Morse Share Discussion Threads

[wcjan26] 23/4/2008 12:07

yes, but city doesn't like rns like these without numbers.

[qs9] 23/4/2008 07:21

Thanks.

RNS today, looks like they are pretty well on track for the year IMO, with the net cash on the balance sheet, these look GV still IMO. Views?

[wcjan26] 21/4/2008 12:25

qs9- check out volume today. looks like some broker has been working a large block

[qs9] 18/4/2008 09:35

any views on share price fall? any new news?

[she-ra] 16/4/2008 16:24

wcjan26 - You have to wonder if something is being leaked.This company never seems to work in the interests of shareholders or else it wouldnt have dropped from a 2 year high of 140p.

[wcjan26] 16/4/2008 15:17

qs9 - see my post from 18th - it's all in the chart. weak volume today and big fall to retest the 'right shoulder' of the large inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the chart. looks ripe for a significant move higher to me, to 70p first stop

[qs9] 03/4/2008 21:10

up strongly in a weak market.....any views (from myself haha)??

[qs9] 14/3/2008 13:22

more bouncing....

[qs9] 11/3/2008 15:56

anyone think of a reason for the rise? Any rumours?

[wcjan26] 18/2/2008 09:34

that's a big purchase from the new chairman!

chart looking very good for a reversal here

[tole] 13/2/2008 22:18

Think Panmure issued a note which was missed - Believe they had already upgraded to Hold from sell as of 31st Jan with a 62p target - but was never publicised. Today they drop estimates and target price by 2p to 60p

Current covering brokers below - though cant see if KBC commented today, though they had a SELL rating on Morse as of last Friday. (note not updated today with any forecast changes)

Detailed Broker Forecasts 2008 2009
Broker Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS(p) DPS(p) Pre-tax(£) EPS(p) DPS(p)
Investec Securities 21-01-08 BUY 15.23 8.15 4.13 17.45 9.32 4.21
KBC Peel Hunt Ltd 08-02-08 SELL 14.00 7.12 4.10 16.85 8.57 4.20
Panmure Gordon 31-01-08 HOLD 12.80 6.31 4.20 14.10 7.75 4.30

[she-ra] 13/2/2008 21:18

I wonder if the performance of Morse is inversely related to PG price targets.So the better Morse do the more they lower their target price for the company?Im just waiting for the target price of 5p a share.They've downgraded their estimates but I read an earlier note where their estimates were lower than what they downgraded to today.Maybe someone can correct me.
These notes though seem to give the shares the jitters.Do any other brokers release notes on Morse because all I can find are numerous notes from just Panmure Gordon who talk about Morse more than seems neccessary?

[tole] 13/2/2008 20:16

Think they were already on HOLD rec - think they changed their stance earlier when they moved their target price from 80p to 62p - though not sure when that exactly was - sometime after 20/11 and today.

13-Feb-08 Panmure Gordon Hold 52.50p 62.00p 60.00p Reiteration
20-Nov-07 Panmure Gordon Sell 74.25p 90.00p 80.00p Reiteration

[qs9] 13/2/2008 17:14

Didn't they move up from sell to hold?

[tole] 13/2/2008 16:50

Morse "hold," target price reduced
7:06a.m. - Panmure Gordon & Co

LONDON, February 13 (newratings.com) – Analyst George O'Connor of Panmure Gordon maintains his "hold" rating on Morse Plc (MOR-GBX), while reducing his estimates for the company. The target price has been reduced from 62p to 60p.

In a research note published this morning, the analyst mentions that the company has posted mixed interim results, with weak performance by the business applications division and Europe and robust results for the management consulting and Infrastructure units. The appointment of Kevin Loosemore as Morse's chairman appears to be a favourable move, Panmure Gordon adds. The EPS estimates for 2008 and 2009 have been reduced from 6.3p to 6.08p and from 7.7p to 7.26p, respectively

[wcjan26] 13/2/2008 08:17

yes decent enough results - bit light on revenue, but managed to hit profit numbers, which is encouraging. good news on not being stuffed in the financials side of the business which is clearly why they have been marked down so far.

is it enough to break them from the downtrend? maybe. i think some more insider buyer and a high quality acquisition at the high end to show they are committed to their strategy

[qs9] 13/2/2008 07:29

£11m net cash, over £6m of OP in the half year. Puts Morse on under 6 times full year OP if you merely double the 1/2 year result and a single digit p/e multiple.

Looks cheap to me, but what do others think? What is the X-over valuation when compared to the potential take out price of NIS which had oodles of debt as well?

[qs9] 12/2/2008 20:03

Fingers Xd for tomorrow then....outlook will be key.

[wcjan26] 12/2/2008 17:52

up 7% day before earnings. looks promising.

[wcjan26] 11/2/2008 08:53

pappupops

looking at what is happening to other players in the same area, i would say they are a shoe-in for a take-over

as to whether that makes them a buy, i think you need to look at whether that means they have hit bottom yet. technically, the breakdown from their 2-year range would suggest that 40-45p is an ultimate bottom, though it may not dip that low

i think earnings are out this week. may be worth waiting for those first, though i tend to think they are so oversold and pricing in such bad news, that anything other than disastrous figures will take mor much higher.

the other thing to consider is that the recent fall has been on virtually no volume which suggests they are just drifting lower waiting news and may be extremely cheap because of it.

i am buying a little here and there

[pappupops] 08/2/2008 11:00

does anybody think these shares are abuy long term?

[wcjan26] 30/1/2008 08:46

ok, let me rephrase, perhaps the market is pricing in potential bad news based on weakness in sectors where mor gets its revenues (eg. financial services, capital markets)

what i think is the driver here is that by divesting monitise (drain or not) they have discarded recurring revenues to focus on the higher margin / potential growth professional services side (as yet unproven), just as the economy is moving against them. peer stocks have also been beaten to hell - i assume that this type of business is higher beta.

what i am interested in is that IF at results they meet expectations, will it validate their strategy and cause this to be a big snap-back

i need to look at the chart in more detail to try and pick a likely bottom, but this may well be buy

[wcjan26] 29/1/2008 19:57

ok qs9

this popped out on a screen of mine this morning. you're right it looks cheap but with earnings out in mid feb perhaps the market knows some bad news?

is the yield correct or is that based on before they divested part of the business last year?

[qs9] 20/1/2008 14:30

Market cap £74m, net cash of around £15m, profits reported underlying in Sept 07 was £12.2m.....EV multiple of 4.8 and yielding 7% at this price!

EPS forecast of 7.5 and 8.6 for next year.

So, it is not going bust with that net cash, it is profitable, decent newsflow and statements and yet pricing in armageddon..IMO obviously. REvenues of £257m...if it stays at these levels hopefully management will see sense and buy it back for a quid!