Mpac Share Discussion Threads

[fuji99] 23/8/2023 12:18

Shaker: I agree with you because a few are mistakenly saying "All problems are factored in the markets". I don't agree as the DOW/S&P/Nasdaq are at all time high in a faltering Chinese economy. If China stagnates where consumption will come from ?
If the likes of BHP, the bellwether of world economic activity is flagging difficulties, there is no need to understand more or listen to any "analysts" or other charlatans.
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"BHP Annual Profit Falls by 58% on Weaker Commodity Prices

Mining giant BHP said its annual profit fell by more than half compared with a year earlier, reflecting a pullback in commodity prices that has squeezed profits across the industry as China's economy stumbles and big markets like the U.S. grapple with sharply higher interest rates.

BHP, the world's biggest miner by market value, reported a net profit of $12.92 billion for the 12 months through June. That is down from a profit of $30.90 billion a year earlier when it had benefited from the sale of its oil-and-gas business and when commodity prices were at or near record highs. BHP said it also continued to grapple with cost inflation, especially in labor, diesel and electricity prices."
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[disc0dave45] 22/8/2023 17:29

Their last update to end June they said they had positive net cash on the balance sheet.

[shaker45] 18/8/2023 06:50

The investment climate globally leaves so many on the sidelines until they perceive markets have bottomed out. Given the dire Chinese economic news emerging, that will take a while. Meantime cash is king. Good time to watch and wait. Even mpac.

[backmarker] 18/8/2023 06:29

Hi folks.MPAC has been on my radar for a few months now though I haven't invested yet.One concern I have is the level of debt. Any views ?Clearly news flow isn't high, which probably explains why this board is fairly quiet.The presentation and Q&A in early Sept might provide a catalyst.

[disc0dave45] 09/8/2023 20:17

One of many!

[castleford tiger] 08/8/2023 17:57

red day today !

[disc0dave45] 21/7/2023 19:38

Blue day post Tiger :)

[castleford tiger] 21/7/2023 15:06

A steady climb back up. 20% gain so far.

[shaker45] 13/7/2023 02:28

These markets are like a minefield with all investors scared to put a foot wrong. So I don't expect Mpac to be re-rated until market sentiment improves. And that needs interest rates and inflation on downward trajectories. Until then, any good news will tend to be overlooked while possible bad news will be punished

[disc0dave45] 12/7/2023 19:31

TigerNo probs.I struggle to reconcile their order book with income outturn so who knows - they seem reluctant to issue meaningful (Rev / profit) numbers and overall I still don't see a quality company so seems priced about right IMO.Good luck though, you know the business better than I do.

[danieldruff2] 12/7/2023 10:15

There is no substitute to talking with the staff. I used to work at a FTSE250 company, still see my colleagues from time to time. I ask them about the business and they always say "managed decline", which is exactly what their share price has delivered over the years.

[castleford tiger] 12/7/2023 09:43

sorry for late reply i was at the tennis.

i have 105m and 26p eps for current year and 120m and 38p for 24.

A fair chunk of cash as well.
They have pointed out it will be weighted to 2nd half.
I play tennis at Tadcaster almost next to their site and i know a few people there who are very confident that business is good.

I think the shares look cheap ( but so many do right now) and can see 50% upside if they can deliver in line with forecasts.

[disc0dave45] 11/7/2023 12:47

TigerThe market could well be wrong. but then again!.What's your forecast Rev and eps for the year?, just curious as I can't reconcile their order book with actual income. Consensus Rev is £106m and eps 27p.

[castleford tiger] 11/7/2023 09:42

Disc0dave
Said……..
New 52 week low.
Tiger - the market disagrees.

Sometimes the market is wrong and that’s when you can make a few quid.
I think 350/400 in a years time is fair.
All the best
Tiger

[battyliveson] 11/7/2023 09:20

There does appear to be some potential upside here from my own analysis. I tend to use a discounted FCF to assess valuation. I ignore working capital swings and in this case took £5m FCF from 2024 and extrapolated out. Depending on growth assumptions and discount rate I got 30-60% upside on current market value.

My concern is pension scheme and second half delivery. Theoretically pension scheme deficit should lessen with higher interest rates, however, last years accounts mention use of LDI's and I have no idea whether this would have helped or hindered the position.

I am holding off for time being but certainly interested in starting a position when I have made myself more comfortable around these points.

B

[our haven] 11/7/2023 09:19

Good solid results, things are definitely looking up. Hopefully we will see a steadily rising share price from here.

[edmonda] 11/7/2023 08:04

Trading update: H1 meets expectations - new note from Equity Development:

In a Trading Update for the first half to 30 June 2023, Mpac reports that trading was in line with management expectations, reiterating - as stated at the AGM in May - that performance remains second half weighted, supported by the strength of the order book and projects underway. The Group closed H1 with a strong balance sheet and positive net cash.

Mpac notes that order intake for the year to date is significantly ahead at £62.4m compared to £32.8m a year earlier, with the H1 closing order book at £78.4m, +25%YoY above the start of FY23 (£62.7m). The performance of (higher margin) Service operations has also been strong, whilst the Group is able to report that supply chain issues that impacted completion of Original Equipment projects have now largely eased. This adds confidence for second half performance and a return to normalised margins: our FY23 gross margin outlook is 28.9%, for FY24 31.3% (FY19: 29.3%; FY20: 29.0%). We expect net debt of £4.7m to revert towards a positive FY23 net cash position of £7.5m.

On site commissioning of the assembly line at FREYR’s Battery Customer Qualification Plant in Norway continues.

Our FY24 outlook remains 11%YoY revenue growth and 35.0%YoY growth in (adj.) EBITDA with fair value for Mpac seen at 485p/share, indicative of a FY24 EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.9x.

[disc0dave45] 07/7/2023 19:41

New 52 week low.Tiger - the market disagrees.

[value viper] 06/7/2023 19:12

Trading update was on 11 July last year Assume one is due

[castleford tiger] 15/6/2023 15:14

i have been adding over the last 6 days

i really see this as cheap

tiger

[clanger66] 15/6/2023 09:32

56k just printed at 216p. Hopefully we've reached the point where demand will start to equal supply. It's really not taking much to move prices at the moment with liquidity in the market as a whole being dire so guess no surprise the price has slipped some 15 percent on little volume and no new news.

[value viper] 14/6/2023 14:55

Curious who is selling this is in reasonable chunks - odd imo Half decent recent update and director buying

[castleford tiger] 30/5/2023 22:51

Director buying