Mouchel Share Discussion Threads

[blueball] 15/12/2011 13:41

Best buy @4p.

[bachellor] 15/12/2011 13:36

tempted to buy.. but remember jarvis, hope its not going into adminstration

[deanroberthunt] 15/12/2011 13:28

Chairmna needs to dip his hands in his pockets......pronto

[the_beagle] 15/12/2011 12:46

6.25p to sell! Bought 100k at 10.4p. Saw £8k profit in 2 days. Sold 80k for very small profit. Hold 20k at £900 paper loss! What a plonker!!!

Seriously though, who is selling at this silly price? AT sells have been relentlessly knocking the share price for 10 days, but those shares have to have come from somewhere. Strange.

[scars] 15/12/2011 12:40

This has got to be hurting, is there any hope other than a buyer?

[deanroberthunt] 15/12/2011 11:23

12 SESSIONS, 11 DOWN, 1 UP...

[goliard] 15/12/2011 10:46

Maybe, but how long does that take? Who do you buy 29.9% from? You are not entitled to a seat on the board just because you have over 50% and worse, if you represent a major shareholder you cannot take part in any discussions relating to that shareholder or vote on any proposals made by them. The BoD must still act in the best interests of the company and could still rebuff you (although I doubt they would rebuff any bid at the moment!).

All I am saying is that hostile makes no sense. You could try, but why would you? Why waste the time and money? The BoD will be delighted if a bidder comes along and would open their books in an instant to anyone seen as remotely credible so there is simply no advantage to going hostile.

I am not saying hostil bids never work - they do, it just doesn't make sense here and it is hardly worth considering.

[mustardmark] 15/12/2011 10:13

Goliard - this all assumes 100% ownership. At these levels you could obtain effective control of the company through buying 29.9% of the share capital without going hostile. Develop a relationship with just a couple of the larger share holders and you have over 51%. With 51% you get someone on the board to represent you and all the previous issues of B0D rebuffs goes away. Let's face it, 29.9% at these levels is peanuts compared to the previous offers of over £1.35. Also, if the books were opened 9 months ago, there won't be huge movements, these contracts span several years, an asset is still an asset with a bit more depreciation etc etc. I do hold these and view it as a speculative punt by the way.

[goliard] 14/12/2011 15:51

They don't have up to date numbers and the position here has changed dramatically. Would you rely on the old numbers?

[paragon157] 14/12/2011 15:50

True .. Lol

[deanroberthunt] 14/12/2011 09:22

Goliard, Costain have already seen the books so have others.....

[goliard] 14/12/2011 08:45

Just to add, this makes a hostile bid for Mouchel unlikely as having BoD support and access to the books is crucial given its position.

[goliard] 14/12/2011 08:39

Anandi /Dean, often a potential bidder buys no shares. They approach management and ask for support (normally) and only go hostile if they want to proceed without support. They then buy shares from anywhere they can. At 30% you have to bid and it must be at least the highest price you recently paid for other shares, but you can sometimes, rarely, get a waiver not to have to bid, but this tends not to apply in this type of circumstance. The problem is that the company won't open it's books, so you are bidding blind and only have publically available info to go on. This is why hostile bids are so rare and often never happen after an approach is made. There is no obligation on the company to announce they have received an approach, so they often go unreported and just fade away.

There are of course different ways that things happen, but this is the most normal.

[guru121] 14/12/2011 08:34

I spoke with the lady who has been in the thick of it,the new top tier management and raised my concerns reg.company,shareprice,takeover,etc.Her replies,we have the new executive including the turnaround specialist david shearer.Mr Rumbles has clearly stated the company is not going bust.We are taking a medium to long term view.In medium term we will start winning the contracts as the banks r happy.We are taking a strategic view,Ernst & Young have been appointed.We are changing the operating model.We will take every single step to reduce overheads that may include getting rid of millions worth of equity.We are keeping all our options open including being taken over.Next AGM is in January & we wil be able to give you the precise positive direction of the company.Share price doesn't mean any thing now.some II'S are not happy so they r getting rid of the stock,cant to much about that.

[knigel] 13/12/2011 22:33

So are you saying if the share price drifts further down to 4p - 6p, it may be a high risk buy as everything (except administration) will be factored in?? Just wondering, because I am very tempted to take a (small) punt..(mind you I am thinking the same for HHR, AAT, HAMP, FDL, PVCS etc etc etc!!!)

[hairballradical] 13/12/2011 21:53

For what its worth, I have sold out of these after being badly burned shortly after the bids were rejected. All future profits, if there are any, are destined for the banks. If they were to look to raise £10m (which would make no dent in the debt) they would dilute the share price down to less than 4p. Even selling off parts of the business would only go towards paying off some of the debt. The only option out there as i can see is for a cash rich company to buy. They would be able to absorb it with the debt overhang having nowhere near the same drag effect as it would otherwise have for some time to come. This is not advice but a view and on that basis sorry .... but I'm out.

HBR

[highly geared] 13/12/2011 20:19

Look at the recent DTZ take out; nil value for shareholders. The issue is the debt as it was with DTZ against a back drop of declining revenues and margins.
There may be trading bounces here but until they turn it around and start paying down debt then a serious re-bound looks unlikely...?

[deanroberthunt] 13/12/2011 18:44

you are correct Anandi, once you reach 30% you have to make a bid.

[anandi] 13/12/2011 18:20

I thought a hostile bid was when a potential buyer bought up sufficient shares to achieve a majority holding by buying privately from holders rather than through the open market. I have been approached several times with this in mind, the most recent only last week.

[deanroberthunt] 13/12/2011 17:18

don't they have to be approved by all major shareholders

[goliard] 13/12/2011 17:06

Sorry Dean, but that is just wrong. A hostile bid is much harder to win and the rules applying to the bidder are very onerous. Any sensible bidder avoids going hostile unless he has absolutely no choice. Any bid would normally have a condition of BoD support attached to it, along with an exclusivity clause or the bidder will walk. As a bidder, you achieve this only with BoD support. I have been involved in a number of these and you would not believe the number of potential bids that boards rebuf and go unreported in the media as the buyer just walks away. Happens all the time. The fact that previous bids were turned down is completely irrelevant to what happens in this position.

[deanroberthunt] 13/12/2011 16:33

well keep avg'ing down now with avg of 8.95p....

[deanroberthunt] 13/12/2011 13:24

oh well good whilst it lasted :(

[deanroberthunt] 13/12/2011 12:36

only a hostile bid would work now.....no way a bid would be approved after turning two down for 264p and 165p resp.