National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[mj19] 11/9/2017 10:51

Thanks mani can't see us dropping at the moment.... holding strong

[mani2013] 10/9/2017 23:14

Hi MJ

The (weak) uptrend on the Daily Chart is supporting the price at the moment. 953-956 is currently good support. As with all trends, it is best to enter on the pullbacks. A price between 953-962 will be a good entry point AS LONG AS THE DAILY UPTREND REMAINS INTACT or gains momentum.

As mentioned in my post last week (post 5122) , there is also a chance that the current rally on the WEEKLY chart will become exhausted. This may be signaled by a new lower high on the weekly chart which could form by the end of the week. There is then the possibility of fresh selling pressure from the institutions (retails investors don't stand a chance when the big sell orders from the hedge funds start coming through) which could break the 953-956 support and cause the price to head lower as long positions start to exit the stock.

For this reason, you would need to use a stop loss. I am not sure what risk management tools you use, but I would place a stop loss at 949, with a view to safely exit the stock (to minimise any loss) if 953 is breached.

If the price breaks the 953-956 support, it is most likely going to head lower. It is then a case of observing the Daily chart and seeing how it plays out before considering a rentry.

I hope the above helps. The analysis is based on the current state of play of the markets, but as we all know, things can change quickly as a result of exogeneous events. Please do your own research before taking on any positions. You always take on risk when you enter the markets. It's a question of how you manage that risk. I wouldn't want you to lose any money you can't afford to lose. You may wish to consider entering the market with small orders initially and then adding to your position as (and IF) the uptrend continues to play out.

[mj19] 10/9/2017 18:10

Mani - at the mo personal investor for the future

[veryniceperson] 10/9/2017 17:54

utyINV That was a very good post. Had to say it.

[mani2013] 10/9/2017 17:05

MJ, What is your investment strategy ?Are you a 'Buy & Hold' retail investor or are you trader ? The reason I am asking is because this will dictate your investment timescales which in turn will dictate your entry point. An entry point for a position trader will be different to an entry point for a long term investor.

[utyinv] 10/9/2017 16:19

MJ19,

Deutsche have been negative on NG for ages. They had a sell rating on NG with target price of £9.5 when the price was £9.30. They then re-evaluated their statement saying their new target price was £9.

Politics (financial manipulation of markets) involved here!

Just bear in mind that empirical data shows that over years of investing in Utilities, Companies like NG have increased in share price after the interims and the run up to finals in May.

Last year's interims in Nov were a disappointment due to debt reorganisation and debt provision ie $ vs £ and debt write off for part of the Distn sale. I don't expect the interims this year will be taken as negative as last Nov.

What will be interesting is the lead up to finals next May when focus will concentrate on NG's decision to sell a costly Distn system and concentrate on more investor friendly businesses that operate on a level playing field.

Minimising overhead costs(reduced stake to 39%)in a costly utility business - UK Gas Distn - that is heavily regulated and whose income is depressed by a regulator may deliver shareholder benefits in the medium term.

Obviously, there are too many uncertainties that effect the whole market. Currently in the US the financial media have picked up on reports that the Conservatives' Brexit deal (or lack of deal) may leave the door open to Corbyn who is perceived as the biggest threat to the economy. They have heavily criticised Labour's stance in opposing the repeal Bill even though they say Labour supports Brexit...ie, Labour Marxists are willing to destroy the economy in order to get a chance of taking power. Which then leaves open the imagination to where they would lead us if they did gain power.

Many analysts in both the US and Canada are supporting the idea of holding some cash in the short term to take advantage of any market correction over the coming months.

All IMO only, but as said, if Corbyn can be put back in his box, progress on Brexit is delivered and NG's strategy to concentrate on more lucrative parts of the business, we may see real benefits.

My view on Brexit is that although I voted to remain, I respect the decision of the referendum. I would like all the political Parties to get behind the deal to put the UK people and UK economy first and before their own ambitions.
All parties should proactively work together to deliver a strong decisive deal that puts Britain first.

[ugandalad] 10/9/2017 14:59

On the other hand Stockopedia quotes 19 brokers covering share 5 sells 2 being strong 7 holds and 7 buys 3 of which strong. Almost toss a coin territory.

[mj19] 10/9/2017 14:32

Deutsche Bank AG Reiterates "Sell" Rating for National Grid plc (NG)Posted by Rob Logan on Sep 6th, 2017 // No CommentsNational Grid plc logoNational Grid plc (LON:NG)'s stock had its "sell" rating restated by equities research analysts at Deutsche Bank AG in a research note issued to investors on Wednesday. They currently have a GBX 900 ($11.62) price objective on the stock. Deutsche Bank AG's price objective would suggest a potential downside of 7.19% from the company's current price.

[mj19] 10/9/2017 12:25

Mani hiI need your help I have 44k to invest here, I need to know a good entry price. I missed 930 a couple of months back. Please give your thoughts on when to buy in. Also letMe know if you think this better than gsk. Thanks M

[mani2013] 08/9/2017 23:14

No worries, MJ :)With the momentum of the move on thursday's 5 min chart, there was potential for the price to break out past 981.7 before close. It came within a whisker of the price closing at 981.5 and opening again on Friday at 981.3 before pulling away decisively to the downside from 981.7. Next week remain crucial !

[septimus quaid] 08/9/2017 16:05

Are the US hurricanes affecting sentiment?

Seems a double edged sword, as they are also impacting the dollar.

[mj19] 08/9/2017 15:31

Mani thanks

[trader2] 07/9/2017 08:32

doji yesterday on reasonable volume

[mani2013] 06/9/2017 16:58

NG. Technical Analysis.

First time poster on this forum, but active intraday trader of National Grid using Real Time data feeds and technical analysis.

I am long on the stock (nice dividends :), but I short CFDs to hedge my long term position as an when required.

Beware the (so far) weak up trend on the Daily, which is effectively a pullback after the big fall drop from back in June 2017.

As long as the uptrend on the Daily continues, we are OK, but the next 10 days are very crucial for the stock.

IF the price stays below the recent interim high of 981.7 over the next 10 days, a new lower high will have formed on the Weekly chart potentially marking the end of the pullback and triggering fresh selling pressure on the stock from the institutional traders and investors, driving the price down to retest the 921.2 low.

These are my own views based on my own technical analysis method which has proved reliable time and time again. But please do your own research before taking on any new positions.

[bountyhunter] 03/9/2017 16:02

Hi prewar, I'm the thread header author and the only rule is to keep things polite even when in disagreement. Sometimes things can be a little ambiguous or said tongue in cheek which can lead to offence when none is intended which I hope was the case here.
UtyINV is one of the most informed posters on NG whose posts I always find worth reading whatever one's views.

[prewar] 02/9/2017 18:55

Thanks Uty for your reply. I feel however I must pull you up on a few points.

Apologies if you think I have been in some way derogatory, inflammatory or impolite in my post. I tried to keep my post factual, could you point me in the right direction of where my post has been any or all of those items. I struggled to also find the 'rules' for posting on this thread, admittedly I didn't wade through all 5,000 odd posts but I didn't spot it either in the header or post #1. This way I can comply in the future. I wonder if the rules could be amended to also include posts should be factually accurate or suitably caveated whilst we're in clarification mode?

I posted my alternative view so that anybody reading your post had a different perspective so that if they chose to do so could make a more informed decision on whether to follow your theory that 'markets tend to go down in advance of a long weekend in the US'.

You post with great authority that at times I worry that other readers of this BB would be in some sort of trance hanging on your every word (possibly like Derren Brown uses as part of his stage show). There didn't seem to be any suggestion that this was your view only, I also couldn't see any reference to any supporting statistical analysis that proves or supports your theory.

[prewar] 01/9/2017 20:29

As for the rise that was short lived. Labour day weekend in US so hedgies always try and depress the markets before a long week-end. Been a psychological practice for many years, ie many Professionals who have investments in stocks and shares will have a long week-end to ponder whether to sell or hold. It's just a way of getting shares off many PIs into the hands of the Hedgies as well as the Institutions profit taking so they can spend the long week-end at Marthas's Vineyard

Seems as though they didn't manage to depress the main indices today just a few shares. I'm yet to be convinced of your theory uty, needs a bit more work before I pile in behind your detailed technical analysis!

[arf dysg] 01/9/2017 16:58

Once a chubby dictator named Kim
Tried to tone himself up in the gym.
Though he thought he was chic,
His unwholesome physique
Was apparent to all except him.

[utyinv] 01/9/2017 15:55

Sept,

Has he left the Company? From what I know DW one of the schemes supporters is still there.

As for the rise that was short lived. Labour day weekend in US so hedgies always try and depress the markets before a long week-end. Been a psychological practice for many years, ie many Professionals who have investments in stocks and shares will have a long week-end to ponder whether to sell or hold. It's just a way of getting shares off many PIs into the hands of the Hedgies as well as the Institutions profit taking so they can spend the long week-end at Marthas's Vineyard 😀

[septimus quaid] 01/9/2017 11:05

Nice little rise today, slowly shaking off my capital losses (which have, until recently, more or less equalled my special dividend gain).

Article in yesterday's Times (hard copy) about Ofgem refusing to allow NG the additional cost of their fancy T-pylon for the Hinckley connection.

I always thought the T-pylon design was nothing more than a silly vanity project on behalf of one of the directors.

Now looking expensive to install* and will involve non-standard maintenance.

I think that foolish individual has now left the company.

*plus the back office costs of the "beauty competition" and test line.

[arf dysg] 01/9/2017 10:14

UtyINV, not necessarily only your opinion. I have a hunch that plenty of others share your view. :)


A thought occurs to me: isn't Fatboy (aka Mr. Bad Hair Day) a committed communist? Playing the markets should be the one thing he WON'T do. On the other hand, there's nothing to stop him being an absolute total complete and utter raving hypocrite. :)

[utyinv] 29/8/2017 15:56

Bit different to last week.

Makes me wonder if the NK leader is playing the markets? Buy stock when low then sell, then launch a missile and watch the markets fall. Buy back and repeat the process.

Time someone stopped this manipulation to destroy western markets and take the little sh.t out! IMO only!

[utyinv] 22/8/2017 01:13

Bit of a rise on Tues morning with performance in the US. Hopefully!