Mouchel Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 18/3/2012 22:20

Dunno but the shares are up nearly 15% in 3 days with around 5% of the co's shares traded looking at it tonight to make a 5 month closing high. That's what I find interesting.

CR

[asmith6893] 18/3/2012 20:43

Ok, so any ideas or guesses from people of the opening price tomorrow and weeks finishing price?

[whoppy] 18/3/2012 19:53

pikey, I'm hearing solo have struck oil and will go to 10p..I hear a lot of things but we won't know until it is confirmed in an RNS but I am betting on good news. Same here with MCHL..i've done my research and anticipate one or two wins for Mouchel particularly as one of it's competitors scooped the South West Highways agency contract worth £80M per year for the next 5 years, so they will be kept busy hopefully leaving MCHL to win their bid...dyor

[pikey01] 18/3/2012 19:28

Sheffield isn't announced until April, so if you *KNOW* mouchel have won it that will cause a lot of problems.

[knigel] 18/3/2012 19:21

trust u mean 2012 lol!

[htrocka] 18/3/2012 19:11

There is an item in the last banking facility upgrade that stipulated that a financial penalty will be imposed unless some form of balance sheet re-construction is not made by July 1012....so we are undoubtedly approachng a change of some sort.....but this may prove to be a benefit.....chill.

[whoppy] 18/3/2012 19:01

Well Mouchel have been very quite of late and so I am expecting plenty of news and detail in the IMS. I am hearing they have recovered some middle east debt £10M circa. and have a couple of big wins with Sheffield CC and the Highways Agency Area 10 contract. I know Atkins recovered non payment from the ME some £25M and Grant Rumbles operated in the ME for some 25 years so he should know how to get clients to cough up..imo

[cockneyrebel] 18/3/2012 18:58

By the way, Friday was the highest closing high since last Oct and broke the closing high of Nov.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 18/3/2012 18:54

I think one positive here is having Sir Michael lyons as Chairman. He's an economist, former head of the BBC and highly respected.

Part of my reason for buying was the G.Sachs appointment. For a start you don't appoint G.Sachs to get nothing for shareholders imo, you appoint adminstrators.

Personally I think some sort of agreement got penciled in Jan, Sachs come in in March to get the deal done. Probably a placing on the back of better than forecast trading in recent months since the IMS in Dec imo. Chart has been rising on volume since Jan despite Shroders, Pru and Henderson reducing as bit - unsual if any news was negative imo.

Just my feel, as I said above risk here as well as potential reward and just my opinion.

CR

[htrocka] 18/3/2012 14:05

the same here...If you look back into FT Archives...you'll notice the rise of AHT from 7p...to 45p....then an FT article which refered to the shares as 'dog of the week'...after the initial drop..it went onto 200p.(ps..debt worry and a black hole drove it down to 7p)...my bet is that someone wants your shares..

ps..Grant Rumbles 'old company' SERCO Is capitalised at 2711.46 millon pounds...with net debts of 1913.9m pounds....it never worried him there?

there's a possibilty we might get a 'handle' this week.

[bc4] 18/3/2012 12:03

If the last 18 months is anything to go by there will be bidders waiting in the wings

[cockneyrebel] 18/3/2012 11:11

Personally I think you listen believe press articles at your peril imo.

HOME were being knocked in the press 2 weeks ago then the results were out, there was no big divi cut as predicted and now they are breaking out with JP Morgan and others upping there forecasts and targets.

The second thing that doesn't jive is the way the chart is creeping up. If there's bad news in store charts tend to fall or be flat.

A story like this could just as easily be a scare story to allow larger buyers to get in ahead of a good deal imo.

All I know is the shares have risen on strongly on massive volume since Jan 16 and that's not usually the behaviour of a stock with bad news in store imo.

Obviously it's a high risk/reward and you don't get high reward without high risk.

They did say this at the Interim Management Statement:

"Our expectations for the year to July 2012 remain unchanged. The economic environment continues to put pressure on margins across our markets, as clients face cutbacks in spending. We have however, continued to win contracts and the actions to right-size the business are well under way, including plans to restructure the balance sheet of the Group within the first half of 2012 and return the Group to growth."

So some sort of funding/restructuring has been well flagged.

It's worth reding the Cheif Exec's report in the Annual Report too imo:



The picture I get is a company with a big debt issue but not insurmountable with a new board that have the ideas and experience to turn the co around imo.

Still, not for widows and orphans, a high degree of risk.

And I'm the man that bought Wier Group when it was on its knees in the 80's at 20p, sold them at 28p only to watch them go to £22 over the next 30 years or so :-(

CR

[knigel] 18/3/2012 10:52

The recent share price increase makes a D4E swap or rights issue for likely.

[spot1034] 18/3/2012 10:49

I don't see why they need to go down the debt for equity route if there's a viable alternative - surely they have a duty to shareholders in that respect. I have always believed (and have said so several times here) that a big issue of new shares is on the cards, but remember that this would go straight to repaying debt so - all other things being equal - it would in theory increase the market cap by the amount of debt paid off, as any buyer of the whole company would put a total value on the business and then deduct the debt before arriving at a price to offer for the shares. If such a fundraising led to a reduction in interest payments (so any remaining debt can be cleared quicker) and an improved outlook with the company able to bid for more work due to its balance sheet being less toxic, all the better. Even better still if they can combine a fundraising with some significant cost savings within the business, and that looks a runner as well.

What I'd like to see is a placing/open offer which is structured in such a way that existing holders can apply for a good number of new shares if they so wish, with any balance going to institutions. I think MCHL would be an excellent prospect going forward with a significant proportion of the debt repaid, and I can't see why there wouldn't be plenty of support.

[rayteuptetash] 18/3/2012 10:34

Also, you'd think Rumbles would want to dismiss 'Equity deal swap' rumors right away.

[htrocka] 18/3/2012 09:48

I'm curious to know if the Times article will 'rattle' the Institutions holding 40m ....if they hold on...it will be a positive signal.. I've had experience of press reports in a previous life...and the Times article would have required Mouchels consent prior to going to press....my bet is that the VT advisor is close to the wire regarding rns requirements...hence the article..


'I personally don't think the is anything shareholders didn't already know'


Pulling in Thomas...is new...we didn't know that....and is an important piece of infotmation....as it could be construde as an 'approach by the back door'

[asmith6893] 18/3/2012 09:34

Does anyone think this will have an impact on tomorrow's opening price?, I personally don't think the is anything shareholders didn't already know

[rayteuptetash] 18/3/2012 09:27

Eitherway HT, this will probably end the party till results

[htrocka] 18/3/2012 09:24

The 'cherry pickers'...will be back..(sorry...he,s already there).a couple of sales...and down goes the debt. It's not rocket science.

[monty panesar] 18/3/2012 09:17

Unfortunately the Sunday Times is probably right. The company can't survive in it's current form and massive dilution for current shareholders is the only real outcome.
Anyone invested is this must be prepared to lose all their money. GS will probably "rip the eyes out" of all shareholders and then keep the company for themselves.

[htrocka] 18/3/2012 09:15

Just a couple of points....Goldmans can ONLY advise..the board has the final decision...The BOD have had their fingers burnt in the past by taking the Nomads advice.

Interesting that Grant Rumbles has pulled in the VT man to advise....the very same man who increased the original offer (with his company's blessing) to 294p a share and valued MCHL at 330m pounds...I wonder if they're back again....at a much lower price to the last offer ?.(that would be a coup for Thomas)


'A source said Thomas would be advising Rumbles on the possible sale of the firm.'....hmmm interesting. (turkeys voting for Chritmas comes to mind...or a piece of cherry picking pie...)


Glynn Thomas, former corporate development director at VT Group, has been drafted in to help Grant Rumbles, Mouchel's chief executive, with strategy. A source said Thomas would be advising Rumbles on the possible sale of the firm. He spent a long time examining Mouchel while he was at VT, which failed in an attempt to buy the rival engineer




As far as the 90m debt is concerned...it's a bit heavy but......IRV carries 54m pound of debt(2010)..it's not a problem to them...A comment from the IRV CEO..'We believe we can double earnings per share over the next five years.'

no doubt the sector generally is on the up.(201O saw IRV'S Revenues drop)


one last comment...why did Goldmans come out with such a statement...a few days before the numbers come out?...I can only conclude that they are maximising the emphasis of the 90m figure from the LAST results ( a we're now in a closed period).......it may be lower when the interims are out in a few days time....so why didn't they wait?

I can only conclude that (and my opinion only) that putting two and two together and reading between the lines, Goldmans want to keep the lid on this untill deliberation with Thomas has been reached....Quotes from the press report above..."Goldmans ...is mulling the sale of the company".....and "Thomas is drafted in" (The strange irony is that IRV insisted that VT drop out of the original bidding process if IRV are to make an approach)

[bigbigdave] 18/3/2012 07:33

ST
Mouchel SOS over debt pile

GOLDMAN SACHS has been hired by Mouchel to advise the troubled engineering firm on how to tackle its £90m debt.

The investment bank is understood to be considering all options, including a debt-for-equity swap that would wipe out existing shareholders and hand ownership of the firm to its lenders.

Sources said Goldman is also mulling a break-up and sale of the business, as well as possibly issuing new shares to raise cash and pay down borrowings.

Glynn Thomas, former corporate development director at VT Group, has been drafted in to help Grant Rumbles, Mouchel's chief executive, with strategy. A source said Thomas would be advising Rumbles on the possible sale of the firm. He spent a long time examining Mouchel while he was at VT, which failed in an attempt to buy the rival engineer.

Mouchel was forced into rescue talks with its main banks - Barclays, Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland - last year after a huge profit downgrade following the discovery of a black hole in its accounts. An actuarial error on pensions led to it overestimating profits on a job by £4.3m, and it said that aggressive accounting on some contracts meant it would need to set aside another £4.3m.

The shares have fallen 88% in the past year. Mouchel declined to comment.

[paragon157] 18/3/2012 00:58

htrocka

Thanks for the info

[htrocka] 17/3/2012 14:27

This is on it's way..