National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[pierre oreilly] 22/7/2015 11:27

While the grid has certain legal requirements to supply electricity within certain voltage and very tight frequency limits, it is in the odd situation of having virtually no control anymore of the resources available to enable them to do that, which today are mainly political decisions over various generating technologies (which themselves are often dictated by political subsidies and operational procedures).

Perhaps m100 could clarify the following. afaiia, the grid has an obligation to connect certain generation nodes if they meet the (technical) grid code. It matters not to ng one iota whether they think such a connection is sensible and/or cost effective, or even whether there is a net benefit by doing so. So ngc don't have to feel comfortable at all, in fact I'd say they have felt increasingly uncomfortable for the last 20 years!.

[gbb483] 22/7/2015 11:21

Not sure where the cost effective nor indeed the minimum capacity guarantees comes into the argument.

Its bleeding obvious init. There is an overhead incurred when bringing a new generator into the grid. Not only the cabling, but all those fancy screens the have in the control rooms. You're not going to change all that for a 2p start-up with a dynamo connected to an exercise bike.

[redartbmud] 22/7/2015 11:01

m100

Thanks for the link to the grid technicals document.

What I was trying to say, somewhat simplistically, is that there is a clearly laid down criteria for connection.
Grid needs to deliver a supply that meets the needs of the customers. If they were not comfortable they would not proceed with a direct link into the system.

[m100] 22/7/2015 10:28

"They only connect a new source of power to the grid if it meets specified criteria on reliability of source and minimum capacity guarantees. ie. it needs to be big enough and reliablem enough to make it cost effective for Grid"

Not sure where the cost effective nor indeed the minimum capacity guarantees comes into the argument. I am assuming by capacity guarantees you mean actual deliverable energy in MWh at the point of connection and not just nameplate figures in MW of the plant connected.

All that is required is compliance with the Grid Code.

[pierre oreilly] 22/7/2015 09:56

I'm not into eating meat, but I do like a good 20oz t bone evey day.I wouldn't worry about ng. Salty, I think it will still survive even if you do 'trim your holding'.Do you have any views on the business strategy on ng. or are you just guided by charts which you don't follow?

[saltaire111] 22/7/2015 09:44

Not into charts but I can't ignore the fact that this share has broken through 5yr resistance and it doesn't look good. The healthy divi provides support but this is still breaking to the downside even with that.

I'm worried about ng. Might trim my holding here...

Salty

[saltaire111] 22/7/2015 09:44

Not into charts but I can't ignore the fact that this share has broken through 5yr resistance and it doesn't look good. The healthy divi provides support but this is still breaking to the downside even with that.

I'm worried about ng. Might trim my holding here...

Salty

[redartbmud] 21/7/2015 21:22

tonio

Understand where you are coming from, but as you are aware Energy Policy is down to the short term vagaries of the politicians.

Millipede's outburst, not so long ago, destroyed value in Centrica in particular and other energy suppliers in general. It ensured that capex was cut back within the industry, with projects deferred or cancelled. Nobody will invest for 40 years if there is no clarity in regulation and no guaranree of recovering the costs.

[tonio] 21/7/2015 21:06

Thankyou for that encouraging response redartbmud. It's just a bit worrying that, with NG input, it seems the total energy usage requirements will only be exceeded by 1.2% this winter.

[redartbmud] 21/7/2015 19:53

It is not NG's responsibility to determine the source of energy supply ie. hydrocarbons, nuclear, wind, hydro etc. Their job is to connect those supplies and move it to wherever it is required.

They do have an input into the estimation of total energy useage requirements, along with other agencies.

tonio

They only connect a new source of power to the grid if it meets specified criteria on reliability of source and minimum capacity guarantees. ie. it needs to be big enough and reliablem enough to make it cost effective for Grid.

[tonio] 21/7/2015 15:32

Well, as a NG shareholder, I hope somebody is advocating the No Progression scenario. IMHO the rest are just based on belief in untested models, not science but disregarding that we are taking quite a gamble relying in a major way on a variable wind source. A mix of gas (including fracking), nuclear and coal seems the reliable and sensible way forward - our industrial base needs to have secure energy supplies to provide exports to pay off our enormous debts.
I doubt those strong dollar earnings are going to be enough to offset the cost of / low ongoing income from infrastructure to unreliable energy sources. Talk about follies, incroyable mais vrai.

[4spiel] 20/7/2015 15:03

National Grid has strong dollar earnings it's not just a UK utility.

[m100] 16/7/2015 13:00

"incentives have to change radically and quickly from intermittent investment to dispatchable capacity investment (on a grid scale)"

Fully agree, but in the short term it's the 1990's all over again and yet another bunch of gas fired generators rather than the only long term low CO2 solution which is nuclear with gas or maybe Norwegian hydro/ Icelandic geothermal for peak lopping.

Unfortunately NG saying anything about energy sources has the renewables lobby salivating that NG fully endorses renewables, and maybe at their most extreme level of penetration and they are solid, unmoveable, unchangeable targets



In Future Energy Scenarios NG envisages four possible scenarios, not one, No Progression, Slow Progression, Low Carbon Life and Gone Green.

FES 2105 pdf



Meeting the 'gone green' target and putting security of supply at extreme risk is one the renewables lobby appear to want regardless of any external cost. Significant levels of investment (such as the Western HVDC link) are being made by NG to shift what may often be be tiny levels of renewables from Scotland, I suppose it might be better financially than the unsustainable level of constraint payments claimed by the wind turbine operators. But will these under utiliised assets be detrimental to NG in the future?

[pierre oreilly] 16/7/2015 09:06

But ngc have been proactively reducing the risk of blackout by such demand management for decades. It's nothing new. Only the scale is new.

The thing is, all these possible precautions have limits (and high costs). The fundamental problem is the lack of dispatchable capacity together with the increasing penetration of intermittent generation (which requires resource diversion from dispatchable capacity for increasing frequency support due to that intermittency), and that fundamental problem still seems to be getting worse, (but at a slower rate than before the last election).

Imv, incentives have to change radically and quickly from intermittent investment to dispatchable capacity investment (on a grid scale). And that will simply limit the electicity rationing over the coming decade and not eliminate it.

It's such a travesty that this situation was completely avoidable, and that now, the considerable expertise of ngc is spent trying to solve the consequencies of insufficient dispatchble capacity instead of simply supplying electricity as and when it's needed.

[harvester] 16/7/2015 07:53

NG on TV news last night . Report that NG proactively preparing to reduce the risk of blackout in coming years by signing up big companies like UU. for agreements to have their supply switched during grid stress periods in return for tariff reduction . Highlighted risk of winter blackouts in next few years due to some reductions in generating capacity and increasing consumption .

[pierre oreilly] 15/7/2015 21:24

How astute of Alexander Temerko to notice there's a dispatchable capacity shortage, all due to national grid of course. Their engineers must have been asleep on the job for the shortfall to have crept in without them noticing. Split ngc up (how exactly? and why?) - that should solve all the ngc induced problems!

Well if I were Cameron, I'd tell the tory donor where to stuff his cash, surely the tories don't want to be associated with such an ignorant, arrogant madman do they. How can someone so ignorant, so wrong, so unaware of the facts get published? Doesn't the Guardian even do cursory checking, or does publishing insane makebelieve help the guardian divert attention from their part in pushing the green agenda which ia the sole responsibiltiy for bringing our electricity supply to near death?

[adelwire2] 15/7/2015 17:09

£9 tip sounds gd to me

[speedsgh] 15/7/2015 13:00

National Grid has nothing to fear from Ofgem review -

Ofgem will conduct a mid-tem review of its new price control regulation but is not expected to renegotiate the financial aspects of the rules, which is good news for National Grid (NG).

Jefferies analyst Peter Atherton retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of 900p on the shares, which a penny lower to 850.1p yesterday.

‘Ofgem has released the timetable for the mid-term review of [price control rules] and confirmed that such a review would not impact the financial aspects of the eight-year price control,’ he said.

‘In our recent initiation we highlighted five risks surrounding National Grid, one of which was the mid-term review. We noted that there was a risk, albeit a small one, that Ofgem would use this review to reopen the financial elements of National Grid’s price control, following two years of significant outperformance.

‘Ofgem’s announcement appears to rule out such a reopening, with a review focusing solely on changes to outputs resulting from policy changes. While this may be challenged by other industry participants, it is encouraging that Ofgem is planning to abide by its promise not to reopen the financial aspects of the price control.’

[badtime] 15/7/2015 11:25

Anyone hold the index linked bonds?

[tonio] 15/7/2015 10:19

Well stap me vitals, who knew? What we need are a few more closures and new huge wind farms pronto - then we can get that excess from +1.2% to -10%!

[redartbmud] 15/7/2015 08:20

Oh yes. I have been waiting for that statement for months.
Politicians need to get a grip on long term energy policy, and soon.
They are 20 years behind the curve.

[skinny] 09/7/2015 07:26

Jefferies International Buy 839.40 839.60 - 900.00 Initiates/Starts