National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[utyinv] 09/11/2017 12:39

daneswooddynamo,

agreed as re-iterated in my previous post.

Bounty, there appears to be a divergence in the graph NG vs Gilts correlation?

Recently Grid has been falling whilst guilts are rising.

Just an observation. :(

[daneswooddynamo] 09/11/2017 12:12

their policy is to pay out an interim dividend at the rate of 35% of the total dividend for the previous financial year, hence 15.49p.

so if rpi is 3.9% for the year you can expect the final to be 30.5p plus

[utyinv] 09/11/2017 11:59

MJ19,

I agree!

What was interesting was the lack of interest and disappointment that was met by the Investors present.

They (investors) were definitely uninspired!

Did you see the face on the Deutsche Representative looked very uncomfortable asking questions and probably being in the presence of JP and AB when Deutsche have slated NG all year?

Interesting the int divi being 15.49p when last year it was 15.17p only a 2% increase.

However, the policy reiterated in the statement is that NG intend to increase dividends by at least RPI! Their take is RPI is on average 3% so I wonder what planet they have been living on as RPI is currently 3.9% and has been for a couple of months. I can't see that falling anytime soon.

Anyway, if they do follow RPI and accept its 3.9% then the final divi should be 30.51p

(15.17p +29.1p = 44.27p. Increase this by 3.9% : 44.27p x 1.039= 45.996p less interim of 15.49p = expected final divi of 30.506p).

[veryniceperson] 09/11/2017 11:33

In what way Mj19. I want to pick up some more. Not very inspiring?

[mj19] 09/11/2017 11:27

That confirm call wasn't very inspiring

[mj19] 09/11/2017 08:37

National Grid's adjusted profit before tax fell by 22% at actual exchange rates to £807m in the six months to 30 September. Excluding the impact of timing, adjusted profit before tax was up 1% to £916m. Operating and finance costs both increased over the year. Adjusted operating profit fell from £1.4bn to £1.3bn, but excluding the impact of timing it rose by 4% to £1.37bn.

[utyinv] 09/11/2017 08:19

veryniceperson,

Thanks.

Conference call / Web at 09:15hrs

Go to do the usual registering or signing in and join the web or listen in via telephone. Like to see how JP and AB perform in front of analysts.

[jimbox1] 09/11/2017 08:17

Boring is good here. Inflation linked assets and divi.

[wskill] 09/11/2017 08:11

Yes looks good to me will pick up a few more as I can see some safety in NM. with the decent Divi and US accounting for more of the business .

[mj19] 09/11/2017 08:09

Here we go...

[mj19] 09/11/2017 08:08

I liked the results and will hold...

[veryniceperson] 09/11/2017 08:06

Got the nice rise bit wrong. Never mind.

[veryniceperson] 09/11/2017 08:02

Thanks UtyINV Should see a nice rise today. I had a quick squint at results, sounded ok what I could understand. Leave the finner details to you UTYINV.

[mj19] 09/11/2017 07:58

National Grid announced 1H results: "Adjusted operating profit excluding timing increased £50M (or 4%) versus the prior period to £1,368M. (...) adjusted earnings attributable to equity shareholders were £654M, down £148M compared with the same period in 2016/17. Adjusted EPS were 18.5p, down 2.8p. (...) The Board has approved an interim dividend of 15.49p per ordinary share ($1.02 per American Depositary Share). (...)represents a 0.32p (2.1%) increase over the interim dividend for the year ended 31 March 2017 of 15.17p."

[utyinv] 09/11/2017 07:55

15.49p interim divi against 15.17p paid last time.

As mentioned there is strong inference to the second half which is normally a bellwether to how the overall performance is going. The company is investing more in infrastructure through capital investments both here and in the US.

Interconnectors are on schedule and the SO/TO split where the Elect System Operator will be a completely separate Company owned by NG but managed by its own Board by April 2019.

IMV if JC wanted to take control of the NG it could take the System Operator over easily without too much bother. To the uninitiated the NG is seen as the the System Operator they don’t fully understand the whole business etc ie Asset Mgt (TO), Interconnectors, US business etc etc. What appears on the TV is the System Operator Control room but this only accounts for approx £70-90m of the £2.5 billion profit NG makes per year.

The interim divi only accounts for a 2% increase on the last interim divi, but NG has said it will continue to improve the divi by RPI based on an average of 3% / year. So I expect a higher final divi will be in the pipeline.

That’s my précis of the situation. :)

[utyinv] 06/11/2017 18:12

m100,

Just one of the many changes taking place that should deliver greater economic efficiency.

Just before Steve Holliday retired he stated that based on fundamentals the NG share price should be £13 / share rather than the price at the time which was approx £10.50 / share.

Though logic and fundamentals don't always deliver a strong share price when political sentiment is negative.

I am not too concerned if NG do not deliver great results on Thursday (providing its not bad!), as the second half is the bellwether to see if NG's new strategy of delivering shareholder value is working.

[m100] 06/11/2017 16:02

National Grid culls balancing services

[bountyhunter] 05/11/2017 13:53

not directly NG related but worth a read...

[utyinv] 02/11/2017 17:54

I see Credit Suisse has stuck the boot in again with reiterating a TP of £8.60.

Suisse and Deutsche are extremely negative on NG and it would be nice if some good news hit the market next week putting the two brokers into panic mode.

[skinny] 02/11/2017 16:24

Up until this time last year, the trend line had held for 6 years or so - its currently well and truly broken.

It looks (to me) and others have voiced similar, that @£9 is fairly pivotal now and if that goes - then @£8.20ish? Just my view.

[utyinv] 02/11/2017 16:11

Skinny,

Does your graph indicate that the trend should, over time, follow the deep Red line?

Thanks.

[utyinv] 02/11/2017 12:55

That’s what I am used to seeing from old, an almost exponential share price rising curve. Too much to ask this trend continues upto £13 LOL! Don’t worry guys, not gone mad, it may have done so a couple of years ago but current economic climate a bit different.