Mouchel Share Discussion Threads

[paragon157] 23/12/2011 10:17

The Spivs/MMs seem happy to take stock in at 5p this morning you would have thought they would be bidding 4.25/4.5p perhaps there is a Buyer about at this level ? .. No doubt time will tell as always

[paragon157] 23/12/2011 10:13

Its all down to If/When the Seller/Sellers have Finished

[blueball] 23/12/2011 08:56

Bst buy @4p imo.

[guru121] 23/12/2011 08:52

SALLY,GOOD INFORMATIVE SENTIMENTAL POST,plz let us know when u buy your next lot as i want to jump in again to recover my losses.wish you all the best. cheers. surprisingly after all the sales yesterday and today the price is still holding well.

[paragon157] 23/12/2011 08:17

deanroberthunt

Lmao at you .. I'm nowhere near as full as the *hit that you post across the other Discussion Boards on a everyday basis .. Chum !

[targatarga] 23/12/2011 06:24

sally - you tell em.... caps lock stuck?

[sally 1] 23/12/2011 01:13

i swear this is the last time i will post on here. BUT TO THE SHAREHOLDERS OF MOUCHELL I WANT TO GIVE YOU SOME REAL HOPE AND I PROMISE YOU THIS IS NOT BO....KS. OK HERE WE GO COSTAIN IS NOTHING LIKE MOUCHELL COSTAINS PROFIT MARGIN ON TURNOVER IE CAPITAL EMPLOYED ARE 1.8 PERCENT AND GOING NOWHERE. NOW MOUCHELLS MARGIN ON TURNOVER IE CAPITAL EMPLOYED ARE EVEN NOW CLOSE TO 4 PERCENT AND HAVE POTENTIAL TO GO 5.5 PERCENT. NOW THE COMPANYS BALANCE THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SCENARIO S ONE IS DEBT FOR EQUITY CONVERSION WHICH COULD LEAVE SHARE HOLDERS WITH A DILUTED HOLDING UNTIL THE COMPANYS SHARE PRICE IMPROVED WITH TRADING ECT. NEXT SCENARIO A RIGHTS ISSUE THE SHARE PRICE WOULD HAVE TO BE RAMPED UP TO DO THIS IE 25 PENCE .THE THIRD SCENARIO THE COMPANY SELLS OFF CHUNKS OF THE COMPANY IN THE HOPE OF RAISING ENOUGH MONEY TO SURE UP THE BALANCE SHEET BUT THIS COULD DILUTE FUTURE POTENTIAL RECOVERY.THE FINAL SCENARIO AND I BELIEVE POSSIBLY THE MOST FAVOURED BY THE BOARD SELL NONE CORE PARTS OF THE COMPANY WHICH BELIEVE IT OR NOT COULD RAISE A LOT MORE MONEY THAN THE MARKETS VALUE AT PRESENT. WE ARE OWED A SUBSTANCIAL AMOUNT OF MONEY WHICH WE WILL HOPEFULLY RECIEVE IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS OR SO ,TRADING AND WINING NEW CONTRACTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS .THIS I BELIEVE WILL BE THE BOARDS CHOSEN PATH WITH MAYBE A SMALL RIGHTS ISSUE TO FOLLOW.IT APPEARS THAT IF GRANT RUMBLES CAN SHOW HIS WORTH TO THE BANKS AND SHARE HOLDERS THAT HIS SKILL AS THE NEW CEO IN TURNING THIS COMPANY AROUND IN ASOLID FAST AND WITH A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE THIS WILL BE ACHIEVED. THIS CHAP WILL PROVE HIMSELF ABSOLUTLEY THAT I DO KNOW. FINALY COSTAIN PROBABLY WONT GIVE HIM THE CHANCE THEY NEED THIS COMPANY. ANYWAY I HAD TO SERIOUSLY DO MY HOMEWORK ECT. I HAVE GOT ABOUT ENOUGH LEFT TO BUY ANOTHER 400 000 SHARES SO THATS IT THEN.GOOD BY GOOD LUCK AND HAVE A RELAXING CHRISTMASS TO ALL MOUCHELL SHARE HOLDERS. THE REST OF YOU ON THIS BOARD THAT ARE NOT SHAREHOLDERS OF THIS COMPANY YOU SAD BORING PRATS

[salpara111] 22/12/2011 20:46

For those who struggle to value the equity of the company.

I suggest you have a look at Costain.

The enterprise value of Costain is less than £20M, they have a T/O in excess of £1BN and make around £25M profit, they pay a divi of 5%.

While I appreciate that Costain and MCHL are not exactly the same type of enterprise, they are in allied sectors so I come to my question....why would MCHL have an enterprise value more than 5X that of Costain?

[paragon157] 22/12/2011 16:45

dealy

Agree can't be long now till the Spivs/MMs want the share price moving back up again .. Lol

[dealy] 22/12/2011 16:16

i reckon the big seller has cleared. this could creep back up steadily now. after all, the need for their services hasn't disappeared and the competition hasn't increased. ultimately survivors will flourish.

[scars] 22/12/2011 16:10

A real roller coaster of a ride here!

[overline] 22/12/2011 14:50

Liked to give mou the high five..... £5 down to 5p in 5years

[highly geared] 22/12/2011 14:27

dealy; wouldn't disagree but I think the market will require evidence that the ship has been steadied. The new guys have been there less than 3 months and these things take time. The H1 statement around outlook may give clues as to how they are doing..

[dealy] 22/12/2011 14:18

I thought the IMS had some positives:
- contract wins
- net debt static yoy
- new team in place focusing on business performance
- financing in place

All in all I think there is a reasonable chance of a recovery and a takeover. I think the company is worth more than debt so maybe 20 to 50p in equity value possible over the next 12 months

[highly geared] 22/12/2011 13:52

Dealy; I work in this sector (for a MCHL competitor) and spend much of my time bidding for work so I'm probably well placed to comment on the reality of the market.

The target margin for most in this sector is around 10% but this is impossible to achieve in this market and 5-6% is typically the out turn. This, however, is against a back drop of constant revenue generation pressure and the need to continually slash costs (head count) and reduce overheads (fixed costs such as offices, cars, central group support costs etc).The issue around overhead will be difficult if MCHL has signed up to long leases based on boom time space requirements; sub letting is very difficult as demand is poor.

You only have to look at the level of insolvency across contractors and small-medium consultants (architects , engineers etc) to see how dire things are.

The market is ascribing no value to MCHL due to the debt and the percpetion the compnay is in a mess (the recent RNS's are testament to this). Therefore the H1 results and outlook will be pivotal on whether this is a recovery play or a shareholder wipe out.

[targatarga] 22/12/2011 13:39

108m debt - wouldn't take it myself... pick up the contracts after admin... imho

[dealy] 22/12/2011 13:35

is everybody in the market 100% certain that the enterprise value of this company is worth less than the £108m debt?

[jameskerr] 22/12/2011 13:29

Make some room - The fat lady is on her way !!

[blueball] 22/12/2011 13:13

Oh dear this is .

[targatarga] 22/12/2011 12:57

turn the lights out...

[deanroberthunt] 22/12/2011 12:56

Sally

best not look at the share price today or you could be another xmas casualty....as its in freefall

[deanroberthunt] 22/12/2011 12:51

no, but sounds like she's on the edge :(