Motif Bio Share Discussion Threads

[hazl] 10/6/2015 11:06

Nothing goes up in a straight line but I think this sector is so hot at the moment that there are plenty of people waiting in the wings to get in.


So I personally don't expect it to drop far.
My view entirely.

IMO

[hannahh] 10/6/2015 10:38

If you would like to hear Motif discuss their plans will be hosting a webinar with Graham Lumsden, CEO, today at 1pm.

He will give a 25 minute presentation with an opportunity for Q&A at the end.

If you would like to participate, please register now:

hxxps://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7391933477407645953

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

If you would like to submit any questions for management ahead of the meeting please send them to [e-mail].

Thanks,
The Equity Development Team

[hannahh] 10/6/2015 10:37

If you would like to hear Motif discuss their plans will be hosting a webinar with Graham Lumsden, CEO, today at 1pm.

He will give a 25 minute presentation with an opportunity for Q&A at the end.

If you would like to participate, please register now:

hxxps://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7391933477407645953

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

If you would like to submit any questions for management ahead of the meeting please send them to [e-mail].

Thanks,
The Equity Development Team

[small crow] 09/6/2015 22:29

Good communicator and seems on top of it all. Impressive.

[onedayrodders] 09/6/2015 21:44

I still see we have our "40p top" Knight in Shining Armour poster.

;o)

[granada7] 09/6/2015 20:16

lol 265jack, the guys whose set a record buying 25 stocks in 4 days and losing on all of them.

[65jack] 09/6/2015 20:07

You mean your a patient for the NHS in the mental ward!!

I would take with this idiot says with a large pinch of salt

[granada7] 09/6/2015 19:58

vulgaris

working in the NHS i have to agree, there are generic cheaper alternatives. The NHS wont be buying this, thats a guarantee imho.

[timbo003] 09/6/2015 16:08

>>>>>>Vulgaris,

yes, the cost of 10 day treatment at $3,650 does seem a bit high, it is a fairly exact number, so presumably calculated, but from what? It's perhaps worth just clarifying that they do base this on 2019 prices (not 2015).

Also worth pointing out that the Northland note seems to refer to total sales up to the end of 2025, rather than annual sales of $1Bn/annum.

[vulgaris] 09/6/2015 15:01

Hot maybe; highly profitable, no. That's why a lot of big pharma has dropped out.

Typical NHS acquisition costs for branded competitor agents (linezolid, ceftaroline and daptomycin) are about £750-1000 per course; generic vancomycin is cheaper but one must add on the cost of monitoring levels in the patient. New 1-2 dose treatments (dalbavancin and oritavancin) are being marketed in the the Us for around $2000 per course.

Iclaprim has a lot to prove if it is going to be priced at double these levels, even disregarding the likelihood that the linezolid price will have been cut dramatically by the time it is launched.

None of this need trouble those who hold for a day or two before selling out, but should interest those who expect either a $1bn p.a. product or rapid support from big pharma, especially given the compound's chequered history.

[hazl] 09/6/2015 14:34

antibiotics....is the hottest topic around surely?

IMO

[vulgaris] 09/6/2015 14:12

Timbo, above.....

Cost of 10 day treatment $3,650

Unless some unique benefit can be demonstrated, this modelling belongs to the realms of fantasy

Generic linezolid will be available in most countries by next year and is likely to be less than 10% of this price

[hazl] 09/6/2015 12:35

thanks timbo

[timbo003] 09/6/2015 10:50

I've now had a chance to look at the Northland broker note (target 89p/share)

They get the price target using a risk adjusted discounted cash flow method, rather than using a finger in the air method of taking an average of the sorts of deals which have recently been completed in related areas (as used by Panmure in their broker note on Scancell).

They split the valuation into ABSSSI and HABP

For ABSSSI they assume partnering in 2016 with milestone payments of $40m. partner takes on all development costs and Motif get a 15% royalty on sales. US launch in 2018, Europe 2019 and ROW in 2020, addressable market 2m patients per year in the US, 1m Europe, 1m ROW. Market penetration in first year 0.3% rising to 1.2% in year 5. Cost of 10 day treatment $3,650

For HABP they assumes partnering in 2016 with milestone payments of $60m. Partner takes on all development costs and Motif get a 15% royalty on sales. US launch in 2019, Europe 2020 and ROW in 202i, addressable market circa 500K patients per year in the US, circa 250K Europe and circa 250K ROW. Market penetration in first year 1.8% rising to 15.8% in year 5. Cost of 10 day treatment $3,650.

Total (not annual) sales by 2025 could be $1Bn

[hazl] 09/6/2015 08:23

There's no keeping it down it seems....

IMO

[regandharry5] 09/6/2015 07:46

Yes, good RNS, lets push on towards 70p today.

[kidknocked] 09/6/2015 07:18

Good update from the company today. Glad to be invested here.

[ipoman007] 08/6/2015 15:11

Understanding Motif Bio with CEO: hxxp://www.ig.com/uk/market-insight-videos?bctid=4282947863001&bclid=3671160850001
also talks about funding and a possible Nasdaq listing

[regandharry5] 05/6/2015 13:39

Will we finish blue?.

[trotterstrading] 04/6/2015 11:27

Reg, I've now sold my remaining stake in Motif and ploughed into AMP, less risk than Motif IMO (they have a portfolio of 7 companies) but shared reward if Iclaprim is sucessful.

Of course I still wish Motif well, their sucess will boost AMP