Mouchel Share Discussion Threads

[pikey01] 27/3/2012 05:42

whoppy: the sound of one hand clapping.

[whoppy] 26/3/2012 23:24

With the new management team and their strategy you can expect a recovery. You only have to look at today's trades to see how many are buying in.

"I am confident that the changes we have made to the management team and our plans to improve our operations and reduce debt will put us in a more stable and profitable position in the future."

[anandi] 26/3/2012 23:15

Sales growth would be expected to be down as the company had to fight two take over bids!

[whoppy] 26/3/2012 23:04

That above note rates it as a hold @ 16.75p. The rest of the bumf is rubbish.
Clearly today's share price makes it a buy. Anyone who can afford to wait for a turnaround will be rewarded handsomely. May come sooner than you think as strategically this is worth a lot more. That's the trouble with broker notes they only value a company on technicals. You have to also consider what it's value is worth to someone already in the sector which is why when bids come they are always at a premium to sp's.

[dugganjoe] 26/3/2012 22:50

hasnt peel hunt or some ofther broker got a share price target of 1p?

[whoppy] 26/3/2012 22:32

There is something wrong with that valuation.

[guru121] 26/3/2012 22:30

interesting bed-time reading.

[guru121] 26/3/2012 22:28

Mouchel Parkman Plc (MCHL.L)
16.75p
0.50 (3.08%) Thursday, March 15, 2012

MCHL.L is overvalued compared to its Price of 16.75p per share, has below average safety, and is currently rated a Hold.



Mouchel Parkman Plc (MCHL.L)






Business Svc (Consulting)








Company Information
Business: Mouchel Group plc, a consulting and business services group, supports primarily public-sector customer base in developing and managing their infrastructure assets in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company involves in the provision of highway engineering and management services; management of other professional services for local and central governments; and provision of services to utilities, rail companies, and other industries regulated by government.
Capital Appreciation
Value: Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. MCHL.L has a current Value of 0.82p per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of 16.75p per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease. VectorVest advocates the purchase of undervalued stocks. At some point in time, a stock's Price and Value always will converge.
RV (Relative Value): RV is an indicator of long-term price appreciation potential. MCHL.L has an RV of 0.02, which is very poor on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. This indicator is far superior to a simple comparison of Price and Value because it is computed from an analysis of projected price appreciation three years out, AAA Corporate Bond Rates, and risk. RV solves the riddle of whether it is preferable to buy High growth, High P/E stocks, or Low growth, Low P/E stocks. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RV ratings above 1.00.



RS (Relative Safety): RS is an indicator of risk. MCHL.L has an RS rating of 0.61, which is poor on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RS is computed from an analysis of the consistency and predictability of a company's financial performance, debt to equity ratio, sales volume, business longevity, price volatility and other factors. A stock with an RS rating greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average stock in the VectorVest database. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks of companies with consistent, predictable financial performance.
RT (Relative Timing): RT is a fast, smart, accurate indicator of a stock's price trend. MCHL.L has a Relative Timing rating of 1.29, which is very good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RT is computed from an analysis of the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price movements over one day, one week, one quarter and one year time periods. Once a stock's price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue in that trend for the short-term. If a trend dissipates, RT will gravitate toward 1.00. RT will explode from bottoms, dive from tops, and reflect changes in price momentum. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RT ratings above 1.00.
VST (VST-Vector): VST is the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. MCHL.L has a VST rating of 0.88, which is fair on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. VST is computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the squares of RV, RS, and RT. Stocks with the highest VST ratings have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the stocks to own for above average, long-term capital appreciation. VectorVest advocates the purchase of safe, undervalued stocks rising in price.
Recommendation (REC): VectorVest gives a Buy, Sell, Hold recommendation on every stock, every day. MCHL.L has a Hold recommendation. REC reflects the cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters working together. These parameters are designed to help investors buy safe, undervalued stocks rising in price. They also help investors avoid or sell risky, overvalued stocks falling in price. VectorVest recommends that investors buy high VST-Vector, Buy-rated stocks in rising markets.
OR
Stop (Stop-Price): Stop is an indicator of when to sell a long position or cover a short position. MCHL.L has a Stop of 11.11p per share. This is 5.64 belowp below MCHL.L's current closing Price. A stock's Stop is computed from a 13 week moving average of its closing prices, and is fine-tuned according to the stock's fundamentals. High RV, high RS stocks have lower Stops, and low RV, low RS stocks have higher Stops. In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a 'B' or 'H' recommendation if its Price is above its Stop and an 'S' recommendation if its Price is below its Stop.
GRT (Earnings Growth Rate): GRT reflects a company's one to three year forecasted earnings growth rate in percent per year. MCHL.L has a forecasted Earnings Growth Rate of -9.00%, which VectorVest considers to be very poor. GRT is computed from historical, current and forecasted earnings data. It is updated each week for every stock in the VectorVest database. GRT often foretells a stock's future price trend. If a stock's GRT trend is upward, the stock's price will likely rise. If GRT is trending downward, the stock's Price will probably fall. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks whose GRT is rising and is greater than the sum of current inflation and interest rates, as shown weekly in our investment climate report.
EPS (Earnings per Share): EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. MCHL.L has a forecasted EPS of -0.50p per share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): P/E is a popular measure of stock valuation which shows the dollars required to buy one dollar of earnings. MCHL.L has a P/E of -0.34. This ratio may be deemed to be high or low depending upon your frame of reference. The average P/E of all the stocks in the VectorVest database is 23.15. P/E is computed daily using the formula: P/E = Price/EPS.
EY (Earnings Yield): EY reflects earnings per share as a percent of Price. EY is related to P/E via the formula, EY = 100 / (P/E), and may be used in place of P/E as a measure of valuation. EY has the advantages that it is always determinate and can reflect negative earnings. MCHL.L has an EY of -99.00 percent. This is below the current average of 4.32% for all the stocks in the VectorVest database. EY equals 100 x (EPS/Price).
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): GPE is another popular measure of stock valuation. It compares earnings growth rate to P/E ratio. MCHL.L has a GPE rating of -26.87. High growth stocks are believed to be able to justify high P/E ratios. A stock is commonly considered to be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00 and overvalued when GPE is below 1.00. Unfortunately, this rule of thumb does not take into account the effect of interest rates on P/E ratios. The operative GPE ratio of 1.00 is valid when and only when interest rates equal 10%. With long-term interest rates currently at 6.34%, the operative GPE ratio is 0.40. Therefore, MCHL.L may be considered to be overvalued.
Dividend Information
DIV (Dividend): VectorVest reports annual, regular, cash dividends as indicated by the most recent payments. Special distributions, one-time payments, stock dividends, etc., are not generally included in DIV. MCHL.L does not pay a dividend.
DY (Dividend Yield): DY reflects dividend per share as a percent of Price. MCHL.L does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Yield rating. . DY equals 100 x (DIV/Price). It is useful to compare DY with EY. If DY is not significantly lower than EY, the dividend payment may be in jeopardy.
DS (Dividend Safety): DS is an indicator of the assurance that regular cash dividends will be declared and paid at current or at higher rates for the foreseeable future. MCHL.L does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Safety rating . Stocks with DS values above 75 typically have RS values well above 1.00 and EY levels that are much higher than DY.
DG (Dividend Growth Rate): Dividend Growth is a subtle yet important indicator of a company's financial performance. It also provides some insight into the board's outlook on the company's ability to increase earnings. MCHL.L does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Growth rating .
YSG (YSG-Vector): YSG is an indicator which combines DIV, DY and DG into a single value, and allows direct comparison of all dividend-paying stocks in the database. MCHL.L does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a YSG rating which is . Stocks with the highest YSG values have the best combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and Growth. These are the stocks to buy for below current income and long-term growth.
Price-Volume Data
Price: MCHL.L closed on Thursday, March 15, 2012 at 16.75p per share.
Open:MCHL.L opened trading at a price of 16.75p per share on Thursday, March 15, 2012.
High: MCHL.L traded at a High price of 17.36p per share on Thursday, March 15, 2012.
Low: MCHL.L traded at a Low price of 16.29p per share on Thursday, March 15, 2012.
Close: MCHL.L closed on Thursday, March 15, 2012 at 16.75p per share. (Close is also called Price in the VectorVest system)
Range: Range reflects the difference between the High and Low prices for the day. MCHL.L traded with a range of 1.07p per share on Thursday, March 15, 2012.
p Change: MCHL.L up 0.50 from the prior day's closing Price.
%PRC: MCHL.L's Price changed 3.08% from the prior day's closing price.
Volume: MCHL.L traded 2,246,486 shares on Thursday, March 15, 2012.
AvgVol: AvgVol is the 50 day moving average of daily volume as computed by VectorVest. MCHL.L has an AvgVol of 3,084,200 shares traded per day.
%Vol: %Vol reflects the percent change in today's trading volume as compared to the AvgVol. %Vol equals ((Volume - AvgVol) / AvgVol ) * 100. MCHL.L had a %Vol of -27.16% on Thursday, March 15, 2012
CI (Comfort Index): CI is an indicator which reflects a stock's ability to resist severe and/or lengthy price declines.MCHL.L has a CI rating of 0.11, which is very poor on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. CI is quite different from RS in that it is based solely upon a stock's long-term price history. VectorVest advocates the purchase of high CI stocks.
Sales / Market Capitalization Information
Sales: MCHL.L has annual sales of £551,000,000
Sales Growth: Sales Growth is the Sales Growth Rate in percent over the last 12 months. MCHL.L has a Sales Growth of -12.00% per year. This is very poor. Sales Growth is updated each week for every stock. It is often useful to compare Sales Growth to Earnings Growth to gain an insight into a company's operations.
Sales Per Share (SPS): MCHL.L has annual sales of 4.83p per share. SPS can be used as a measure of valuation when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.
Price to Sales Ratio (P/S): MCHL.L has a P/S of 0.03. This ratio is also used as a measure of valuation. Here, too, it is useful when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.
Shares: MCHL.L has 114,000,000 shares of stock outstanding.
Market Capitalization: MCHL.L has a Market Capitalization of £19,000,000. Market Capitalization is calculated by multiplying price times shares outstanding.
Business Sector: MCHL.L has been assigned to the Business Svc Business Sector. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 200 Industry Groups and 40 Business Sectors.
Industry Group: MCHL.L has been assigned to the Business Svc (Consulting) Industry Group. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 200 Industry Groups and 40 Business Sectors.

[htrocka] 26/3/2012 22:06

paragraph...9

[dugganjoe] 26/3/2012 21:59

htrocka - 25 Mar'12 - 21:34 - 3571 of 3574




whoppy, the Middle East statement could be a bit of 'saber ratteling' in view of an unpaid GBP12m bill.
from the news items
,The BPR project relates to a BPR contract undertaken in the UAE There is still approximately GBP12m trade receivables and unbilled revenue outstanding.,






If there is an unpaid bill , should file a winding up petition, better to do this now before possible administration i would think?

[wooster4] 26/3/2012 21:39

salpara - think you'll find his bonus is already running. He is incentivised for performance over the entire year not just the second six months.

[pikey01] 26/3/2012 14:52

The assumption has to be that he sunk everything he could in the end-of-year results rather than now, at half-year.

whoppy, not everything in that report was "old news" regurgitated. Did you read the whole thing?

Meantime, mid-afternoon and another load of trades gone through already today.

[salpara111] 26/3/2012 14:04

Given that they now have a new man in charge you can bet your life that he will "kitchen sink" every last piece of possible bad news in the upcoming results in order to get to ground zero, then he can set the clock running again for his future bonus.
There is no doubt that they will need more liquidity, how they acheive that is still open for debate but generally one would expect it to be less than beneficial for current holders.

[htrocka] 25/3/2012 21:34

whoppy, the Middle East statement could be a bit of 'saber ratteling' in view of an unpaid GBP12m bill.
from the news items
,The BPR project relates to a BPR contract undertaken in the UAE There is still approximately GBP12m trade receivables and unbilled revenue outstanding.,

[sally 1] 25/3/2012 21:33

DAVID KEOHANE SMALL CAP REPORTER FOR THE FT SIMPLY SAYS REPORTS SUGGESTED THAT A DEBT FOR EQUITY SWAP WAS AN OPTION TO REDUCE DEBT.THAT IS IT AN OPTION; ONLY ;ONE OF THE MANY WAYS OF SORTING OUT THE BALANCE SHEET.I MUCH LIKE THE REST OF YOU HAVE JUST ABOUT HAD IT LISENING TO ALL THE BO...KS FROM THE PRESS. THERE HAS BEEN NO DELIBIRATE LEAK FROM THE COMPANY .THERE IS DEFINATLEY A CONFLICT OF INTRESTS OR PERSONALITYS REGARDING SCHRODERS .AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME. IT APPEARS IT IS ONLY SCHRODERS SELLING; REGARDING FUNDMANAGERS.I KNOW L AND G REDUCED SOME OF THERE HOLDING A COUPLE OF MONTHS AGO BUT NOTHING SINCE THEN; IT APPEARS THAT ALL THE FUNDS EXCEPT SCHRODERS ARE HOLDING TIGHT.ANYWAY IAM DEFINATLEY TOPPING UP BIG TIME THIS WEEK . I AM MORE CONFIDENT THAN EVER.

[whoppy] 25/3/2012 19:50

All these press stories are old news. When GS were appointed on 1st March the share price rose and went on rising. It was seen as a positive sign. You don't call them in for no reason ie: rights issues, placings etc. The Telegraph article and the Times article are inaccurate. There will be no sale of the Middle East business and management cannot comment on idle speculation in the newspapers. These journo's just feed and speculate off one another without responsibly establishing the facts, repeating everything parrot fashion from one jorno to the other with stories appearing days even weeks later. Note there was no speculation in the press when GS were actually appointed. Obviously they have a short on the share and want to see it drop. imo. Another announcement at the beginning of April, after the half yearly statement, will be interesting and coincides with the £2Bn highways job in which Mouchel/Carillion or Amey will be chosen. I know which one my money is on. dyor.

"Mouchel has a strong core business – we have excellent staff and we provide services that our clients need and value. We successfully help government organisations to change the way they operate – we must continue to do likewise by improving our own operating model and reducing costs, and we now have the management team in place to make sure this happens.
We are also pleased to announce that we have reached agreement with our lenders on the terms of an amendment to our banking facilities. (Further details of these amendments are disclosed in the Finance Director's report.)"

"We have not performed to our potential or to our own expectations over the last year. However, Mouchel has continued to trade profitably on an underlying basis during the period. We have leading positions in our core markets of Highways, and Local Government, and a clear vision to do likewise in Regulated Industries. We have the expertise and ability to deliver sustainable long-term growth for the
benefit of all stakeholders.
I am confident that the changes we have made to the management team and our plans to improve our operations and reduce debt will put us in a more stable and profitable position in the future."


Middle East.

[dugganjoe] 25/3/2012 19:20

surely shume mishtake that directors own only £1,500 of shares?

[htrocka] 25/3/2012 18:52

'Mouchel is thought to be considering a debt-for-equity swap or issuing new shares'

Just like the Times article......that's not a primary source....

[htrocka] 25/3/2012 12:16

Debt...don't tell me...tell these..it doesn't seem to worry them....(ps...that sack must be from last years results...I don't think he'll need such a big one this year.)

[dugganjoe] 25/3/2012 09:55

Telegraph:
Mr Rumbles has hired Goldman Sachs to advise on the financial restructuring. Mouchel is thought to be considering a debt-for-equity swap or issuing new shares.


Look like shareholders will be diluted

[htrocka] 25/3/2012 09:34

'On Friday, shares in Mouchel closed at 10.88p, valuing the company at just £12.4m. In 2008, Mouchel shares reached 470p and in 2009 Mr Brough backed Mouchel's management when it decided to reject a 294p per share offer from VT Group'

Schroders piled in at circa 294p...and pulled out at 10p.... Schroders never stated why they sold......they never said why they bought in the first place iether?......one gets the sense that Schroders invest on the old 'fear and greed' phylosophy.


What ever the out come...an interesting week ahead.

[vivgav] 25/3/2012 09:19

Dont think the price will be doubling on that article!

[htrocka] 25/3/2012 09:14

So much for the Times article last week with third parties indicating that Goldmans are concidering a sale, equity issue..blah, blah,lah..The Telegraph reports from the 'horses mouth'...that Grant Rumbles objective is to turn the comopany around....(for which he will pick up a much earned bonus)


,The chief executive of Mouchel will this week unveil dramatic cost-cutting proposals in his bid to turn around the crisis-hit support services group
'