Molecular Energies Share Discussion Threads

[technohead] 08/3/2024 14:33

Atome starts to rise - whilst we continue to sink - don't even know why I bother to still look.

[all in eol] 07/3/2024 21:26

Amid the changing landscape of the global energy sector, Paraguay emerges as a region that presents opportunities for investors and leaders in the oil and hydrocarbon industry. With vast potential in various energy sources, the country is preparing to stand out at the upcoming 16th IGEF International Gas and Energy Forum, which will take place from April 3 to 5 at the Sheraton Asunción Hotel.
The Vice Minister of Mines and Energy, Mauricio Bejarano , spoke with Surtidores Latam and anticipated that this event will be “a possibility to show the potential that exists in the different energy sectors of our country ,” he highlighted.
In this way, Paraguay will become the epicenter to debate relevant topics such as the decarbonization of the hydrocarbon industry in the energy transition , the role of mixed or hybrid energy scenarios and security, the reuse of natural gas infrastructure for production of hydrogen , the role of fuels and others.
In this sense, with ambitious plans in the hydrocarbon sector, Paraguay seeks to attract investments in exploration and prospecting. Bejarano stressed the intention to look for partners and concessionaires to promote exploratory activity. In line with this, the official mentioned that the construction of a gas pipeline in the Central Chaco is being proposed, not only for the transportation of Argentine gas to the Brazilian market, but as a key infrastructure for future commercial discoveries. «We are committed to strengthening our hydrocarbon sector by actively seeking investments and strategic partnerships. Our objective is to boost upstream exploration and prospecting, as well as develop crucial infrastructure,” he said.



On the other hand, the vice minister highlighted that investment in electricity generation is also at the center of Paraguayan strategies. The tender for a 100-megawatt solar photovoltaic park in Chaco Central is planned, with the aim of increasing the penetration of solar energy in the national interconnected system.
"We are convinced that Paraguay has significant potential and we are determined to make the most of it for the benefit of our country and its energy development," he concluded.

[piperpeter] 07/3/2024 15:21

I don't actually do forecasts, masergt, but one would assume it would be higher than the current lowly level. Though currently, the share price would need to be a little over 29p to about equal its 18.8% holding in ATOM. So, not only is this asset not fully priced into MEN's share price, no other Company held assets could possibly be included in MEN's current share price.

Cavendish haven't published a target share price for some time now, so it will be interesting to read their opinion when we have more meat on the bones re the IPO and spin-out of Green House Capital Group, and who ends up owning a slice of it, if you know what I mean.

Which shouldn't be too far away now, surely?

Currently there are 25 million Green House Capital Group shares allotted, so with MEN owning 75% of GHC, MEN's shareholders must currently collectively own 18,750,000 of the shares.

Approximately 1.5 shares per one MEN share? 18,750,000 / 12,378,197 = 1.514

Pp.

[rizzzla] 06/3/2024 17:16

🍷 🍷 🍷

[chris cat] 06/3/2024 16:39

RG1....

Look back over this thread for 15 years and you will see many similar calculations, yet the share price keeps falling to all time lows

[researchguru1] 06/3/2024 16:07

FROM LSE BB:


For those interested, here’s an updated valuation of the company:

• Allowing for routine operational expenditure, cash balance as of the 01 March 2024 was approximately £1.4m. This is equivalent to 11p of the current share price of 25p.

• Cash balance of £1.4m + current value of the company’s 18.8% stake in Atome Energy (£3.7m) is £5.1m. This is equivalent to 41p per share.

• Cash balance + 18.8% stake in Atome Energy + upcoming cash proceeds (of £1.25m) from President Petroleum is £6.3m. This is equivalent to 51p per share.

• Cash balance + 18.8% stake in Atome Energy + upcoming PP cash proceeds + lowest estimated value (£7.5m) of the company’s 75% stake in Green House Capital is £13.8m. This is equivalent to 111p per share.


IMPORTANT POINTS TO NOTE ON VALUATION:

1. The company’s current cash balance of £1.4m is comprised of $1.28m (£1.09m) from President Petroleum, £550,000 net proceeds from the recently oversubscribed placing at 35p, and circa £115,000 cash carryover pre-placing. It then assumes a cash consumption of £215,000 since the placing. So it’s a pretty pessimistic assumption. The real number (cash balance) could be higher.

2. The company’s 18.8% stake in Atome Energy is currently valued at £3.7m. However, this figure is subject to change based on Atome’s prevailing share price.

3. The upcoming cash proceeds from President Petroleum (PP) of £1.2m assumes cash receipts for the months of March, April, May, and June only at circa £320,000 per month. This estimation is at the lower end. Thus, monthly receipts could be materially higher than this.

4. The estimated valuation of the company’s 75% stake in Green House Capital (GHC) assumes an IPO valuation of £10m. This, for the record, and considering the breakthrough technologies and cash generative businesses in GHC’s portfolio, is highly conservative. Thus, I strongly believe the final valuation will be significantly higher than this. Also, and probably the most important aspect of all is that, the BOD might decide to cash-in a proportion of the company’s 75% stake. And if that happens, the company could be in receipt of a sizeable amount of money that could be redistributed to shareholders in a liquidity event. The AIM IPO is still on track for March 2024!

5. Now, absent from the above is the company’s 50% interest in the Pirity Concession (Paraguay) with OPIC, ultimately owned by CPC, the multibillion-dollar state energy company of Taiwan. The exploration licence attached to the concession had been extended by one year to September 2024. So MEN has potentially the option of selling it’s 50% interest to CPC who might want to undertake further drilling operations. After all, why would the drilling rig be retained on site pending further decision by the participants?

6. Also absent from the previous post is the current valuation of the company’s property and plant in Paraguay where it was the operator.

7. Finally, there’s something to be said, and value applied, when you have a company with a credible institutional shareholder base (Schroders, Trafigura, Miton, and Michinoko), NO DEBT, and a BOD with serious skin in the game.

HUGELY UNDERVALUED!

AIMHO.

.

[masergt] 06/3/2024 15:35

Pp. Even "less than zero" would be incorrect in your context. It's simply zero. Zero is zero; it needs no qualifier, no puffing, none of your spin. I'm not having a pop. I'm equally frustrated with the share price and agree with your calcs but let's stick to known facts. The market, for whatever reason, attaches no value to MEN's holdings in these companies. And therein lies the question. Why not? I thought markets thrived on speculation.

So do you have an share price forecast for end Q1 and end Q2?

[piperpeter] 05/3/2024 14:16

All of MEN's assets in the previous post are now market valued at GBP 2.9 million.

Pp.


EDIT;

MEN's market cap currently GBP 2.84 million.
MEN's 18.8% shareholding in ATOM is currently worth GBP 3.68 million.

[brasso3] 05/3/2024 08:50

Chris

The Pied Piper has spent more than 10 years on here being elastic with the truth and creating his fantasy scenarios. Why would you expect him to stop now?

[chris cat] 05/3/2024 08:28

PP...you've done it again on the other thread

"The Company has cash; GBP1.28 million has been received from the former Argentine asset to date, average US$320k per month, with a further (approx.) US$12 million to come. Add this to the recent money raised."

The remaining $12m interco loan has a broadly equal liability. I'd hazard a guess that PL will only pay over enough cash to net off the loans.

[piperpeter] 04/3/2024 22:32

Sorry if you don't understand minus zero, masergt, maybe less than zero would be easier for you.

But where does anyone start with working out a realistic valuation?

We know the market cap right now is GBP 3 million. Why is it GBP 3 million? Why is it not 7 million, 15 million, 60 million or more?

The way I see it is that we take the current assets and compare to the market valuation...

The Company's 18.8% holding in ATOM is easily calculated, at any time. That single asset alone currently outstrips the entire market valuation of MEN by some considerable amount, which is not logical. It's like knowing you have a twenty pound note in your pocket, and yet when you want to spend it, it's only worth fifteen quid. Not logical.

Now, on top of ATOM we have the following assets....

Green House Capital Group Plc, consisting of, at least, Aton 6 Plc, Hyso Limited, Dual Fuel Limited and G Mobility Limited. The very informative Presentation today shows the obvious value associated to each of these companies, and quite clearly states that revenue generation has begun and will be increasing in the very near term.

We have a 50% interest in the Pirity concession which, aside to the current drill, has great potential in the field of unconventional gas, 20 Tcf gas in place, according to an earlier Company RNS. Unknown value, but considerably higher than zero. Don't forget, there is also a technical oil/gas discovery at the greater Lapacho prospect, drilled in 2014.

The Company has cash; GBP1.28 million has been received from the former Argentine asset to date, average US$320k per month, with a further (approx.) US$12 million to come. Add this to the recent money raised (GBP650k less expenses).

Then there is Molecular Aviation Limited and Sustainable Aviation Fuel production, 100% owned. For all we know, this may turn out to be on the scale of what ATOM is achieving with calcium ammonium nitrate production.

There is another US$2 million payment to be received, in September, from the disposal of the Argentine asset, plus potentially a further 20% of free cash flow generated from Argentina up to US$25 million, over a five year period.

All of the above for GBP 3 million?

Maybe the market has simply not noticed. Yet.

Pp.

[masergt] 04/3/2024 18:56

OK, we've heard you Pp. But what is "minus zero"? They didn't cover that at my school.

I think we all (except maybe Brasso?) accept that, on paper, MEN's NPV and share price is out of kilter with the apparent sum of its parts and has been for some time. So what's the catch? Where's the hidden snurgly? What or who has caused a near total wipe out of my investment over the last ten years? What or who has caused an 80% drop over the last six months? That's some serious value destruction.

Where have our assets gone? Where have our profits gone? What is the true and near term realiseable financial position of MEN and if PL is such a great businessman why are we in this mess? With everything you say is about to happen, let's hear your share price forecast for, say, the end of Q1 and the end of Q2.

[all in eol] 04/3/2024 14:49

Out of this mornings trade. Too good an opportunity not to lock in a bit of profit.
Still got Fridays at the moment.
Still think it’s upward from here but with past history….

[chris cat] 04/3/2024 13:05

PP - Per your comments on the other thread for US$40m in cash to come......have you netted off the loan due back to PL? or just ignored it?
Any thoughts on why ATOME keeps dropping, more dilution in the Pipeline or just out of favour?

[piperpeter] 04/3/2024 11:11

Currently, MEN's share price would have to be 30.5 pence to make its own market cap equal to its 18.8% share holding in ATOM.

Everything else in MEN's portfolio is valued at minus zero!

Pp.

[piperpeter] 04/3/2024 09:20

Coming to AIM, Q1 2024.

Pp.

[piperpeter] 04/3/2024 09:19

Green House Capital Group Plc.

Pp.

[piperpeter] 04/3/2024 09:15

Pipeline of further near-term opportunities.

Pp.

[piperpeter] 04/3/2024 09:06

First CO2 Removal Credits sales Q1 2024.

Pp.

[piperpeter] 04/3/2024 09:02

Spin-out and IPO.

Pp.

[piperpeter] 04/3/2024 08:56

Dividend distribution after three years.

Pp.

[piperpeter] 04/3/2024 08:49

Global roll-out; South America, followed by Europe and USA.

Pp.

[piperpeter] 04/3/2024 08:41

Multi-year contracts with lead customers, providing consistent cash flow.

Pp.