Morse Share Discussion Threads

[bluemarlin] 15/2/2005 10:51

just bought in. stock seems to low now.

[haribo1] 11/2/2005 09:34

Why are the MMs forcing this price down on so little volume. Last time I saw this pattern was just before a take over bid.

[downsize] 03/2/2005 15:19

Anyone have L2 on morse please ?

[downsize] 26/1/2005 14:33

On the other hand if I look with my eyes open this time, there is another theory that if taking into account the brokers forecasts have changed, the picture is as follows based on new estimates,

£452Mln Turnover with
£10 Mln Profit to end of June 05
Across 131mln shares in issue =
EPS of 7.6 with a
PER of 18 the share price = £1.36 or a
PER of 20 the share price = £1.52

[downsize] 26/1/2005 13:52

Ok so my novices theory of 19th Jan looks to be holding out so far (touch wood). One £900k trade drops the share price by 11p. A week later we have a buy of £450k and the price goes up appx 4p (shorter theory). I wonder if there will be another £450 trade in the next day or two which will bring MOR back on track.

Even at a reduced profit of £8mln (based on last weeks statment of £4mln in 1st 6 months and assuming next 6 months yields £4mln) = eps of 6.1p so the current share price is on a PER of 18 ! Good value me thinks but I still reckon on £1.44 by July at least if the brokers targets are met. They could equally be exceeded.

Oh and the HP revised terms of business must refer to the Approved Warranty delivery Partner status where the pass bar for partners went from 40% to 60% across all categories, These were Call Management, DBD (Diagnostic before despatch) Field Services, Workshop, Warranty Management, Logistics, Management Processes, Quality Performance and Cost Performance.

[the drewster] 19/1/2005 20:25

Downsize, it was DKW ... text of it was in the guardian

...

Among the small caps, the recent strong run of computer services group Morse continued. Up 7.5p on Wednesday, the shares gained a further 5p to 110p after Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein placed the stock back on its "buy" list.

The German broker reckons Morse shares were oversold following moves by computer maker Hewlett-Packard to change the terms of business with its wholesalers. The broker notes HP accounts for just 11% of sales at Morse operations and its shares now trade at a 20% discount to their peers.

...

Full article available at

[downsize] 19/1/2005 16:40

Yep - There they are !

[downsize] 19/1/2005 15:22

Hmmmm, Yes OK that makes sense, it must be shorters out temporarily then to open 4p down on low volume. The proof of the pudding will be a resonably size T trade or two at about 16:27pm today followed by a recovery in 3 days when they have to close their positions and buy back.
I'm Still in for the long term. SAP won't look after itself forever in regards to Diagonal.

[timtom2] 19/1/2005 11:11

Put it another way - the 11p drop was on relatively low volume. The recent run-up was on much higher volume including institutional buying. My money os on MOR appreciating reasonably in the medium term from here.

[buoycat] 19/1/2005 10:08

Downsize : if only it were that simple! MMs don't just react to buy and sell orders. They have to find a price where buyers and sellers meet. They are market makers after all. If they get it wrong the share price will soon shift till they get it right!

[downsize] 19/1/2005 09:37

TO QUALIFY MY STATEMENT - IN ORDER TO MOVE THE PRICE FROM 96P TO £1.19 TO APPX 10MLN SHARES. FOR IT TO DROP TO 107.7 WAS 90K. MM'S ARE HAVING A LAUGH AT OUR EXPENSE!!!

[downsize] 19/1/2005 09:36

VERY POSITIVE STATEMENT CONFIRMS THAT FIGURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN LINE WITH FORCASTS. SALES UP 16% (DIAGONAL WILL ADD £46MLN T/O)PROFITS UP 33%.
NICE, I'M IN FOR SOME MORE. THANK YOU EVERYONE WHO PANICKED AND SOLD.

[fud2] 19/1/2005 08:31

LONDON (AFX) - Morse PLC, a technology integrator, said sales for the first
half are up 16 pct and profits are up 33 pct on the prior year.
In a quarterly sales performance update, the group said sales for the second
quarter to Dec 31 2004 were 124 mln stg, up from 114 mln, resulting in sales for
the half year to Dec 31 of 217 mln, up from 187 mln.
It also said group operating profits for the first half will show progress
on the prior-year period and it would expect these to be around 4 mln stg before
exceptional items and goodwill amortisation, up from 3 mln in 2003.
The acquisition of Diagonal on Aug 27 2004 resulted in sales of 18 mln stg
in the six months to Dec 31 2004. The group said the integration of Diagonal is
progressing well with only one disappointment arising in the form of a loss
making pre-acquisition contract around which discussions are continuing with the
client.
Diagonal's contribution to group profits in the period since acquisition is
in line with expectations and the board said it expects Diagonal's contribution
to improve in the second half as integration continues.
The evolution of the group, whilst not complete, has continued to progress
well and, including Diagonal, the business realised 40 pct of turnover and 50
pct of gross profit from its services operations in the first half.
The trading environment in the UK is unchanged, with conditions still
"challenging and competitive". In continental Europe, trading continues to be
positive in Spain and Ireland and has stabilised in Germany and France.
In particular, the group said the French business is expected to reduce
significantly its losses for the six month period to Dec 31 2004.
The group said its cash position remains strong with a net cash balance of
approximately 39 mln stg at Dec 31 2004.
Morse's interim results will be announced on Feb 23.

[huwrayhenry] 18/1/2005 23:10

need chart to bust thru 120p
HH

[downsize] 18/1/2005 13:03

Nice One Drewster I wasn't aware of the broker announcement, where did you pick this info up ?. Positive statements like this will definately add to the confidence levels in this stock. We will also find out exactly what the situation is soon as Morse normally announce the first 6 months figures (f/y to 31/12)on 25th Feb each year however, the strength at the moment is a reflection of 2 things primarily.

1) The long term support level of 94p has the chartists on board for an easy 30-40% gain over 6 months and maybe much much more if targets are met/exceeded.

2) Possibly the powers that be have seen enough to back the idea that the 1st 6 months figures are already in line with or in excess of expectations and therefore are aware that the current valuation is cheap and have invested.

Certainly the purchase of Diagonal will add revenue streams and a whole new bunch of customers to cross sell into although I cannot find reports on previous margins anymore as they are no longer listed. Does anyone have the last report for Diagonal ?

As always IMHO DYOR etc etc.

[the drewster] 17/1/2005 20:18

It's all well and good having the estimates, the trick to a growing share price is meeting and exceeding those expectations and letting people know in advance that you're going to do so.
I bought on the back of the director buys late December at 97p, so sitting pretty just now. The buying activity is enough to keep me holding on just yet, and the fact that there was an announcement by one brokerage that they were (unjustly) trading at a discount of 20% to the sector.

[lolomimi] 17/1/2005 10:13

Big buys this am

[downsize] 14/1/2005 14:28

There has been more than enough strength in Morse of late to support AXA reducing its interest (2.6mln) and long may it continue.

A quick reccy of broker forecasts of £9,420,000 profit to year end of June 2005 and eps_basic at 7.20p puts this share at no less than £1.44. To June 2006 its £1.80 and to June 2007 its £2.20.

Only fly in the ointment (temporary) is Sun just posted slightly lower than projected performance on $2.89 Bln T/O (Target $2.93Bln). This is no problem to Morse as Sun is only part of what they do.

I'm in and i'm staying in........... :-)

[timtom2] 11/1/2005 16:45

Looked like the non beneficial interests have decreased but not Pru's own holding. Have a I read it correctly ??

[day_dreamer] 11/1/2005 15:49

On the 29th Dec they announce they have 8.9mil and today
they announce they have 6.3mil TimTom2, looks like they
have took advantage of the jump in price to lower their holding.
Nothing wrong with that, decided to bank profits, still long
on these via a spread bet at 97p so happy to ride that one longer term.

Gravy

[timtom2] 11/1/2005 15:46

dd - How do you know it's a sell? We have sells mid 90's when it was someone picking-up the stock - someone had to sell.

[day_dreamer] 11/1/2005 15:34

Going to close out my 4K !

Institution selling steadily, must be why price
is not moving anymore.

Gravy

[day_dreamer] 11/1/2005 10:34

L2 4 bid 1 offer..next offer 117p.

Trade slowing a bit...spread probably not helping.

Online quotes 111.3-114.45 for 25k both ways.

Gravy

[day_dreamer] 10/1/2005 18:43

Buyers all over this one again today.

Surprised no mm move up higher than 110p bid but hopefully
that will happen tomorrow.

Gravy

[day_dreamer] 10/1/2005 09:45

Online quotes still good at 111p-114.45 for 50k v 25k.

Gravy