Motif Bio Share Discussion Threads

[timbo003] 23/6/2015 11:11

I see year end results for Amphion (AMP) are out today.

At last we will be able to see a more up to date view of where all the debt and liabilities are.

NAV/share at Dec 31st was 0.7p/share
NAV/share at June 19th was 10p/share (post placing)

Motif share price was around 60p/share on June 19th, its now around 65p, so that adds another £1.4M to the market cap, with just under 200M shares in issue that corresponds to around 0.7p/share (every 7p change in Motif corresponds to a 1p change in AMP NAV/share).

Therefore NAV/share for AMP is approximately 11p/share, so at 6.75p/share they are trading on a discount or around 40% (£1 coins selling for 60p)

Quite a cheap way into Motif if you don't mind owning a chunk of other stuff.

[granada7] 23/6/2015 10:04

Aughton

Why is it you need to make digs , your last few posts have been slight digs, its not necessary.


Good luck to you too, u may need it too.

[supercity] 23/6/2015 09:59

If I may...The share price has only been above 50p for a few weeksI can't see the exact volume but guessing by the chart (using a phone) I would say 15-20 million traded shares in that timeTake out the time it actually dropped and you are talking a few million at mostThey have issued 44 million sharesThere is now possible scenario there where anyone has shorted the shares before they announced the issue todayYou could say with 99% certainty in this instance those involved in the share issue hold all their shares and have not shorted pre issueThe volumes and price movement simply don't add up to that happeningI don't hold any shares...I missed out buying at lower levels but if I did I couldn't be more confident looking at the action here - good luck

[aughton 3] 23/6/2015 09:58

Got to laugh good luck Granada you will need it

[granada7] 23/6/2015 09:50

Mirabeau

Yes. You are correct.

Aughton.

Apologies as you don't seem to be getting a grasp of it.

>> ALL - apologies for clogging the thread on forward selling issues

[aughton 3] 23/6/2015 09:48

The II will sell at todays price or earlier when they knew a placing was going to happen. They will get their placing shares to close their position and be flat.

that is your post above so you are saying the institutions have sold , so if they have there wont be a holdings rns coming in the next few days will there!

fact there will be

[mirabeau] 23/6/2015 09:46

It is surely then naked short selling? You are selling something you don't yet own

[mirabeau] 23/6/2015 09:44

Effectively you sell shares you don't yet have ownership of but because you know they will be delivered (the company as confirmed this) you can sell short and be guaranteed of buying the same number of shares back when the placing is admitted to the market.

Is this correct G7?

[granada7] 23/6/2015 09:41

Forward selling is that....u sell first. Then u get them back. In your post u think they buy first which they don't.

[granada7] 23/6/2015 09:41

Aughton Actually they would hold the same. E.g they hypothetically forward sell 25% at 70pThey get 25% back in the placing.

[aughton 3] 23/6/2015 09:35

So if they bought 23% in the placing and have already sold some they wont hold 23% will they

They will have to issue a holding rns.

If only you knew as much as you think you do.

Good Luck trading

[granada7] 23/6/2015 09:19

AughtonI'm not sure you fully understand forward selling. but worth reading up on it for interest and to see how markets work. Ps. I'm not completely mad

[granada7] 23/6/2015 09:18

AughtonNo you are wrong. If they forward sold x amount, and get the x amount back via placing....no rns is needed. Because they hold the same amount.Hope that makes sense.

[aughton 3] 23/6/2015 09:16

so IF INVESCO have sold (which is insider dealing as they were signed inside on the placing)when the holding RNS comes out they wont hold 23% will they, all will be revealed shortly..

100% shorting pre placing goes on, but as i said if you think INVESCO are doing that when buying 23% of a company you really are mad

[regandharry5] 23/6/2015 09:10

Thought (hoped) we might see blue today, but didn't think I would see it this early.

[granada7] 23/6/2015 09:04

1bondI'm not debating who is a quality blue chip or not. Every Institution thinks they are.But if you could make totally risk free profit would you not do it?Maybe institutions are squeaky clean these days who knows.

[granada7] 23/6/2015 09:01

HenleyYou have to look at the markets and the gatekeepers.Have the gatekeepers ever prosecuted with any vigour the insider dealings. The market isn't whiter than white. Insider dealings happen every day. We all see it.So often a so runs up a day before a cracker rns, or massive selling a day before a profit warning.....what do the gatekeepers do about it? They will always do v little.Re:forward selling. ...tot up the shares traded in the last month or so and I'm sure the number will surprise you. Plenty of volume to forward sell if anyone wishes to do so.

[1bond] 23/6/2015 09:00

G7. Qualily BLUE CHIP Institutions dont play that game and have strick compliance wall crossing rules. Look at the Institutions involved, not spivs. Why would they short,(not allowed) only to buy back the same amount.

[godolphin] 23/6/2015 09:00

henley2 - my gran bought them all she has 60% of the company now and woe betide anyone who doesn't supply her with the stock!

[granada7] 23/6/2015 08:55

Also Mirabeau as you know the institutions still has their x millions at 50p but have just made a tidy profit risk free.They get a good share placing and a risk free profit to boot. While PIs have been buying without any knowledge of what was going on in the background.

[henley2] 23/6/2015 08:54

Have you heard the term "made an insider" and legally what that restricts you from doing, ie dealing in the securities in which you are made an insider.

Can you also tell me how the places would have been able to forward sell 25 million share on the market?

[mirabeau] 23/6/2015 08:53

G7

That's excellent. An eye-opener for a somewhat neive investor

Finally, I am beginning to understand how this game works and how for it to work you must be an insider with knowledge of what is to come. A eureka moment for me

Many, many thanks

[granada7] 23/6/2015 08:49

MirabeauPost 367 explains it briefly.The said institutions must have known weeks ago that they would be offered shares at 50p. The price then may have been 70p.So that kinda put a stop to the rise as MMs knew too a placing was happening.The said institutions obviously agreed to take shares at 50pSo they had X millions at 50p agreed. The share price was 70p. They will have known once the RNS saying 50p placing comes the price will drift.So any savvy institution will have gone short at 70p to the same number of shares they would get at 50p. For arguments sake let's say 10m at 70p sold....10m at 50p placing received.20p x 10m shares is profit ...risk free.Happens with all placings.Which institution would not forward sell risk free? That's my view on how it works. Just my view before Aughton wants to report me to INVESCO or others.

[hazl] 23/6/2015 08:44

Recovering beautifully

IMO

[mirabeau] 23/6/2015 08:42

G7

Can you explain the technicalities of forward selling by insiders and a dilutive share placing? How do insiders profit and why is it that small shareholders get screwed over? More to the point are company management aware that their shareholders are being taken to the cleaners?

If you haven't the time then fine, cheers