Mitchells & Butlers Share Discussion Threads

[flackwell-raineri] 16/10/2003 19:18

Tainanmike - Couldn't agree more having witnessed similar events at Securicor. However, post dividend this share made quick moves north.

I therefore hope my timescale estimates are right rather than yours.

[tainanmike] 16/10/2003 10:10

Larry

Investors putting big money into a stock don't want to have approximately 1/3 of it thrown back at them a couple of months later, they don't want their stock to drop out of the FTSE 100 only weeks after buying it, and they don't want to get involved in the uncertainty that these events create.

So buy now (while all the big boys fret over these "problems") and wait until next year, when these clouds will have cleared and the positives will come to the fore (e.g. prospect of greatly improved EPS, strong balance sheet, healthy dividend well covered by earnings, cash generative business, bid speculation ...).

Mike

[neilavery] 15/10/2003 16:03

220p seems to be quite a strong support level, which it bounced off yesterday. Hopefully we will see a move upwards from this point.

[larry the lamb 2] 15/10/2003 11:28

when do you reckon the best time to buy is,

before or after the capital restructuring?




baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa-larry

[bigboyo] 13/10/2003 14:09

the weak price is primarily due to funds exiting mab because the capital reduction will take mab outta the top 100 and into the ftse 250

ftse 100 trackers need therefore to dump the shares hence the overhang

most reports point to a fair value in excess of 280p so there seems considerable upside potential once the capital restructuring is completed

all imho dyor and all other caveats

[ashtongray] 11/10/2003 22:02

Mike

Thanks for a sensible summary of the MAB situation.

[tainanmike] 11/10/2003 19:02

christon

Yes. But the dividend payout will be a non-event - see post 12 [EDIT: & 22]

[christon] 10/10/2003 18:04

So would people who buy now be eligble for special dividend?

[tainanmike] 10/10/2003 17:31

Thanks for the info. Francis. I assume that's FTSE-tracker, so it would seem to be my reason 3. Maybe they (correctly) anticipated share-price strength on the announcement and were ready to sell into it. If so, that means the share-price has been pushed down by temporary, acute selling pressure and holders can look forward to an equally sharp rebound next week as other investors identify value. That's the theory I'm working with anyway! ;)

Mike

[francisafac] 10/10/2003 16:25

mike
sorry seen your post now thanks
times states today tracker fund selling is causing fall

[tainanmike] 10/10/2003 14:44

toby
I'm not surprised by that valuation (290p). Current EPS forecasts (18p for the current year) will increase once the share cancellation is complete, and the cash they're realising puts them in a strong financial position. The dividend isn't bad, either, at 8.4p

To add to that, for anyone interested in holding for 1 or 2 years, some bid speculation seems assured, and a successful bid at a good premium a distinct possibility. Both The Times and The Mail have said exactly this over the last two months. In fact, MAB have already refused a bid approach - just before they were created from SXC in March 2003 a 2.8bn (376p-a-share) bid was refused!

I'm struggling to find any reason why they should have tanked since the divi announcement. Possible (1): big holders were disappointed with something in the announcement e.g. that some of the cash would go to paying pension fund deficit? Possible (2): big holders don't want to pay CGT on the hefty 68p dividend they're being forced into taking? Possible (3): giving away 68/230 of the company's value could knock them out of the FTSE, and big holders are unhappy? I'm clutching at straws here!!! Whatever the reason, I can't believe the ferocity of the fall, and am sitting tight with my holding.

Francis,
Come on, at least read the last few posts before you ask a question!

[taylorag] 10/10/2003 12:08

Don't believe it's in the share price - but then article 12 above would indicate otherwise.

[francisafac] 10/10/2003 10:41

is the 68p divi already in share price or will it drop 68p on divi issue.anyone know.

[toby tots] 10/10/2003 09:40

In today's Times, TEMPUS says buy. Shares worth 290p !!
Any comments?

[greenday] 09/10/2003 17:37

Mike & Phillis

thanks for your response, i will monitor to see outcome

[tainanmike] 09/10/2003 12:03

Greenday (and anyone else thinking of buying "for the special": DON'T.

MAB are about to "securitize" their pubs. As I understand it, this means they're swapping the titles to the pubs (i.e. claim to ownership) for 1.9bn in cash (but I may be wrong: I'm no expert).
Some of this they are giving away as a secial divi. BUT at the same time, they will take the equivalent value in shares from you. Immediate benefit to you - absolutely none! There will therefore be no rise and fall in the share price around the dividend payout (SCR recently did exactly the same thing as MAB are proposing. Their shares drifted lower towards the dividend payout, but have since rallied strongly).
They (MAB) will subsequently cancel the shares, which will boost "per share" figures such as EPS. Also, they're using the remainder of the cash to make themselves a little "fitter". Probably, then a good bet over the next 12 months, but no fireworks around the divi.

Oh, by the way, time of departure for the boat has not even been set yet!

Mike.

[phillis] 09/10/2003 11:37

This is an intention to return funds subject to successful securitisation. Wait for news on completion of this

[greenday] 09/10/2003 07:39

when do you have to be on the registar to get your special divi , has that boat sailed

[neilavery] 03/10/2003 14:29

If we break through the down trend at about 240p, I think we'll be well on the up. In other respects, I totally agree with you Larry

[larry the lamb 2] 03/10/2003 06:46

cracking day yesterday,in line with the general market,
hoping for a dip today as an oppoetunity to top up,
although this is in a mature industry i think this is an exciting short/medium term play with the prospect of dividend/buyback and consolidation/takeover opportunities.
Its never going to be a 10 bagger,but then again it doesn't pose the potential risks of such shares.The down side is limited and IMHO this type of share represents a better bet than having your money tied up in a building society.
Dyor etc....




baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa-larry

[manojranaweera] 03/10/2003 00:47

Onehanded, How did you arrive at 300 value?
Cheers, Manoj

[onehanded] 02/10/2003 18:58

IT has saved 12 million from cutting its capex and has been disposing of property. £4OO million from refinacing looks more like 450 million. Looking at the available stock any buyback programme would be approx 20% and leave over 50P divi as well. DYOR and in IMHO. Good day , may well rejoin uptreand soon.

As for £3 value, true value £3 plus bid value. This is a conservative value as it still puts it below other par companies. Looking at the portfolio I would put it's real bid target £3.20p but thats IMHO

[onehanded] 02/10/2003 18:58

If you wait till S&N sales is over, as today, people are getting in with a veiw for a postion.

[onehanded] 02/10/2003 18:52

IT has saved 12 million from cutting its capex and has been disposing of property. £4OO million from refinacing looks more like 450 million. Looking at the available stock any buyback programme would be approx 20% and leave over 50P divi as well. DYOR and in IMHO. Good day , may well rejoin uptreand soon.