Mj Gleeson Share Discussion Threads

[battlebus2] 02/2/2012 19:14

Yes i'm expecting a decent rise till results. Don't hold anything like that Des around 20k but plenty of time to add.

[deswalker] 02/2/2012 19:09

Yes. I nearly added more today but missed the narrow spread. As you say, results in three weeks or so.

I still think this is the cheapest asset share I can find. Consequently I own 77k at just below 110p after netting off the special divi. I think it's worth close to 200p when one includes the unrecognised tax losses.

[battlebus2] 02/2/2012 18:58

Added today while the price dropped a little, results in a few weeks Des :-)

[battlebus2] 12/12/2011 08:03

Enjoy those holidays Des heading on mine next week. Another tick up this morning :)

[deswalker] 12/12/2011 07:44

Hi bb,

This share will remain a slow burner whilst management steadily line up the ducks for a takeover, but it looks a very compelling investment to me. I wasn't at the AGM as I'm away on hols.

Des

[battlebus2] 09/12/2011 17:58

I believe you are right Des. Decent AGM statement today did anyone attend? Visitor numbers are up so sales should follow all good imv.

[deswalker] 22/11/2011 17:08

Over the weekend I did some work on the IMS and the 2011 Annual Report. The result of these musings is that I've increased my position here. Observations that have caused this increase in confidence are ...

- The IMS confirms that £7.5m has been received for the 3 PFI projects and that they hope to sell the last one this year.
- Page 56 of the AR confirms that they received a further £4.245m in cash from their biggest housebuilding customer on the day after the Balance Sheet date thus greatly reducing their credit risk and increasing their cash balance.
- The IMS showed big progress with the Strategic Land division with three substantial sites on the verge of getting planning permission (subject to s106 agreements) and then sold on before the financial year end.
- Page 61 of the AR confirms that they have unused tax losses of £85.575m not shown on the Balance Sheet but carried forward indefinitely. These must be worth quite a bit to any acquiror on top of the reported NTAV.
- The expansion of their land bank using cash balances at a time when debt financing is very tough to find, competition weak and hence bargains to be had.
- The government's support for the housing market announced this week.

IMO excluding the future divestments and land purchases, adjusting downwards for the dividend and netting off the cash balance from both the market cap and the NTAV one is currently able to buy essentially £1 of land (valued at the lower of cost and net realisable value so there is some possible upside there too) for a fair bit less than 50p. I challenge anyone to find any cheaper asset play in this sector, and this ignores the unused tax losses and the clear strategy to simplify and ready the company for a trade sale in the next few years.

I honestly can't see any asset play cheaper than this on the market but would appreciate any thoughts on what I might be missing.

Des

[deswalker] 19/11/2011 09:54

Just catching up here bb.

The IMS reads well IMO.

Pleased to see the 3 PFI sells have gone through and that they hope to sell the other one this year and wind that division down.

The perfomance of the Strategic Land division looks to be excellent and ignoring the timing issue around housing association purchases which will have to come through in due course to increase their stocks the housebuilding side is going well too.

They are clearly gearing up their land bank at a time when housing is in very short supply, mortgage finance is improving and with the possibility of some form of government mortgage guarantee scheme to be announced next week.

All looks to be very much on track for IMO a sale of the company to a major on a two year view with divis in the meantime.

Des

[battlebus2] 18/11/2011 07:51

IMS out Des, makes fair reading imv.

[deswalker] 17/11/2011 17:07

The IMS is due within the next week.

[battlebus2] 17/11/2011 16:57

Beats most other shares.

[retsius] 17/11/2011 16:32

Nice rise today---- 1p

[battlebus2] 09/11/2011 18:56

Very true Des. Plenty of down days to come by the look of it. Added a few more before x divi.

[retsius] 09/11/2011 16:31

Des
Thanks

[deswalker] 09/11/2011 15:35

xd next wed

[retsius] 09/11/2011 15:28

Des
When does it go xd? Website says 18/11, but that must mean next wed.?

[deswalker] 09/11/2011 13:57

It is the single share in my portfolio that I am most confident about. It is miles too cheap and stays that way because it is too illiquid for the big guys to get involved but that offers opportunities for us smaller guys. Perhaps the buying is to secure the special divi available until next week.

In its favour it has a big discount to NTAV, net-cash, a vastly increased land bank at what appears to be the bottom of the cycle, a propensity for special dividends, a very smart activist investor holding just under 30% who has said it is worth 180p, a management who keep buying but must have one eye on retirement, and finally a much simplified business model following divestments of subsidiaries which is based around buying land and either selling it or building it out depending on which offers the best return.

What's not to like :o) It can be frustrating when the market is going up and nobody cares. Then you feel like you're missing out. But I try and be an absolute return value investor and on the market down days one sees why one holds stuff like this.

[retsius] 09/11/2011 13:39

Whats this? 2p rise --best for a year--chart looks good.What do think Des?

[retsius] 21/10/2011 21:51

Yes BTB first rise in months.

[battlebus2] 21/10/2011 18:26

Yes i know but dare i say it things are starting to improve....

[deswalker] 21/10/2011 08:51

It looks like the market is getting a little more interested in GLE. The special dividend is available for another few weeks which might have something to do with it, also the much bigger land bank at lower prices without using debt.

However, I also wonder if the bagging of GPG's 6.5% stake by NAS at little over a quid has released an overhang and also whether NAS may now be starting to work on some form of corporate action, most likely as a seller but just perhaps as a buyer too.

This share is clearly worth 150p just to bring it in line with others in the sector. Add on a takeover premium to get it up to NTAV and for an extra £20 mill one of the big housebuilders gets the entire portfolio in one go without the time and effort of trying to piece something similar together themselves.

The register is so tight that a deal could be stitched up with the minimum of effort and execution risk.

I wish I could sleep as easily with some of the other stuff in my portfolio.

[battlebus2] 21/10/2011 08:18

Little tick up of late maybe we are going north?

[deswalker] 29/9/2011 20:08

Hi battlebus - welcome on board.

I am also a big fan of Chris Mills and hold quite a few NAS in addition to investee companies GLE and CMX. He is not infallible as events at ASTO have shown (although he's still working on the situation there) but he seems to get more right than wrong.

Des

[battlebus2] 29/9/2011 19:53

Bought a few today Des and no i'm not a stalker lol. I have been a big fan of NAV and Blackrock and follow quite a lot of their investments mostly to handsome profits so lets hope for some value enhancing here.

[deswalker] 29/9/2011 19:18

RNS confirmation today that it was Guiness Peat who sold as expected.