Motif Bio Share Discussion Threads

[granada7] 01/6/2015 07:27

Think I will pick up more AMP

[regandharry5] 01/6/2015 07:20

Yipeeeeeeeeee Looks like we're off to a good start this week ..

[vulgaris] 29/5/2015 18:39

Trotters--- Agree(!) In the short term sentiment and emotion dominate price moves. And, if trials are financed and run, they'll take at least 2 years. So sentiment and emotion have lots of time yet. But, in the end it always comes down to fundamentals, profits and products.

Much therefore depends on your time scale.

As an aside, I shall be impressed (and pleased) if they can do regulator-satisfying trials at £15m-20m a go. Big pharma keep quoting $60-$100m to me (£40-67m) and I suspect they get rooked shockingly by the CROs to whom they subcontract the work; this is one of the reasons that they then consider antibotic development to be commercially unattractive..... If Motif (or anyone else) shows that trials can be done more cheaply they'll have done a useful public service.

[trotterstrading] 29/5/2015 16:52

Valgaris, the reason you don’t see the value in Motif is clearly due to your risk appetite, IMO you’re not seeing the bigger picture.. from 30p I have been saying it doesnt matter if the trials are sucessful (which I believe they will be), this will be @ 60,70,80p or even more long before we find out the results, plenty of time to bank a profit and let the rest run risk free. The key here is market perception - Anitbiotic resistance is getting plenty of media attention and pressure from Govts on Big Pharma, they need to be seen to be doing something.. hence why funding will be secured (P3 trial projected costs are £15m - £20m each, as per the CEO - but of course this will be confirmed once they confirm the CRO)

Shawcross looks a very solid investment btw, best of luck with it.

[apfindley] 29/5/2015 16:09

Motive MTVNext to blow 10 bagCity boys loading up to pump it next week.

[duxy786_3] 29/5/2015 15:50

PS Granada7, thought I'd seen you somewhere before, now I remember....HNR, one of my top pics for 2015....its looks like you might be a holder there. Wish you all the best son.


See you here again if we hit 34p....if not...thats great too. Win-Win either way for me now.....adiós!

[duxy786_3] 29/5/2015 15:44

Liar just got caught out. AEX btw is in the same place, am making all of £160 since it went from my buy price to where it is now. Am holding a nice quantity (750K Shares @ 2.02p average) and I expect the share price will be 6-7p on the next spike up but am sure you will disagree and I will prove you wrong, just the way it goes these days bruv!

[granada7] 29/5/2015 14:34

Duxy

grow up and act like an adult, and not the village idiot

[duxy786_3] 29/5/2015 14:18

Sorry, when did I say you were on filter? Stupid man

[granada7] 29/5/2015 14:05

Duxy

you stupid man...has a CRO been agreed?

I think you need english lessons as I know its not your first language.

Hows AEX? besides youve said numerous times im on filter.....i put it to you that your filter button is broken.

[dosser2] 29/5/2015 14:02

Sold a few as well. Hope to buy more another time.

[duxy786_3] 29/5/2015 13:10

duxy786_3 15 May'15 - 12:03 - 205 of 284

29.5p buy earlier which Granada thought was a few pennies difference is now nicely in profit. Don't think we will see the 20's again. Onwards n upwards.


Granada7 15 May'15 - 12:09 - 206 of 284

"Duxy...I suggest u try to get facts right.
This IMHO will be back at 25p before a CRO is agreed.
Let's see, there's time yet."

duxy786 15 May'15 - 12:44 - 207 of 284

Granada....hope you short it...really do. Advfn could do with less pondlife when peeps lile you get wiped out.


------

Well Granada, Its been fun, I hope your short went well fool!

I sold earlier at 43p. Having bought at 25.5p and 29.5p, Loved the nice rise up and am happy to Lets 25% of my profits run but pull the rest, including my cash, out. I may have a topup if the MM's drop this back to 29p but if not...nothing to loose now.

Thanks again, where you heading to next, you seem like a very good indicator something is going up. Saved the hard work of research and DD when all we have to do is follow you! HA HA

C ya!

[vulgaris] 29/5/2015 12:24

Rodders --- indeed it has seen 40p before it see 1p. I said it might, exactly as you quote.

Nevertheless it remains a punt:

£20m in the bank isn't enough to pay for Phase III, they will need a partner, or to raise a lot more money (trials are about $60-100m a pop)

Motif have not spelt out how they will overcome the efficacy and toxicity issues raised when Arpida sought a license. They need to do so. Simply saying that they'll compare to vancomycin rather than linezolid isn't good enough, when both vancomycin and linezolid are agreed equivalent in ABSSSI. Perhaps they have some clever new dosage regimen (given the EMA's comments on efficacy and T>MIC vs toxicity I'd wonder if it might fare better if given in smaller more frequent doses).

I have not seen discussion here or elsewhere on patent life, but it needs to be spelt out A lot must be gone already. Is the business model predicated on a new formulation, giving a patent extension, or on the limited exclusivity offered by the GAIN Act in the US?

It is common practice to assert that a new antibacterial will acheive $1bn p.a turnover. I hear it about every one. Few make it...... linezolid and daptomycin did so, but were among the first modern anti-MRSA drugs to be launched. Ceftaroline (AZ, licensed for ABSSSI and CAP and very active vs MRSA & multi-resistant Strep pneumoniae, exactly as for iclaprim) has been out for a couple of years and is going nowhere, despite being a good agent in a trusted antibotic class.

Lastly it fascinates me that that Motif gets so much positive discussion, when so risky, whereas Shawbrook (the challenger bank), rising daily and actually generating profits, gets so little. I know which I'd rather buy into.

[onedayrodders] 29/5/2015 10:45

Granada7 .. please ensure you get your facts right before such accusations.

Vulgaris - 16 May 2015 - 00:49:54 - 217 of 283

“By all means view Motif as a punt --- it may well see 40p before it sees 1p”

END

Thank you m'lord .. case dismissed

[trotterstrading] 29/5/2015 10:39

AMP ticking up a little now, peeps just realising they own 44% of Motif as well as large stakes in 6 other exciting BioTech companies - with a Mcap of only £9m they are valued at a tiny fraction of the sum of its parts - huge upside potential.

[regandharry5] 29/5/2015 10:04

Perhaps they are taking some notice of the broker note...ie: 89p

[granada7] 29/5/2015 09:54

rodders

stop making things up...Vulgaris never called a top.

[onedayrodders] 29/5/2015 09:52

Very possibly .. or could be just the catching up has started against peers

Either way looking good for us.

And already beaten Vulgaris's 40p top he called.

;o)

[blueblood] 29/5/2015 09:40

Partner/grant funding on its way?

[topinfo] 29/5/2015 08:29

MTFB –Motif Bioscience


Broker buy note out on MTFB which is very conservative to say the least, £666 million sales per year in Iclaprim is 33 x current share price which is a measly £22 million. These are not pie in the sky numbers and in fact Motifs peers are valued as much as 20 x MTFB mkt cap already and they are no further advanced than MTFB so you can clearly see the upside here. This is game changing for MTFB, it really is,
By GEOFF FOSTER FOR THE DAILY MAIL
PUBLISHED: 22:05, 27 May 2015 | UPDATED: 16:49, 28 May 2015

A Northland Capital recommendation and 89p target price helped Motif Bio put on 2p to 33p. The broker says Motif’s late clinical-stage antibiotic, iclaprim, is set to fill a major market void. Having already tested on over 1,000 patients, iclaprim’s safety and efficacy is well supported. If approved, the drug could achieve more than £650m a year in sales.

[trotterstrading] 28/5/2015 19:17

Indeed G7 the market seems to have missed that AMP owns 44% of Motif amongst others, great opportunity for a bit of arbitrage. Surprised they didn't put out an RNS given their interest in Motif!

[granada7] 28/5/2015 17:36

if this continues to go up then AMPs holding here will be worth a bit too.

[small crow] 28/5/2015 17:30

Or partnering options leaking?

[onedayrodders] 28/5/2015 16:50

Looks like Vulgaris has been topping up

;o)

[talkingtrades] 28/5/2015 15:52

65Jack..please stop ramping this on the OPTI board.