Mony Share Discussion Threads

[jawpaw] 02/7/2008 20:17

Isis

what were saying about kmag and mambo, they called this right didn't thet from 180p? and their price target was 60p. :)


As you may not be aware the underwriter punt this an over inflated price, maybe 3 time fari value, and few weeks afterwards bid rumour. The underwriter gets big commision the higher they do the floating


I would even say 50p is about right

[masurenguy] 01/7/2008 10:15

"dubwise - 1 Jul'08 - 10:00 - 370 of 371: And you are a loser - quite literally if you've put any money into this donkey"

Just saw the above post. As it happens I don't have a position here YET but certainly will have in the future because there is a very compelling case. Currently valuation is an issue on an historic basis, especially in the current climate, but if they achieve their forecasts then this will be a real money spinner in the longer term.

You are just a mindless deramper dubwise - unlike scburbs you have not, and probably cannot, construct an intelligent bear case. You are just a "ya ya sucks - price falling - won't put my money into this donkey - you're a loser" type of mindless deramper and you just ridicule yourself with such moronic posts.

[isis] 01/7/2008 10:09

Everything is down - these are a constituent of the FTSE 250 currently down 170 points.
This is a full blown bear market - there is little point in arguing with people who claim to be short as fundamentals are out of the window for now.

[masurenguy] 01/7/2008 10:06

Consistent selling is continuing to move the price down.

I'm interested to see that we at least have an intelligent shorter here who has a perfectly valid and defensible view to substantiate his bearish position on the stock. This makes a refreshing change to some of the utterly mindless and bitter derampers one often encounters on other threads. Glad to see you here scburbs since it is always interesting to be able to review and consider the contrarian case.

The real issue is how much the money vertical (currently 50% of sales) is being affected by the property downturn and the mortgage famine. There will be a growing tendency for people seeking financial services to search online and as the market leader, with plenty of cash to sustain them, MONY is in a very strong position to capitalise on this. I also like the clarity and ease of navigation on their site and their automated follow up processes when you've used them to search for prices or quotes. I've also used Confused.com in the past and they are not in MONY's league as a competitive site. Wheter people like Confused or GoCompare will negatively impact margins going forward remains to be seem but they have to spend more on advertising to generate traffic to their sites than does MONY as the established market leader in what is still a growing market sector.

I'm still looking for an entry point here so I currently have no position. However I have every confidence in MONY as a long term prospect and I will invest here - at the moment it is just a matter of timing !

[dubwise] 01/7/2008 10:00

Masurenguy - 27 Jun'08 - 11:17 - 363 of 369


"dubwise - 27 Jun'08 - 361: Ok you got me there it must be a cracking investment oppurtunity. Strange then that I consistently make money going short this one"

RLMAO - of course you're short - very strange that you didn't mention that in your post #347 which you made nearly 2 weeks ago !

You're a big phoney as well as being an even bigger dipstick !

And you are a loser - quite literally if you've put any money into this donkey - LOL!!!

[scburbs] 27/6/2008 14:28

Isis,

As a shorter I will clarify my view for you.

I believe that MONY's money vertical is struggling and will continue to struggle.

I believe that MONY's insurance vertical is performing well, but growth is starting to slow (as flagged in the statement by the shift in wording) and competition is rife with the market leader (Confused.com) struggling and increasing marketing spend. In addition there are many new entrants to this market. Therefore, I think growth in this vertical may be coming to an end and margin pressure will increase.

The other verticals are too small to make much of a difference at the moment, but growth rates are slowing in both.

[isis] 27/6/2008 13:47

I feel the share price is being kept down due to a short position rather then anything fundamental. The belief by shorters is that if Mortgages are suffering then so must Mony's business.
The trading update yesterday actually proves that isn't the case as they have diverted resources to other areas which are doing well. This shows what a great business model it is.

[isis] 27/6/2008 13:24

masurenguy - well put. I would also add that leading price comparison sites have been selling upto 10X turnover in the past - this would be valued at £2billion on that ratio.
We are sure in a bear market and they are doing well to maintain expectations which were forecast before the economic slowdown.

The chart actually follows the FTSE250 quite well.

[masurenguy] 27/6/2008 13:11

This is a well funded, FTSE 250 listed company, who are market leaders in the internet comparative service shopping sector. Like many recent IPO's they came to market at a very high premium price in a more positive economic climate.

The company has subsequently published its maiden set of results and given a further trading update. This reaffirms that they expect to achieve market expectations and that overall growth so far this year is still in excess of 25%.

What are these expectations ? Average broker and analyst consensus is for an eps of 8.6p this year and 10.9p next year. Providing that is achieved (and the company is currently confident that it will) then at 98p it is trading at a prospective PE of 9.

Price comparison sites should continue to prosper even in any economic downturn as more consumers seek opportunities to reduce financial, insurance, utility and travel costs and also make greater use of online facilities to achieve these objectives. As market leader Moneysupermarkets is in a much stronger position than niche competitors such as Confused.com or Gocompare.com.

The company certainly looked to be overvalued at the IPO price of 170p but is now approaching good value at under £1.

[isis] 27/6/2008 12:22

jawpaws - looks like a double bottom or could be those 2 rsoles you just mentioned!

[jawpaw] 27/6/2008 12:13

Hi Isis


Looks we are going sub 80p next. Mambo, Kmag was right, far too overvalued, under-writer sold this to mugs at extortionate price.

[masurenguy] 27/6/2008 11:17

"dubwise - 27 Jun'08 - 361: Ok you got me there it must be a cracking investment oppurtunity. Strange then that I consistently make money going short this one"

RLMAO - of course you're short - very strange that you didn't mention that in your post #347 which you made nearly 2 weeks ago !

You're a big phoney as well as being an even bigger dipstick !

[isis] 27/6/2008 10:43

I think people associate it too much with the Mortgage part of the business. As has been proven with the update they concentrate on other areas when another part is not performing so well.
If you look at the above chart they are in-line with their figures, but we are in a bear market and in-line seems to be construed as bad.

[dubwise] 27/6/2008 10:40

Masurenguy - 27 Jun'08 - 00:19 - 348 of 359


"dubwise - 14 Jun'08 - 347 of 347: Mortgage deals website. Hmm don't think i'll be putting my retirement money into this one."
...........................................................................

What a dipstick - how stupid can you be ? Mortgage and Loans are only one component of this multi-faceted and diversified service.

Ok you got me there it must be a cracking investment oppurtunity

Strange then that I consistently make money going short this one...

[isis] 27/6/2008 10:36

Trading Statement was in-line with turnover topping £100m.
Two new verticals in second half and margins of 30%+ maintained - so what's your problem?

[scburbs] 27/6/2008 10:33

Isis,

No I don't (which I why I am short!), but it seems you need me to reiterate that the fall yesterday was not solely down to the market! MONY was topping the fallers board on the same day as releasing a trading statment and fell much more sharply than the market as a whole.

[isis] 27/6/2008 10:28

scrubs - just look at the market 147 down yesterday and touching 2005 lows.
I'm sure you don't need explaining about the current climate do you really?

[isis] 27/6/2008 10:26

I don't think good updates or figures will make a lot of difference in this market anyway - this is a real Bear market and you can short just about anything until sentiment changes and we have some optomistic data.

[scburbs] 27/6/2008 10:26

Morning Isis,

Do you really think you can put the drop all down to the bear market when a trading statement sends the shares down 10.5%? Yes the market was down a lot yesterday, but I think you will find MONY towards the upper end of the losers!

isis - 27 Jun'08 - 10:20 - 352 of 355

scrubs - Insurance up 50%, Travel up 45% and Home up 75%.
Their business model allows them to switch to the growth areas - it was obvious with 75% mortgage products down that area would be down.
Competitors are spending a lot more on advertising, but MoneySupermarket still gaining market share and will launch two new verticals in the second half.
Drop all down to this bear market - everything is down barring Oilers/miners.

[scburbs] 27/6/2008 10:22

Whilst the other two are pretty small divisions they are both seeing growth rates tailing off. Given these are combined Q1 and Q2 growth rates they imply significantly lower growth in Q2 (i.e. c. 40% and 50% for Travel and Homes respectively).

Travel was in excess of 50% ahead, now in the region of 45%.

Homes was more than 100% ahead, now in the region of 75%.

[scburbs] 27/6/2008 10:20

Actually when I put the two sentences next to each other it doesn't look subtle at all. Growth was higher than 50% and is now in the region of 50% or code word for nearly 50%.

[isis] 27/6/2008 10:20

scrubs - Insurance up 50%, Travel up 45% and Home up 75%.
Their business model allows them to switch to the growth areas - it was obvious with 75% mortgage products down that area would be down.
Competitors are spending a lot more on advertising, but MoneySupermarket still gaining market share and will launch two new verticals in the second half.
Drop all down to this bear market - everything is down barring Oilers/miners.

[scburbs] 27/6/2008 10:19

IMV, Insurance continued to perform well in Q2, but I read the announcement as subtly indicating a slowdown in growth.

On 22 April:

"The Insurance vertical has maintained the momentum seen in the second half of
2007. Revenue has grown in excess of 50% over the first quarter last year with
each of the major channels performing well."

On 26 June:

"Revenues in the Insurance vertical are expected to be in the region of 50% ahead of the first half last year"

[scburbs] 27/6/2008 10:15

Does an e-commerce play in a market with very limited barriers to entry deserve a rating above 12? Particularly in the current market when heavily exposed to the financial sector.

Who do we see entering these markets, Tesco, Google etc, i.e. big big brand names. The desire of these players to enter the market indicates that margins are good, but where margins are good and barriers low then the medium term impact is clear.

With the insurance vertical being extremely competitive the 50% growth is likely to be about to end. If they could continue this growth then yes very good value, but given the competition this looks very unlikely.

Money vertical down 13% in Q2 per The Times, ouch!