National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[rcturner2] 16/8/2013 08:14

I think it may test 700p

[defcon3] 16/8/2013 08:04

Looking for an entry guys. Is this a decent level or do you expect a further retrace?

[arja] 14/8/2013 14:19

really on the skids and not even a bounce at any stage . Kept half my holding to my regret but I guess it will turn eventually !

[skinny] 08/8/2013 10:54

RBC Capital Markets Outperform 775.00 771.50 900.00 900.00 Reiterates

[skinny] 07/8/2013 07:32

Citigroup Neutral 777.75 820.00 820.00 Retains

HSBC Overweight 777.75 875.00 885.00 Reiterates

JP Morgan Cazenove Neutral 777.75 735.00 - Reiterates

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Buy 777.75 800.00 800.00 Reiterates

Morgan Stanley Overweight 777.75 880.00 880.00 Reiterates

[phillis] 31/7/2013 10:51

thank goodness for pathetic AGMs

Lets have more of them if this is the share price reaction

[redartbmud] 29/7/2013 16:19

AGM was pathetic at best.
Chairman wants to cut the cost, which was £187k for externals. I suggest that they cut the number of Capita employees, most of whom did nothing - they stayed in a hotel last night I believe. For a 2.00pm meeting!!

They should cut the non-execs as well. Bees round a honey pot.

The man (chair) had an arrogance that made my blood boil.

red

[m100] 29/7/2013 13:57

1445 Question on 'occupational safety' with regards to the 'fact' that '10% of men are rapists'

[redartbmud] 29/7/2013 09:57

Uty

I grilled the FD about the debt at last year's AGM. He said that the market was happy to lend the cash at very competitive rates, and did not see this altering.
They have a £20 billions investment programme, which commenced in 2012/13, of which they have spent some £3+bn in the year. There appears to be an incentive to borrow in the financial model, as the greater the borrowing, the more they can recover through the regulated business.
My worry would be the limiting of profit through the regulatory framework for political reasons. I am not sure how they would square up to inflation, but at present it doesn't appear to be on the horizon.
there would appear to be only one way for interest rates to go, and that is up.

I shudder to contemplate "flat"Ed Balls and Milliband in government.

Dividend cover is thin at 1.4x adjusted earnings.

red

[skinny] 29/7/2013 09:22

Utd, from their website -

[utyinv] 29/7/2013 09:15

Red,

Yes I know what they have said and I believe that they can continue to deliver.

However, there are too many rumours going around that Utilities are funding Dividends through increased debt. These rumours may be partly down to MM's trying to give reason to 'Short' and or not knowing the dynamics of how secure Utilities income is, thus debt can be seen as a different risk than it is to other Companies. Some knowledgeable people still fail to realise that NG's spend can be recouped from customers subject to constraints detailed in RIIO.

At the AGM, It only takes for one Analyst to ask the question in order for Steve Holliday to rebuke the question as being without foundation.

By the way, I am unable to attend the AGM does anyone know if there is a Podcast and if so what time?

[spacecake] 29/7/2013 08:54

Solid update, as for the divi.. is that not what they said originally ? in line with RPI, for as long as you can see into the future (Months, years maybe, not decades ??

[redartbmud] 29/7/2013 07:43

Newbank

FINANCIAL UPDATE



There have been no material changes to the financial position of the Company during the period. National Grid has a strong balance sheet, underpinned by regulatory revenues, which is key to its ability to secure the required long-term funding for both the UK and the US businesses. Interest cover, gearing and other financial metrics remain within comfortable ranges to sustain the Group'sstrong credit ratings in the medium term and support the policy of growing the dividend at least in line with RPI inflation for the foreseeable future.

Does that answer the question?

red

[skinny] 29/7/2013 06:20

Morgan Stanley Overweight 760.50 760.50 880.00 880.00 Reiterates

[skinny] 29/7/2013 06:02

HIGHLIGHTS

· Solid operational and financial performance during the period
· UK: Good progress developing UK business to deliver outperformance under RIIO
· US: Positive start to the year with all outstanding rate plan settlements now approved

[newbank] 28/7/2013 12:35

AGM Monday, may get some insight into whether the Divi policy is robust, as I expect some 'City Analyst' would want some questions answered.

[pierre oreilly] 22/7/2013 09:58

redartbmud 22 Jul'13 - 08:52 - 2766 of 2766 0 0

Pierre

Can I please have your rose tinted glasses when you have finished with them?

red

Well Red, with that stunning intellectual and informed reply, I think I'll reassess all my opinions on our electricity industry to align them with yours. Thanks.

[redartbmud] 22/7/2013 07:52

Pierre

Can I please have your rose tinted glasses when you have finished with them?

red

[darias] 22/7/2013 07:47

P o'R

Good post. :-)

[pierre oreilly] 21/7/2013 23:59

redartbmud 21 Jul'13 - 20:24 - 2762 of 2762 0 0

Pierre

I trust that your blood pressure is now back to normal.

Qué?

I was referring to the fact that, before privatisation, the government could/should have spent more on infrastructure up-grade/renewal.

Are you sure that's a fact?

So you're talking about pre-1990?, say 24 years ago? Even then, there was no shortage of investment in either people or infrastructure. Dinorwig was built pre-privatisation, and that at the time was the most costly civil engineering project in the World. Plenty of expensive Nuclear stations were built during CEGB's time, along with the grid infrastructure to handle them. In those days, the government were guided by senior grid engineers and investment was targeted on engineering principles (unlike today). Sheesh, how else do you think we had the most reliable electricity supply in the World with our expertise being sold to many other countries? Judging by the fact that today the grid is soon to rely on a large investment in tiny diesel generators, with thousands planned, I doubt anyone is interested in our ESI technology today.

[esmerelda] 21/7/2013 23:37

I have a lot of sympathy for what you say Darius. IMHO buying back shares is always poor use of shareholders money. Whilst it potentially increases EPS that does not necessarily mean a higher share price. Also buying back at high prices (IIRC the share was trading at the top of its range when they did so) is a bit of a risk if the market turns. FWIW I would have paid down the most expensive long term debt with that money but I suspect senior management might have been incentivised on EPS or share price and not net debt!

However I think you have to bear in mind that for NG if debt becomes too low then you become a takeover target for those willing to use the company's own money/debt rating as part of their own financial muscle, eg Manchester United. Perhaps that might be good for shareholders but not necessarily management. I doubt that is something you need to worry about if you own a controlling stake in your company.

I do think there is a reasonable question to ask as to why they were buying back shares only to have a Right's issue a year or two later. That is not good financial planning IMHO.

[riskybiznizz] 21/7/2013 19:37

Be VERY quick. Battered share price expected to rebound hard throughout next week...

19 July 2013
FRONTIER MINING LTD
(�Frontier5533; or �the Company�)
Publication of Expert Independent Report
Frontier Mining (AIM:FML), the AIM listed exploration, development and production company focused on Kazakhstan, announces the publication of an Independent Expert Report, by Wardell Armstrong International, entitled �Review and Preliminary Valuation of Baitimir Project Located within the Naimanjal License Territory NE Kazakhstan, dated 16 July 2013.�
Wardell Armstrong International (WAI) is an independent engineering and environmental Consultancy, which has provided the mineral industry with specialised geological, mining, and processing expertise since 1987. WAI was commissioned by Frontier to prepare a scoping report to include a preliminary financial evaluation, based on data provided by Frontier up to 25 December 2012, of the Baitimir project. The project is located within the Naimanjal license, and is comprised of the Baitimir, Yubileiny and Beschoku copper deposits.
This report documents the geological block preliminary modelling and mineral resource as at October 2012, and is a non JORC (2004) compliant desktop report.
The results of the financial modelling show that, when applying various discount rates between 8% and 20% the model produces Post Tax Net Present Values of US$17 million and US$67 million respectively based on income from the recovery of copper, silver, gold, magnetite and molybdenum. The internal rate of return (IRR) for the Baitemir and Beschoku projects are approximately 40% with a payback period outlined in the report of 2.73 years. Wardell Armstrong estimates that the cash operating costs over the life of mine are approximately US$10.01 per ton of oxide ore processed and US$19.79 per ton of sulphide ore.
DCF Model Results (Before Funding and Debt Service):
NPV@ Discount Rate
8%
USD$m
67
NPV(Base Case) @ Discount Rate
10%
USD$m
53
NPV @ Discount Rate
15%
USD$m
30
NPV@ Discount Rate
20%
USD$m
17
IRR
%
40%
The review and preliminary valuation support Frontier Mining�s view that Baitimir is an attractive project with robust economics. Frontier will keep all options open as to the optimal development strategy for the Baitimir whether that be from its own resources, through joint venture or through the sale of the project to a third party.
A full copy of the report can be found on Frontier�s website: www.frontiermining.com
Frontier Mining Ltd
Yerlan Minavar
[phone]
Libertas Capital (NOMAD)
Sandy Jamieson
[phone]
RFC Ambrian (Broker)
John Harrison
Richard Morrison
[phone]
Walbrook PR
Walbrook IR
Lianne Cawthorne (Media Enquiries)
Paul Cornelius (Investor Enquiries)
+44