National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[utyinv] 12/11/2017 14:06

FYI only,

John Pettigrew CEO of National Grid has just been appointed to the 'Board' of Rentokill aa a Non-Exec Director.

He will take up the new position on 1st Jan 2018.

[careful] 10/11/2017 19:19

The only thing we can predict with certainty is that we will still be agonising about our relationship with Europe.

500 years and counting.

[careful] 10/11/2017 19:16

Always difficult to predict the future.
In the 1970's we were to run out of oil by now.
Things change very slowly.

That original Bladerunner film of the 1980's.
We were to have replicants that looked like beauty queens.
Hard to spot the difference from the real thing.
Those transport vehicles.
Not even close.

Cars and jumbo jets look very similar today than they did 30 years ago.
No Concorde, now that is a change.

I do not think that all electric will take off.
Internal combustion engines will be everywhere in 30 years as now.

[utyinv] 10/11/2017 18:22

LOL ! It looks like Deutsche has NG as a 'Sell' with the GBP 9.0 target programmed to be published every few days. Hasn't anybody told them that its already hit £8.94? Does that mean Deutsche now believe NG to be a 'Buy'? :)

[1662] 10/11/2017 16:46

m100 Very interesting information you have put forward.

The below link is a interesting read, it is basically National Grid saying that we won't be charging our cars at home, we will be charging them in charging point stations with fast charging points that could charge a car in 10 minutes.

hxxp://fes.nationalgrid.com/media/1281/forecourt-thoughts-v12.pdf

[m100] 10/11/2017 16:04

'Local generation' being across an area maybe 30-50 miles x 30-50 miles with embedded renewables balanced by Small Modular Reactors at the existing Grid suppply points Fossil fuels will be totally off limits by 2050. Individual demand per person / per household being matched to generation and controlled by real time pricing. The need to shunt energy around the country will be a very distant memory.

[careful] 10/11/2017 15:41

local generation?
a zillion windmills, or diesel , or gas, how many local generation plant to replace the big stations, including nuclear.
Going electric and carbon free could be a dirty business.

[m100] 10/11/2017 15:30

"Think of the potential of 25 million cars drawing electricty from the national grid."

Can't recall where I saw the figures but the private motorist does around 7500 miles per annum, 140 miles per week, well within the range of one 'charge' Even if everyone transitioned it's 100kW*52*25 million = 130TWh/annum, about 1/3 more than the UK uses per annum at the moment (circa 350TWh)

Take typical usage of a couple of hours a day and you potentially have at least 150 hours a week to accumulate a full charge, or about 600W for 22 hours a day, with maybe around 40 hours a week 'at the office' rather than at home

Very little of that additional demand will require additional grid infrastructure spend, the majority will be at the DNO level (what used to be the local electricity board) and the impact of fully decarbonising home heating and hot water by 2050 will impact the local networks much more.

Embedded generation with waste to energy plants will also become more common as landfill becomes more expensive, the sites get full and the potential of an income stream from waste is recognised.

It's quite possible that a National Grid will not be required 30-40 years hence, local generation and local demand being the norm.

[1662] 10/11/2017 14:43

atkantic57 In my opinion this stock is one to keep. It is the one company that everyone in the UK uses everyday, the only downside is that it could be a target for politics, Labour wanting to nationalise it, Conservatives wanting to implement a energy price cap.

I think that nat grid can weather the storm and stay strong, I will certainly but more if it drops to 900.

As for the charging points for electric cars, they could be on the cusp of something big. Think of the potential of 25 million cars drawing electricty from the national grid.

Plus they have a nice divi yield of over 5%.

[careful] 10/11/2017 14:38

That is a question we all struggle with, sell/hold or add.
Already 20% down from its peak.

Amazed how low these shares go sometimes when the high frequency algo momentum traders get into their stride.
Fundamentals do not seem to count anymore.

I will hold, take the divi's and look away.

[atlantic57] 10/11/2017 14:03

careful thank you is this stock one to avoid or one to tuck away..

[careful] 10/11/2017 13:59

I am still holding these.
but the 2 way political risk is real.
As stated in todays Telegraph, both Labour and tories have power costs in their sights.

NG. defended itself yesterday saying that since privatisation transmission costs have reduced 36% in real terms, and that many billions have been invested updating infrastructure.

But with this pathetically weak government a robust defence of the advantages of privatisation will not happen. Come back Maggie.

HMG fear inflation, and the Brexit disaster has not even begun yet.
Tough times head.

[atlantic57] 10/11/2017 13:51

Forgive me ,why has ng slumped from around 10.60 to below £9 in a short time frame.No doubt there has been detailed discussion. However per the boe the threat of rising interest rates seems muted, therefore the de facto bond argument seems to lack credibility.


Any summary comments appreciated.

[bountyhunter] 10/11/2017 12:25

good point, but do NG have any plans to set up a network of charging points - presumably it will just 3rd parties?

either way of course a lot more electricity will be needed if to replace petrol/diesel

it would be a bit of an irony if the extra electricity was generated with gas fired generators although presumably more efficient with less pollution overall

[1662] 09/11/2017 22:18

Have no plans of ever selling my holding of National Grid.

The banning of combustible engine cars will surely help Nat Grid, all the charging points for electric cars will make the National Grid a lot of money?

Big things ahead for the National Grid as long as Jeremy Corbyn doesn't get into Number 10.

[septimus quaid] 09/11/2017 21:09

Can’t get away from them, saw a national grid liveried van at Jamaica Plain, Boston today.

[prewar] 09/11/2017 19:34

Results didn't look great today, lots of commentary on political risk, they referred directly to Hinkley which must be a big concern as to the future direction of travel.

I think the RIIO T2 equity element of the return will get battered in the next agreement, see presentations from the links below:





On the positive side high RPI currently and there's a fair bit of cost that could probably come out of the business if push came to shove.

I think £8 is a distinct possibility, it'll lose 15% of the drop to get there when it goes xd. However it'll be a good yield at those sort of prices and can't see it going much lower. Not sure there's much chance of £11.50 in next few years but personally I think that was market over-reaction to $ earnings which I think are largely balance sheet hedged.

I still see a correlation with gilts going fwd but the political risk has reset the dial, IMO. Still 2-3% share price growth and 5% div yield p.a would be ok, i'm long fwiw.

DYOR etc etc.

[bountyhunter] 09/11/2017 18:13

as discussed above it's unusual for NG. to diverge in direction from gilts to the current extent, so maybe a correction is due... (not that I pay too much attention to charts but occassionally they are of interest)

[utyinv] 09/11/2017 18:11

JFI :- Today's Telegraph take on National Grid:

National Grid is training the focus of its multi-billion pound investment effort on the US as political scrutiny in the UK mounts.

The FTSE 100 operator of Britain’s pipes and wires is pouring more than half of its spending into projects in the North East of the US where regulators are encouraging billions of dollars in low carbon investments.

National Grid invested £2bn in the last six months, of which 55pc was ploughed into the US market where profits are on the rise.

Meanwhile in the UK, the group faces increasing political scrutiny over its role at the heart of the energy industry. This has forced the company to defend itself against calls to replace National Grid with a Government-owned body.
The group’s boss John Pettigrew said he was “not surprised” by the recommendation within a recent report on energy costs.

“But we agree to disagree,” he told the Telegraph. “When we look at the benefits that have been driven through to customers since privatisation - well, our analysis doesn’t support that,” he said.
In the last ten years National Grid has invested £14bn in transmission infrastructure. And the cost of transmitting electricity via the power grid has fallen 30pc below pre-privatisation levels on a real basis.

Mr Pettigrew said National Grid's role balancing the power and gas grids on a second-by-second basis costs each customer account £24.50 and £9 respectively, or 3pc of the overall annual bill.

Overall the group’s profits fell short of expectations for the first half, causing its London-listed shares to slip over 3pc to 898.10p.

National Grid reported lower operating profits of £1.26bn compared to last year’s £1.47bn, which was around 3pc below the market expectations. The disappointing results were down to its UK electricity and gas transmission businesses, which fell short of analyst forecasts by 6pc and 13pc respectively.
In the US its earnings climbed by almost a fifth to £526m, helped by the stronger US dollar.

The sunnier US sentiment is likely to continue after regulators approved National Grid’s plans to spend $3bn over the next three years upgrading their infrastructure to embrace a wave of low-carbon technologies such as renewable energy and electric vehicles.

“One of the advantages of being a portfolio business is that we’re not reliant on the regulatory stance of a single jurisdiction,” said Mr Pettigrew.

British energy industry is under intense pressure as the Government cracks down on energy bills with a cap on standard tariffs. Ministers also called for an energy cost review, undertaken by well-regarded academic Dieter Helm, which suggested public bodies take greater control of energy networks.

“We’re hugely cognisant of the cost of energy debate,” said Mr Pettigrew. He added that the group would respond to a Government consultation on the report which opened earlier this week.

[bountyhunter] 09/11/2017 17:40

yes absolutely, or worse still knock a stock/downgrade to accumulate at as low a price as possible

~£9 seems to be the floor atm (famous last words ...I hope not!)

[utyinv] 09/11/2017 17:19

MJ19,

I am always sceptical what 'Fool.co.uk' write with many authors writing about the same Company but with totally different views.

There have been many occasions where reports written about a Stock has been released slating the Company recommending a sell-off and the shares subsequently rose and visa-versa articles written saying the Company in subject was fantastic and one to buy which had since crashed.

Opinions are just that opinions and its very easy to write a negative piece in hindsight when the stock has already crashed.

:)

[mj19] 09/11/2017 14:41

It's expensive guys at the momentWhy National Grid plc stock looks expensive to meFool.co.uk Ian PierceFool.co.uk9 November 2017national grid pylonsnational grid pylonsMoreHalf-year results for the six months to September released this morning have done nothing to stop the recent sell-off in shares of National Grid (LSE: NG) as their price is down nearly 3% at the time of writing. But before bargain-hunting investors pounce, I think the network transmitter's stock is still looking too expensive at 17.9 times trailing earnings and 15.6 times forward earnings given political pressures, weak forecasts for the sector and relatively low growth prospects.On the face of it, H1 results weren't too bad as adjusted operating profit excluding 'timing' rose 4% year-on-year to £1,368m. This growth was due largely to a strong performance from US assets as core UK electricity network profits fell substantially on reduced incentives payments and lower allowed base prices.However, actual adjusted operating profits came in at £1,259m, well below consensus analyst forecasts and a full 12% lower than the year before. Even more worrying from an investor perspective is the increasing regulatory pressure across the industry in the UK. Management spent quite a bit of its results statement defending its record since privatisation as rising energy prices have led to renewed calls for nationalisation from charities and politicians.Now, any nationalisation is still unlikely at this juncture but there is significant political pressure on regulators to rein in rising energy bills and this is already affecting National Grid's revenue allowances in electricity transmission. This pressure, together with relatively slim growth prospects at home, is why management devoted more than half of its capital investments in the period to growing its US business.Over the long term this plan makes considerable sense as the US division is growing, nicely profitable and facing fewer regulatory headwinds. However, group growth levels will likely remain subdued over the medium term given challenges at home, which makes me believe National Grid's shares are still priced too high for a very-regulated, low-growth business.

[utyinv] 09/11/2017 13:04

Bounty,

thanks for picking up my typo:)

Anyway, here's hoping you are right about the short term recovery.

What is disconcerting though is the fact that the shares haven't gone ex-divi yet so if it does recover, in two weeks time it most likely will fall again and it could follow a yoyo trend for a while.

[bountyhunter] 09/11/2017 12:48

UtyINV - yes I noticed the same thing earlier this morning, if the previous trend is followed that bodes well for a short term recovery by NG.!

...I guess today's results + political factors are probably causing the divergence with gilts (not 'guilts' btw ;-) right now but that may just be temporary

[mj19] 09/11/2017 12:45

Uty agree with all you say. I was left feeling deflated and sold my stake after the call. This share should get cheaper still