Mouchel Share Discussion Threads

[goliard] 22/12/2011 12:45

So you're not at 3% then?

[goliard] 22/12/2011 12:39

Dean, correct. I thought this was under rule 8.3 at the moment, but it's not. Having said that, from Sally's post she may have over 3%.

[bobby.ifa] 22/12/2011 12:32

If you were a potential customer to Mouchel you'd run a mile from them as the Company is unstable & look like they couldn't support or deliver any contracts let alone any 5 year awards to run council services. This looks like it's in terminal decline, another Jarvis.

[dealy] 22/12/2011 12:20

3% Ebit margin is not the normalised margin for this type of business. It's not a construction company. 6% is more like it.

[highly geared] 22/12/2011 12:15

If they can maintain c. £500 million T/O at 3% net margin then £15 million operating profit. 6x earnings (that's the going top quartile rate for construction cosultancy buy outs) doesn't even cover net debt , hence why MCHL valued where it is.

As someone said, no reason to buy these until a turn around is evident (presumably H1 results will be out in March/April?).

Personally don't see them going bust but the reference to balance sheet restructuring in the IMS is a big concern for shareholders.

The next 12 months will determine if they survive; the new team have this period to turn it around. If they can get a grip on costs, maintain revenues around £500 million and eek an extra 1-2% margin out and can start paying down say £5-10 million debt annualised, then they may become worthy of a punt.

We may see some short term technical trading opps but can;t see a sustained recovery until H1 results are out with a full year outlook statement that has enough positives in it to convince the market.

[deanroberthunt] 22/12/2011 12:15

its over 3% one has to declare, not 1.

[goliard] 22/12/2011 12:02

Sally1, You say you are £160k down here and I am guessing that is about half of your investment. Assuming you still have about £160k left invested then you would have had to release an RNS stating your opening position as you hold more than 1% of the shares. Can you tell me where that RNS is please?

[spot1034] 21/12/2011 20:25

The new team in charge have acknowledged that. They are not the ones who brought the company to where it is today.

[petersmith6] 21/12/2011 20:08

muchel need to radicaly look at the office space and over heads.they are living a life style they simply cant afford. so it prueing time.

[magpie99] 21/12/2011 15:51

Half office space empty apparently
Losing a customer
Admitted capital situation is not conductive to bidding for work
Staff morale?
Existing contracts - How safe- Clients happy?

Positives ?

Before this happened I posted to this BB criticising the previous management and Schroders. My post was altered to remove specific names mentioned ( presumably ADFN?. I think I have now been very much proved right in my opinion, so I am disappointed that my right to free speech was edited.

[bachellor] 21/12/2011 15:43

the rate at the way this is going, they may anoounce administration on 31 dec 2011

[pikey01] 21/12/2011 14:56

Nurse! Someone's stolen Sally's tablets again.

Ask Rochdale Council if they think this company do everything to the "quality standard" you describe.

[sally 1] 21/12/2011 14:45

hi again this is my take on this situation this company is on its knees that fact we all know. this company is still making money.This company has tremendous growth potential in the right hands. The quality of work that mouchel carries out is first class no one has denied this.IF the balance sheet was shored up this company is a jem. NOW COSTAIN BID ON MOUCHELL 3 TIMES ONLY 8 MONTHS AGO THIS OFFER WAS CIRCA 250 MILLION POUNDS, THE DEBT LEVEL AT THAT TIME WAS 87 MILLION AS IT IS NOW .WHAT HAS CHANGED IS THIS GOVERMENT CUTS PROFIT WARNING MOSTLY RELATING TO GOODWILL RIGHT DOWN. NOW MOUCHELL TAKEN OVER BY COSTAIN WHO DO HAVE A STRONG BALANCE SHEET AND EXCELLENT FUNDING IN PLACE WOULD BE TRANSFORMATIONAL NOT JUST FOR MOUCELL BUT FOR COSTAIN ALSO. NOW MOUCHEL IS OWED MONEY AND IT IS POSSIBLE WE MIGHT GET IT SOON THAT COULD ALSO BE TRANSFORMATIONAL .AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME THIS COMPANY IS BEING HAMMERED FROM EVERY ANGLE BUT THINGS CAN CHANGE VERY QUICKLY VERY QUICKLY INDEED WHERE MARKETS ARE CONCERNED . I FOR ONE WILL NOT BE A DEFEATEST. WE MUST HOLD OUR NERVE wishing you all the very best

[sally 1] 21/12/2011 14:45

hi again this is my take on this situation this company is on its knees that fact we all know. this company is still making money.This company has tremendous growth potential in the right hands. The quality of work that mouchel carries out is first class no one has denied this.IF the balance sheet was shored up this company is a jem. NOW COSTAIN BID ON MOUCHELL 3 TIMES ONLY 8 MONTHS AGO THIS OFFER WAS CIRCA 250 MILLION POUNDS, THE DEBT LEVEL AT THAT TIME WAS 87 MILLION AS IT IS NOW .WHAT HAS CHANGED IS THIS GOVERMENT CUTS PROFIT WARNING MOSTLY RELATING TO GOODWILL RIGHT DOWN. NOW MOUCHELL TAKEN OVER BY COSTAIN WHO DO HAVE A STRONG BALANCE SHEET AND EXCELLENT FUNDING IN PLACE WOULD BE TRANSFORMATIONAL NOT JUST FOR MOUCELL BUT FOR COSTAIN ALSO. NOW MOUCHEL IS OWED MONEY AND IT IS POSSIBLE WE MIGHT GET IT SOON THAT COULD ALSO BE TRANSFORMATIONAL .AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME THIS COMPANY IS BEING HAMMERED FROM EVERY ANGLE BUT THINGS CAN CHANGE VERY QUICKLY VERY QUICKLY INDEED WHERE MARKETS ARE CONCERNED . I FOR ONE WILL NOT BE A DEFEATEST. WE MUST HOLD OUR NERVE wishing you all the very best

[jamesryan123] 21/12/2011 11:08

Can anyone come up with a logical reason why the likes of costain would buy this company? You are effectively just buying debt and a range of people who need paying. The contracts in place, as has been seen this week, are not secured or guaranteed. If the order book takes another big hit then the company could be verging on its liabilities exceeding its projected future income. It wouldnt take long before technical insolvency comes along.

There has been one similar company to this who anyone invested should read through the history of. White Young Green. In 2008/2009 they suffered very similar issues with insurmountable debt levels. A debt for equity swap was carried out, the firm de-listed (but survived) and is now re-listed on AIM. The shareholders were, as ever, bottom of the pile.

Bear in mind the firm may be able to survive, but that doesn't guarantee the shareholders investment will.

[targatarga] 21/12/2011 10:05

anyone tried to terminate their advfn accounts... small prints a pain. months notice in writing etc... imho

[paragon157] 21/12/2011 10:01

The market certainly does at the moment not many "PI's" are Winners on virtually anything these days "imo" the Spivs/MMs are the only Winners currently .. But if you do Win you will probably Lose it again soon anyway ? .. Lol

[targatarga] 21/12/2011 07:24

sally - were all being screwed... Just look at the massive falls in blinx and pursit etc.... the market sucks you up and spits you out! all imho

[paragon157] 21/12/2011 00:47

Many Thanks "sally1" for your support .. Lol

[sally 1] 21/12/2011 00:01

im back and i feel gutted just like the rest of holders in this stock i am over a hundred and sixty grand out. i will not sell out at this crazy level .if the funds are bailing out thats because they have to.we do not have to sell after all it is are hard earned money and our decision. Dont lose the plot DO NOT PANIC DO NOT SELL OUT. THIS COMPANY HAS BEEN PUT UP FOR SALE IT WILL BE SOLD THE GAME IS FAR FROM OVER WE ARE BEING PLAYED AT THE MOMENT. ITS TIMES LIKE THIS WHEN ALL LOGIC GOES OUT OF THE WINDOW THIS COMPANY HAS A FUTURE IT WILL COME TROUGH AND WE WILL LOOK BACK AND SAY THANK F/// FOR THAT. GRANT WILL NOT LET US DOWN.COSTAIN WILL BE HERE SOON JUST WAIT AND SEE

[dealy] 20/12/2011 23:28

there are plenty of shares that have fallen continuously over the last 2 weeks - all across Europe and the US. Just take a look a Blinx, RIMM, Bank of America, Lloyds, First Solar, Vestas Wind Systems, Gold, Silver, Bowleven.... There has been a huge liquidation of stocks, commodities and bonds by banks.

No I agree that Mouchel is a special case but the whole market for non blue chip shares in recent weeks has been horrific. Today though a lot of these shares bounced.

[deanroberthunt] 20/12/2011 20:59

15 sessions, 14 down, 1 up

[hairballradical] 20/12/2011 19:43

The only hope for Mouchel is a takeover by the likes of one of the larger US consultancies or UK support services that had been sniffing about before. They may be able to withstand the debt over a period and make good use of the rolling contracts already in place.

Without this, it is either the banks who will own it or a break up which amounts to the same thing as the debt is repaid from the proceeds.

IMHO

[mulebraker] 20/12/2011 13:48

looks like the end


RIP