National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[mornington crescent] 08/8/2015 16:30

The main thing that labour should do now is to organise to win back their scottish seats

If they cant make inroads there then they are probably doomed

and if the Tories succed in levelling the size of constituencies as well,they will be just a distant memory

[atlantic57] 07/8/2015 14:49

Very Good to have some polite discussion on a bb most welcome.

[gbb483] 07/8/2015 14:28

The only time Labour did well was when they had Tory policies under Blair. If they elect a left wing leader they can wave goodbye to being in power.

[bountyhunter] 07/8/2015 14:09

I agree with your view Pierre, which is one reason why I'm hanging on to my investment here given the yield and subdued political risk. The pain caused to mortgage holders would be too great for the BOE to raise interest rates by more than a small amount very gradually over the next few years, although if inflation returns to more than around 2% things could get tricky.

[pierre oreilly] 07/8/2015 13:49

Well the boe sets the base rate (being linked to the rate for wholesale money), so interest rates certainly follow, by market forces, the controlled base rate. Basically, if the base rate rises 0.5%, I think many bond rates would rise by 0.5% (i.e. atm, 5 yr high st bonds would pay 3% instead of 2.5% all other things being equal). At least that's what I'd expect to happen since it's happened every time base rates have changed in my experience. It's not always exact, not for all accounts and not instant, but surely that's the general situation isn't it?

[atlantic57] 07/8/2015 13:36

Central bankers cannot set interest rates.Market forces will determine what level
they should be.Granted they have been able to keep rates low for 6 years.

[pierre oreilly] 07/8/2015 12:32

IMV, interest rates simply can't rise much over the coming 5 or 10 years. A 0.5% rise on a 3% mortgage is the stuff of mass mortgage default.

I quite like the approach the boe have to signalling rate rises - they are signalled about 6 months in advance and when they come, I'dexpect them to be 0.125%, not the usual 0.25%. And that will be it for a year to get absorbed into the economy and housing market before the next tiny rise. btw i know nothing about economics, but it seems like the boe really has little or no choice. I'm taking 3% 5 year bonds against most advice.

[getscenic] 07/8/2015 12:08

Same old Labour, Grand ideas but can't do the sums. Lets hope he makes Leader as that will make them unelectable for sure.

[bountyhunter] 07/8/2015 11:55

not quite sure where he would get the money from - further borrowing to increase the National debt I presume! :-(

[newbank] 07/8/2015 11:03

Let's hope he never gets into power:-

The Guardian: Labour would start buying up shares in the "big six" energy companies under a Jeremy Corbyn government until it owned a controlling stake, the party's leftwing leadership contender has said. Corbyn, whose support has surged during the campaign and is now narrowly the second favourite to win, wants to nationalise British Gas, SSE (LSE: SSE.L - news) , Eon (Taiwan OTC: 3411.TWO - news) , RWE Npower, Scottish Power and EDF (Paris: FR0010242511 - news) , as well as the National Grid (LSE: NG.L - news) .

[bountyhunter] 07/8/2015 09:27

good news yesterday for NG. on the delay in any interest rate rises?

...also even when they do start rising the talk is of very modest rises over a long period of time; seemingly having a BOE interest rate of 0.5% over the last 70 mths (or was that 77) has meant that rising the rate too soon and by much at all would cause too much damage so is unlikely to happen

[neddo] 06/8/2015 13:21

that is a little better, up to now?

[mj19] 03/8/2015 18:00

Where is this heading , no going up

[pierre oreilly] 22/7/2015 23:51

Thanks for clarifying GJ2.

They shipped me around all over the place, one of the most notable was Park St where my office overlooked the complete construction of the Globe Theatre (not the original!).

[gj2] 22/7/2015 18:55

PO :

Ref post 3594 : I've not got direct experience of the connection/charging conditions, but having direct operational experience of over a decade as an employee (I don't want to be more specific), I think your post sums up the situation well.

My only minor observations would be :
- "The costs of connection - and everything else - just comes from an uplift in the traded elctricity which the regulator ensures provides a decent return to ngc.". - Exactly, but I would point out that the generator specific costs (e.g. a brand new substation just to connect that generator, if required) would be paid for just by that generator, albeit over the nominal lifetime of that asset i.e. NG pays up front, with a cashflow/debt impact.

- "A man on a bike won't meet the criteria" - I think the real decider is that they would never need to connect to the HV grid (since,as you allude to, the local DNO network would suffice) but also that the eventual cost to them directly would rule it out.

When all is said and done, the renewables/new interconnector issues really came to a head in 2010 when the increased infrastucture expenditure involved led to the unexpected rights issue. However, with the guaranteed return to NG on that expenditure, there was little problem getting this away. It simply didn't matter if windfarm X didn't generate very much overall/at peak demand times etc - that's their lookout - so long as they are solvent, NG get paid just the same. However, as per previous posts, the increased variability of renewables has certainly made NG's real time balancing job harder.

Have enjoyed the thread in general.

Regards

GJ2

[pierre oreilly] 22/7/2015 17:34

qué? Not sure if that's a ref to my posts - i didn't realise i was in a battle if so! Tbh, I still have trouble understanding your point, and especially now trouble understanding the white flag! I was just chatting aimlessly in the hope of getting clarity on grid connection criteria from someone who knew.

[redartbmud] 22/7/2015 15:27

God love a duck.

I am standing in my living room, waving the white flag of surrender.

[pierre oreilly] 22/7/2015 15:11

red, still not sure of your point. NGC doesn't pick and choose who or what it connects to the grid. If certain criteria are met, then ngc has an obligation to connect. An obligation means it has no choice. The costs of connection - and everything else - just comes from an uplift in the traded elctricity which the regulator ensures provides a decent return to ngc. A man on a bike won't meet the criteria, nor will roof solar panels (which connect to the local grid, not ngc's.). (I'm a little away from my personal grid expertise here, but I'm pretty sure that's correct and the best of my knowledge but would nevertheless appreciate confirmation/correction from someone with direct experience).

It's a business, yes. It's not a conventional business though, far from it. It really doesn't have much decision making ability at all. (btw I'm only talking about the england and wales electricity bit, no idea about us regulation or gas).

[m100] 22/7/2015 14:58

"Its bleeding obvious init. There is an overhead incurred when bringing a new generator into the grid. Not only the cabling, but all those fancy screens the have in the control rooms. You're not going to change all that for a 2p start-up with a dynamo connected to an exercise bike."

No you are not, hence the very significant connection charges imposed by NG to deter the dynamo on an exercise bike scam :) There are some simplified worked examples towards the end of this document.



There is no requirement for anyone to ever generate on a connection they have paid NG to provide other than initial proving / commissioning runs. NG cannot refuse a connection on grounds of either viability or availability of the generation connected to it, but they can impose operational restrictions and a rapid disconnection regime to preserve system stabilty.

Anything not transiting the metering at the generator or the grid supply point where it exits to the circuits owned by the distribution network operator is not seen by NG. Embedded generation of all types including domestic solar just depresses overall demand seen at the grid supply points. Go back a few years and there would be a pronounced double hump on the weekday demand curve, one at around 12-1pm, another at 5-6pm. Now with solar, at least in summer, the curve is a lot flatter and sometimes even dips around the solar noon.

[redartbmud] 22/7/2015 14:52

PO

Perhaps not a good example then, but neither is peddaling away in gyms.
BTW I have a few rfiends who are doing very well out of the scheme.

What I am trying to say, and for the last time.

NG does not just connect any supply directly to the system. Any decision to do so is based on the ability to meet an agreed criteria that is by no means frivolous. Make no mistake it isn't cheap to do and Grid is a business that is overseen by the regulator.

I did have a conversation on the subject with the Chairman of Grid, and he was quite clear in his comments to me. FWIW.

Can we now park it, as we have wasted enough time on the matter.

red

[pierre oreilly] 22/7/2015 14:12

Not sure of your point red. Individual home solar power never reaches ngc's grid. They also don't sell any power at all, they receive a subsidy for each kWh generated (the original fit for generation) now being 49/kWh) together with a subsidy for deemed export (being deemed at half that generated, at 3.4p/kWh originally).

Basically, electricty consumers (together with an element of taxpayer's cash) pay up to 50p/kWh for solar generation and approximately a quid/kWh for the amount likely to be supplied to the local grid. Compared to about 4 or 5p/kWh paid to other generators.

Even worse, such solar panels don't supply anything at all when it's needed the most and when it is the most valuable.

[redartbmud] 22/7/2015 13:37

Not so easy guys.

Some capacity enters the Grid indirectly. All of the people with solar panels are sold the idea that they can sell back electricity that they are not using.
They are not connected directly to the Grid.
A little perspective is required.

[gbb483] 22/7/2015 11:40

a dynamo connected to an exercise bike.

Now there's an idea for an entrepreneur - how many gyms are there around the country wasting energy by generating heat in the friction pads of those bikes? Add that to some pressure pads under all those zumba dance floors, and they reckon there's enough energy expended every night to drive the QEII across the Atlantic - all going to waste heating up the planet.