.7 = £21.27 by 2030????

BTW for those querying corporate action notification, most platforms will be issuing corporate action notification tomorrow.

[garycook] 23/5/2024 11:54

hiddendepths, Surely if you want to buy NG today. Wait until tomorrow, when the share price will be around 924p, which equates to buying them today with the Rights !

[bargainsniper] 23/5/2024 11:54

The £60bn investment plan will be funded by the largest rights issue in Europe for 15 years outside the banking sector, by tapping the debt markets, and by selling its liquified natural gas terminal on the Isle of Grain, east of London. It also plans to sell its US onshore wind and solar business, but remains interested investing in US offshore wind projects.

[dr biotech] 23/5/2024 11:49

Some brokers will offer the choice of you

1) Taking some or all of the rights
2)Not taking the rights and then they will sell the rights to the underwriters
3) "tail swallowing". They will sell a proportion of the rights and with the money raised will buy shares. The cost to you should be nil (less fees etc). They do the calculation automatically.

Think I may take up most of mine. Have a dividend from AV to invest today, that will pretty much balance out.