Mitchells & Butlers Share Discussion Threads

[0800] 05/7/2004 17:18

One senior manager cashed in some of their options today?............interesting!

[toby tots] 24/5/2004 17:14

Mike
Thanks for that. I feel I may move on to greener pastures.....if I can find any!

[tainanmike] 24/5/2004 09:59

toby tots
Well, they were better than expected weren't they ... hence the share price rise on the day. And after eps of 9.5p for October to March, we're now in "pub season" April to September, so I would expect them to beat the consensus 21p for the full year. This, I think, makes them as safe as anything can be over the next 6 months.
However, the view that there's trouble somewhere out there, expressed on this thread, holds sway at the moment I think. All the while this is true, there's nothing eye-catching about MAB's prospectives [PE of 12 (at 250p) and dividend of 3.8%].
On results day, I saw a profit figure above expectations, eps that make the FY target comfortably reachable, and a strategy that has yet to show any evidence of failing. So I held. One more set of above consensus results (FY is reported in December) could swing opinion round and take the share price nearer 300p

Mike.

[toby tots] 20/5/2004 09:36

Hello Mike.....any comments on the results?

[tainanmike] 08/5/2004 08:53

Here are excerpts from FT.com article, "Pub groups hit by probe fears", May 7 2004, on the announcement 0800 referred to (post 62).

"Shares in Britain's two biggest pub companies - Enterprise Inns and Punch Taverns - fell on Friday after a committee of MPs said it would investigate beer prices and rents paid by thousands of publicans in the "tenanted" pub industry.

Punch shares fell 5 per cent to 503p and Enterprise 3 per cent to 578p. Shares in Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries, another tenanted pub owner, fell more than 2 per cent.

Many tenanted pubs are in private ownership. Publicans that lease their pubs generally pay more than the market rate for beer because their pub company is their exclusive beer supplier, as well as being their landlord. Pub companies claim the extra beer cost is balanced by cheaper rents.

The trade and industry committee has asked for written submissions on the matter by June 2, citing claims that the pub companies were becoming too dominant. The committee said it would look at: exclusive beer supply deals; the link between beer prices and rents; the profits pub companies make on wholesaling beer; the difference between the pub companies' wholesale prices and the free market price; and the way rents are set."

So, a little unwelcome distraction for the competition ... can't be bad I suppose - it may make MAB look "safer"!

[0800] 07/5/2004 16:26

Price will improve due to the decline in the pubco's (Punch, Enterprise) recent DTI announcement with regard to rent and wholesale prices charged, will move investors out of the lease companies into the managed sector.
Interesting what they will say on the 19th.........maybe a lot on like for like sales improving, promotional activity working, but overall profits down v last year (same as stated in Dec)
Need another Osmond type bid to rally the price to its breakup potential (300??)

[tainanmike] 06/5/2004 17:22

Mmmm ... more right than I'd like to be (about the weakness) considering I already hold some. Have given up on buying in the 240's - they reached that target too fast! Price looks incredibly weak at the moment, so I'll see what they say on the 19th.

[0800] 04/5/2004 14:07

Right about the weakness in the share price........MAB have had issues on the High St for the past three years, look at their brands that have failed Bar Coast,Goose (JDW copy) Edwards, so you can compare with JDW. Only fours years ago MAB poured capex on to the High St brands,and then retreated.
H1 will show small increase in sales, but a decrease in margin, due to promotional pricing to match the price of the competition. How long is this substainable, 40% of the the companies outlets are on the High St.
MAB must resolve their problems, before you will see good substainable growth

[tainanmike] 29/4/2004 09:41

MAB falling with JDW today. Critical comment in JD's statement was "FY could be around the lower end." As both JD's and MAB's share prices are right at their recent highs, it's not surprising that both should be down today. However, MAB is not JDW (obvious I know, but you know what I mean), and on a prospectives comparison (data from FT.com)MAB comes out very favourably:

JDW July 2004 peps 19.1p --> ppe 15.7 @300p. pdiv 3.9p a share
MAB Sep 2004 peps 21.0p --> ppe 12.6 @264p. pdiv 9.5p a share

I wouldn't now be surprised to see weakness in MAB's share price up to H1 results on 19 May, but if it does weaken further would be very tempted by anything in the 240's.

[anjam] 01/4/2004 13:50

From frequenttrader.info:

"I bought some Mitchell and Butler (MAB) on the spreads yesterday afternoon for £20 a point at 262. The sector is definitely recovering and I think there is probably a 30 point rise in the offing for this one barring a big market fall. Stop loss 253, target 292. It's just breaking through chart-wise and I think it could follow through."

[deeldee] 01/4/2004 09:07

Well with the share price rising today it looks like the presentations to the analysts went well.

I had a brief look yesterday at the presentation and the strategy seems to make sense but the proof will be in the delivery of this over the coming years.

They are aiming to continiue growing their food revenues something which they have been very gd at over the last few years and are looking to benefit from the attractive demographic trends in that the amount of 45+ year olds is incresing.

Also gd to see that they are running many marketing campaigns and that these are proving successful, so many companies in the current climate shy away from this and are content just to cut costs.

[tainanmike] 01/4/2004 08:18

Thanks for that post (54) Stormy. Definitely interesting - the price target is a slight step up from those I've seen to date (280-320p).

[onlyonestorm] 30/3/2004 12:03

OH to be an analyist!!!!!!!!

RNS Number:0808X
Mitchells & Butlers PLC
30 March 2004



MITCHELLS & BUTLERS plc

SEMINAR FOR ANALYSTS AND INVESTORS


Mitchells & Butlers plc (MAB) is holding a seminar for analysts and investors on
its sales strategy on Tuesday 30 March 2004 in Central London. The seminar will
be followed by visits to MAB pubs in the area.


The presentations made will be available from Wednesday 31 March 2004 on our
website at


No new trading information will be disclosed. The next update to the market for
Mitchells & Butlers plc will be with the Interim Results on 19 May 2004.

STORMY (A uninvited INVESTOR!)

[onlyonestorm] 29/3/2004 23:42

Spotted this if anyone is interested

March 30, 2004

Smith Barney raises toast to Mitchells & Butlers
By Nick Hasell
Smaller capitalisation shares



MITCHELLS & BUTLERS found its best level since last year's demerger from InterContinental Hotels as a leading stockbroker emerged with a debut buy recommendation on the All Bar One and Harvester pub operator.
Although it is circulars from Merrill Lynch and Cazenove, its joint stockbrokers, that typically have most effect on its share price, it was the turn of Citigroup to hold sway yesterday. Ivor Jones, leisure analyst at Smith Barney, started coverage of M&B with a 325p target. He cited a stabilisation in like-for-like sales and evidence that its pricing policy is working. He also suggested that a smoking ban in its pubs is likely, but thinks this should not hurt the company commercially. M&B, whose first-half trading period draws to a close tomorrow, put on 9½p at 263p


STORMY

[tainanmike] 18/3/2004 08:44

Onehanded, good luck to you too.

[onehanded] 18/3/2004 07:15

Tainanmike. Could reach £2.80 but I held a large amount and reached my profit target. The fact that pub owners are going to be hit with a police bill for late night drinkers and the fact that it had risen so much reinforced my sell stance. Good luck.

[tainanmike] 16/3/2004 17:33

Onehanded, I see from your title post that you're following through on planned action (if only everyone could do the same!), ... but would have to disagree with you about the advisability of selling at the 260-ish level.
I think there's a good chance that 230p (your potential re-entry) is ancient history (unless the UK market suffers a serious fall): the trend is up - against the market, too -, and the momentum seems to be gathering pace - the people who matter, then, are buying, not selling. Also, this company has given the market good or better news for as long as it's existed, and didn't deserve to be mired in the 220's for as long as it was. Having tracked and owned this stock from probably about the same time as you (my first entry was @ 213), I just cannot see any serious downside from here - I'm holding until at least 280, when a trailing stop is probably the best way out.

[onehanded] 16/3/2004 15:40

Time to call it a day has reached the £2.60p level, which has always been the target without a bid. Selling all my stock. If it goes back to £2.20 - 30p level would get back in. Any holders from the lower levels it may be time to take profits.

[toby tots] 11/3/2004 09:29

Yesterday, joint broker Merrill Lynch gave "buy" advice with 300p target!

[onehanded] 04/3/2004 09:18

EDITTED. Yes £2.50P. Been very strong with no news. Always a good sign.

[daimon] 03/3/2004 19:31

er do you mean £2.50? as a holder that would be my preferred direction of share price movement.

[onehanded] 03/3/2004 13:25

Ready to make a break for £2.50p , many false dawns. We will see.

[onehanded] 25/2/2004 13:39

It has hit a big resistance level of £2.40p. It could drop again to £2.24 support level or break out up to £2.60p level. I am holding as in the coming months some interesting action could be on the way. If you sell around £2.36 -38 level that's not a bad price, plus the divi you have had.

[zapa] 25/2/2004 07:59

Excuse me butting in it means In My Humble Opinion.