Mining Minerals & Metals Share Discussion Threads

[cestnous] 30/5/2006 21:02

.....only if the bullet hits you before you hear the bang.

[pgh3] 30/5/2006 20:57

or drop dead of boredom

[cestnous] 30/5/2006 20:06

This is a quiet pause for dramatic effect. Everyone will jump when the gun goes off.

[diddlboy] 30/5/2006 17:24

You can say that again Mate. !!!!!

[shopp] 30/5/2006 15:32

No trades and no comments. Eerily quiet.

[valentine] 29/5/2006 15:52

Good find Rob.
Let`s hope precursor to good week all round.
The election in Colombia was a surprise but looks like what was holding CHP back, in the background.
If only all things were that simple eh?

[robbi123] 29/5/2006 12:43

Not much new to report but still getting a very positive mention:




"District mineralization

As previously reported, important auriferous mineralization is associated to the western margin of the Bougouni basin which is the focus of on-going exploration activity in the area of the Mandiana Gold Property. Most notable are Glencar's intersection of 55.19 g/t Au over 20 m in December 2005 about 40 km north of Mandiana and Avnel Gold's recovery of high grade intercepts yielding 73.60 g/t Au over 2 m and 45.90 g/t Au over 4 m in August 2005 approximately 35 km east-south-east of Mandiana.

On April 19th 2006, Avnel Gold announced that it had confirmed and extended the previously defined mineralization with an intercept of 11.1 g/t Au over 24 m on their Djirila Main Zone. Moreover, on May 2nd 2006, Glencar announced that it had confirmed and extended the previously defined mineralization with an interception of 41.84 g/t Au over 11 m in their recently completed reverse circulation drilling program."

[jackohelp] 26/5/2006 13:28

Where to now? There is an interesting chart on GAL thread header(coloured one)showing mine production v share price Where is GEX on this process.

[robbi123] 26/5/2006 10:20

not sure about that fact deka1. would be interesting to read though!

should be some delayed buys this morning!

[deka1] 26/5/2006 08:38

robi, thanks for the article very interesting , i read somewhere that the amount of economicly minable gold left on the planet will last between 50 and 100 yrs ,any comments on this

[robbi123] 25/5/2006 19:29

Feature Story Date: May 18, 2006

The F.T. Loses The Plot When Discussing The Case For Gold By Overlooking The Supply/Demand Situation

Whenever the Financial Times mentions gold it tends to use a somewhat pompous tone and stick to economic arguments. A classic example was last week end when a very experienced journalist, who shall remain nameless to spare his blushes, entered the fray. He kicked off by saying that gold was at a 25 year high and that enthusiasts for the yellow metal claim it is a hedge against inflation and against geopolitical risk. Earlier in his article he had already said that bond yields are hardly indicative of enormous inflationary concern so that cuts out one of the reasons to invest in gold. He then went on to say that gold was no longer a hedge against dollar weakness as it is now rising against all currencies. Why this means it is not a hedge against the dollar is a question only he can answer.

Brushing this aside our journalist friend went on to discuss geopolitical risk and suggested that if investors were worrying about the confrontation with Iran money should be flowing out of other risky assets, such as emerging market debt and into safe havens such as US Treasury bonds. Presumably he forgot that US bonds are denominated in US dollars and it is the weakness of the US dollar that is worrying investors. He then quotes Charles Dumas of Lombard Street Research who suggests that gold is being supported by Asian and Middle East investors avoiding tax and money laundering regulations in the US. The argument put against this is that gold should therefore be outpacing other commodities. As it is not, says the FT journalist, it must be global liquidity that is pushing gold and other commodities higher.

Fine and good, but where does this get us? For an answer and a cogent case for gold we can turn to the Annual Report of a small Canadian company called Moneta Porcupine where the directors have devoted a whole page to "The Case For Gold Bullion And Gold Shares". It would be facile to suggest that this was self-serving as all three of the directors who signed off on it have reputations of their own to preserve. The chairman Rod Whyte has long been involved with the mining industry since coming to London from Australia in 1971 to join stockbrokers Grieveson Grant as a mining analyst. The newly appointed chief executive Kevin Snook has a CV as long as your arm from being managing director of Toronto Financial Advisory Services of Deloitte & Touche LLP specializing in corporate finance and mergers and acquisitions to co-founding Airboss of America and working internationally in field operations for five years in the resource sector with Schlumberger. For good measure he is also a director of Geoinformatics. And Michael Coulson needs no introduction as he has been London's leading mining analyst for many a year and is the author of 'An Insider's Guide To The Mining Sector' which was published in 2004.

Their argument for gold avoids all the cul-de sacs beloved of economists and sticks to supply and demand which is central to all investment decisions on commodities. It goes as follows:

"Gold entered the new millennium as out of favour as it had been in living memory; now six years later, an increasing number of investors believe that gold will not only breach the previous high of US$850 an ounce seen in January 1980, but may also break through the magical US$1,000 level.

Having bottomed out in 2001 at US$252 in the wake of the Bank of England's second misguided sale of U.K. gold reserves since World War II, the gold price recovered to US$330 in early summer 2002. Gold shares spiked in anticipation of the gold price forging ahead, but subsided and then fell back when price support from the gold bullion market did not materialize. Over the subsequent four years, gold has steadily (and recently dramatically) risen to 25-year record levels above US$680, but it has still actually underperformed other commodities such as copper, silver and oil. At the same time, gold shares have not run ahead in anticipation of a longer term bull market in gold bullion, although recent months have been considerably more volatility as the more perceptive institutional fund managers and high-net-worth private investors realize that they have inadequate exposure to the gold sector. Gold is clearly and firmly in a bull market.

Many investors, wrong-footed by the strength of metal prices in recent years, have focused investment on the big marketable mining houses such as Rio Tinto and BHP and major gold producers, such as Goldcorp and Randgold. Smaller gold explorers have largely been overlooked on grounds that they lack "liquidity". Activity in junior mining stocks has been sporadic and event-driven over the last two years and market pricing has not been efficient. Investment banks and stockbrokers have not been able to provide comprehensive coverage with peer comparisons at the junior end of the sector. There is now rising evidence that investors and the media are "catching up" with the bull market in the commodities sector, and stockbrokers and investment banks are actively seeking corporate targets for the larger gold producers and to identify and raise capital for smaller listed companies with known gold resources, competent management and considered business plans.

Driving the sector is the fact that gold production is in effect stagnating as most leading gold producers find it difficult to replace reserves, let alone increase them. South Africa is a prime example as thirty years ago it produced over 90% of the western world's gold, but will soon lose its position as the world's largest producer. Domestic production is declining as it is not economic for producers to extract gold at greater depths and lower grades, and, once deep shafts close, they seldom reopen, which suggests that the declining production trend is likely irreversible regardless of the gold price. New discoveries are certainly being made around the world, but most are too small to affect the supply/demand imbalance. A massive increase in exploration is needed and new technologies must be applied to make new discoveries. At the present time, there are simply not enough new mines in the pipeline to reverse the rising trend of the gold price.

The level of central bank reserves has historically been a favourite topic whenever the media seeks to dampen investor enthusiasm for gold. However, most European central banks have already achieved their targeted sales of gold reserves, while Far Eastern and Russian central banks are still seeking to achieve their buying targets. Not surprisingly, investors now question whether any potential central bank overhang actually exists. We believe that the central banks no longer have large liquid holdings available to dampen the gold market. In fact, recent and detailed analysis suggests that the official sector has 'lost' large amounts of gold through the bullion lending process, by which gold has already been sold by the borrowers (primarily bullion banks) and cannot be bought back except at higher prices than currently prevail. Central bank activity in our opinion may well buttress the rising gold price trend.

Moneta's directors are unanimously of the opinion that gold is setting itself up to breach the 1980 US$850 peak and will remain in an overall rising trend for the rest of this decade. This situation provides unparalleled opportunities for smaller listed companies, blessed with a gold resource and a sensible business plan."

Minews rests his case

[robbi123] 25/5/2006 19:29

Feature Story Date: May 18, 2006

The F.T. Loses The Plot When Discussing The Case For Gold By Overlooking The Supply/Demand Situation

Whenever the Financial Times mentions gold it tends to use a somewhat pompous tone and stick to economic arguments. A classic example was last week end when a very experienced journalist, who shall remain nameless to spare his blushes, entered the fray. He kicked off by saying that gold was at a 25 year high and that enthusiasts for the yellow metal claim it is a hedge against inflation and against geopolitical risk. Earlier in his article he had already said that bond yields are hardly indicative of enormous inflationary concern so that cuts out one of the reasons to invest in gold. He then went on to say that gold was no longer a hedge against dollar weakness as it is now rising against all currencies. Why this means it is not a hedge against the dollar is a question only he can answer.

Brushing this aside our journalist friend went on to discuss geopolitical risk and suggested that if investors were worrying about the confrontation with Iran money should be flowing out of other risky assets, such as emerging market debt and into safe havens such as US Treasury bonds. Presumably he forgot that US bonds are denominated in US dollars and it is the weakness of the US dollar that is worrying investors. He then quotes Charles Dumas of Lombard Street Research who suggests that gold is being supported by Asian and Middle East investors avoiding tax and money laundering regulations in the US. The argument put against this is that gold should therefore be outpacing other commodities. As it is not, says the FT journalist, it must be global liquidity that is pushing gold and other commodities higher.

Fine and good, but where does this get us? For an answer and a cogent case for gold we can turn to the Annual Report of a small Canadian company called Moneta Porcupine where the directors have devoted a whole page to "The Case For Gold Bullion And Gold Shares". It would be facile to suggest that this was self-serving as all three of the directors who signed off on it have reputations of their own to preserve. The chairman Rod Whyte has long been involved with the mining industry since coming to London from Australia in 1971 to join stockbrokers Grieveson Grant as a mining analyst. The newly appointed chief executive Kevin Snook has a CV as long as your arm from being managing director of Toronto Financial Advisory Services of Deloitte & Touche LLP specializing in corporate finance and mergers and acquisitions to co-founding Airboss of America and working internationally in field operations for five years in the resource sector with Schlumberger. For good measure he is also a director of Geoinformatics. And Michael Coulson needs no introduction as he has been London's leading mining analyst for many a year and is the author of 'An Insider's Guide To The Mining Sector' which was published in 2004.

Their argument for gold avoids all the cul-de sacs beloved of economists and sticks to supply and demand which is central to all investment decisions on commodities. It goes as follows:

"Gold entered the new millennium as out of favour as it had been in living memory; now six years later, an increasing number of investors believe that gold will not only breach the previous high of US$850 an ounce seen in January 1980, but may also break through the magical US$1,000 level.

Having bottomed out in 2001 at US$252 in the wake of the Bank of England's second misguided sale of U.K. gold reserves since World War II, the gold price recovered to US$330 in early summer 2002. Gold shares spiked in anticipation of the gold price forging ahead, but subsided and then fell back when price support from the gold bullion market did not materialize. Over the subsequent four years, gold has steadily (and recently dramatically) risen to 25-year record levels above US$680, but it has still actually underperformed other commodities such as copper, silver and oil. At the same time, gold shares have not run ahead in anticipation of a longer term bull market in gold bullion, although recent months have been considerably more volatility as the more perceptive institutional fund managers and high-net-worth private investors realize that they have inadequate exposure to the gold sector. Gold is clearly and firmly in a bull market.

Many investors, wrong-footed by the strength of metal prices in recent years, have focused investment on the big marketable mining houses such as Rio Tinto and BHP and major gold producers, such as Goldcorp and Randgold. Smaller gold explorers have largely been overlooked on grounds that they lack "liquidity". Activity in junior mining stocks has been sporadic and event-driven over the last two years and market pricing has not been efficient. Investment banks and stockbrokers have not been able to provide comprehensive coverage with peer comparisons at the junior end of the sector. There is now rising evidence that investors and the media are "catching up" with the bull market in the commodities sector, and stockbrokers and investment banks are actively seeking corporate targets for the larger gold producers and to identify and raise capital for smaller listed companies with known gold resources, competent management and considered business plans.

Driving the sector is the fact that gold production is in effect stagnating as most leading gold producers find it difficult to replace reserves, let alone increase them. South Africa is a prime example as thirty years ago it produced over 90% of the western world's gold, but will soon lose its position as the world's largest producer. Domestic production is declining as it is not economic for producers to extract gold at greater depths and lower grades, and, once deep shafts close, they seldom reopen, which suggests that the declining production trend is likely irreversible regardless of the gold price. New discoveries are certainly being made around the world, but most are too small to affect the supply/demand imbalance. A massive increase in exploration is needed and new technologies must be applied to make new discoveries. At the present time, there are simply not enough new mines in the pipeline to reverse the rising trend of the gold price.

The level of central bank reserves has historically been a favourite topic whenever the media seeks to dampen investor enthusiasm for gold. However, most European central banks have already achieved their targeted sales of gold reserves, while Far Eastern and Russian central banks are still seeking to achieve their buying targets. Not surprisingly, investors now question whether any potential central bank overhang actually exists. We believe that the central banks no longer have large liquid holdings available to dampen the gold market. In fact, recent and detailed analysis suggests that the official sector has 'lost' large amounts of gold through the bullion lending process, by which gold has already been sold by the borrowers (primarily bullion banks) and cannot be bought back except at higher prices than currently prevail. Central bank activity in our opinion may well buttress the rising gold price trend.

Moneta's directors are unanimously of the opinion that gold is setting itself up to breach the 1980 US$850 peak and will remain in an overall rising trend for the rest of this decade. This situation provides unparalleled opportunities for smaller listed companies, blessed with a gold resource and a sensible business plan."

Minews rests his case

[diddlboy] 25/5/2006 07:45

Establishing a good support base at this price.????

[cestnous] 24/5/2006 16:47

Only just in profit now but it's the first one I bought after the fall, and the one I have most confidence in. It's me I don't have any confidence in.

[seamus33] 24/5/2006 16:27

Could it be rollovers?

[largeman] 24/5/2006 16:24

Very strange on the trades today (after trade number 4) every buy or sell is followed by a duplicate buy or sell within a few minutes or seconds. Is this a glitch?

[cestnous] 23/5/2006 23:02

No. The outlook for gold is good again. Candlesticks/ fiddlesticks. The explorers will soon have their day as they have not kept place with recent risers. Back in after the fall and already well in profit.

[slj] 23/5/2006 20:32

Well I don't know much about candlestick charting, but it looks like it finished with a lovely bullish engulfing candle today.... Any candle chartists out there?

[robbi123] 23/5/2006 20:05

good to hear mate, my last purchase was 13.5p!! not looking great now but think we should see that level again soon!? wud u say we have broken the downtrend??

[slj] 23/5/2006 20:03

Have held it on and off (more on than off) since 2.7p

[robbi123] 23/5/2006 19:57

cheers mate, will have a look into it. do u hold gex yet?

[slj] 23/5/2006 19:56

Point & Figure is a form of charting, robbi. There was a thread on ADVFN somewhere discussing it but I don't have the link anymore.

[robbi123] 23/5/2006 19:30

on ur what sorry mate??? its been a buy signal for ages on my fundamental chart too :) glad someone is around!

[slj] 23/5/2006 19:13

Not on your own robbi...

This gave a buy signal on my Point & Figure chart today too.

[robbi123] 23/5/2006 18:13

am i on my own here??