Mining Minerals & Metals Share Discussion Threads

[valentine] 11/3/2008 17:05

Large trades are a regular occurance here. No explanation.

[1waving] 11/3/2008 17:04

If whoever was buying/selling crosses a threshold i.e. 3% or 5% a RNS will have to be released in the next couple of days.
Those two trades could also relate to the exercise of warrants.
The total of those trades was about 1.5% of mkt cap.
Could simply be buys/sells that are not notifiable.
We will have to wait and see.
The price was not disturbed. That is good.


.

[scaffold] 11/3/2008 16:53

strange buy/sell, as bid/offer never moved.
If anyone out there has a theory or can explain, please do post it.
scaffold

[bartender18] 11/3/2008 14:41

Are these buys??

[spaceparallax] 10/3/2008 12:23

IMHO, the correct balance is to achieve self-sufficiency of funding ASAP.

[1waving] 09/3/2008 19:43

serp, was looking for this article in relation to your question.

Food for thought following the last two posts :-

GOLD - HOW HIGH WILL IT GO?
How about $10,000? or $1,000? Or even $100,000?
by Krassimir Petrov, PhD
The American University in Bulgaria
February 19, 2008



Article extract:-

Which is the most likely price target will depend on how Fed will fight inflation. Based on the Fed's reaction, there are three possible future scenarios: (1) deflation, (2) stagflation, and (3) strong inflation. Let us consider each in turn.

The first scenario, deflation, implies a major contraction in the supply of money and credit, similar to the one during the Great Depression. Consumer and commodity prices would fall rapidly; the stock market and real estate market would collapse. Back then, stock prices and real estate fell roughly 10 times and gold rose only a little. If this scenario were to play out, then a reasonable forecast for the Dow will be about $1,000-1,500, while the gold price will be likely in the range of $800-1,500. This scenario is highly unlikely as the Fed will fight tooth and nail to prevent a deflation from taking hold.

The second scenario, stagflation, is most likely. It should look similar to the 1970s. Back then, the Dow made its peak in 1966. It made little progress for about 15 years, so that in 1980 it was just about where it was in 1966, roughly around 1,000. Gold, on the other hand, rose from a low of $35 all the way to $850. This means that strong inflation during the period kept the Dow from falling, so it did not fall as it did during the Great Depression. On the other hand, inflation powered the price of gold about 25-fold. In this scenario, we should expect the Dow to remain range-bound in the 10,000-15,000 range. Then, a gold forecast of 10,000 is perfectly realistic.

The third scenario, very strong inflation, is definitely possible, although less likely than stagflation. This would mean a typical, commonly-observed inflation of a third-world country, may be 15-25% annually. This kind of inflation could easily power the Dow may be 3-4 times in the coming decade, may be all the way to $30,000-50,000. This could mean a $20 for a loaf of bread or a gallon of gasoline. This would imply a gold price in the range of 20,000-50,000. It is possible, even probable, but in my opinion, not very realistic.

To summarize, I believe that both deflation and very strong inflation are not very likely. The likely outcome will be stagflation. Then a $10,000 price of gold is consistent with this view. This is my price target for 2015-2020. My advice is simple – stay with gold and you will be fine in the long run.

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Is it wise for juniors to race to short term production or create a store of value ?

[1waving] 09/3/2008 18:57

serp, the 22 holes outstanding from pre-xmas are taking time to come through/be announced. I just wonder if a GEX are putting together a broader exploration and drilling report. Glencar are normally good at newsflow, much more so than many juniors. Would expect at least drill results within a week or two.

My immediate thoughts on your question of what is optimal may come down to a case by case basis, or circumstances of each individual company.

I think that two factors are driving growing trends, the price of gold and majors needing more resources. This changes the risk profile entirely for juniors from when gold was below $4-500. Those who have gone the quick route to short term production will establish quick cashflow but may be selling their gold very cheaply if many of the forecasts I have seen, and agree with in the main, are correct. Those who build up a large resource are creating a store of value.

I am seeing many predictions of gold over several thousand dollars in a few years. Those predictions are very practical.

We'll see how the nature of deals progresses but I do think buy-ins will play a large part.

[serpicouk] 09/3/2008 13:41

Don't think it's unreasonable to expect results every 6 weeks. Particularly as we already have results outstanding from the previous release.....so wonder if we'll get any news this week?

Whilst we wait for some actual news I have a quick query I'd like to hear your comments on:

My observation is that there seems to be a growing trend for small junior gold companies to quickly establish a small gold resource (e.g 750K-1M oz) and then aggressively develop it to a small production rate (eg 30-45K oz/pa).

Others, like GEX, appear to be trying to establish a significant resource and then JV with a major.

What are the factors that make one model optimal over the other? I've not given this any thought myself yet but I suspect the first is now preferred (optimal?) due to the strong gold run over the last few years. Would it ever be appropriate to change business model? How does this effect the nature of the industry as a whole? Less large resources being firmed up for JV with a major? Wonder if this will have a possible positive knock on effect with GEX...

[1waving] 07/3/2008 14:06

With a possible jv coming in a year or so and the majors increasing their profits strongly, the nature of any jv will change for the quality gold explorers.

The earn in, farm in will still be around but the buy in+earn in could become prevalent, particularly for explorers with good resources and more potential to add to those resources.

Competition between the majors will increase to improve reserve levels and add 'strategic' assets.

If gold stays on course we will be well above $1,000 in a year with maybe 3 million ounces or so being apparent with further strike length / targets to drill at Komana. ( and possibly Solona ? )

A pre-emptive strike can not be ruled out by a major trying to pick up assets cheaply.

Glencar should benefit greatly with such quality at Komana and should resist any attempt at a deal without real value.

[deka1] 07/3/2008 12:16

bartender, have a look at CEY , MCR, The latter is producing since oct 07 but still drilling a very large tenement

[1waving] 07/3/2008 09:15

bt18
Why not start a higher-quality junior exploration thread ?

Glencar is my top pick. Very few, if any, with the same qualities and value to come.

[bartender18] 07/3/2008 03:32

"Secondly, you should seriously consider moving some funds into the higher-quality junior exploration stocks."

Some serious suggestions as to which ones onyone? beside GEX of course

[1waving] 06/3/2008 21:47

Minesite article 5th March. Extract relating to juniors:--


It won't be long before others also note the pending improvements to the bottom lines of the big gold companies. The investment herd, we are convinced, is coming and, we expect, coming soon.

So how to take maximum advantage of this situation? First and foremost, you want to be moving into the established producing companies post haste. The gangway on this ship is getting ready to be pulled up.

Secondly, you should seriously consider moving some funds into the higher-quality junior exploration stocks. History has proven that, absent an exciting discovery story, the big gold stocks must get in gear before investor sentiment can reach the critical mass needed to ignite the juniors.

History also shows that as profitable as the big gold companies are in a bull market, returns on the juniors can blow those away. Exponentially. This upside, of course, comes with a greater degree of risk.

But paradoxically, this risk has been largely mitigated by the majors' slow take-off. That's because, anticipating that the gold stocks would follow the metal higher – and history shows no example of them not doing so – investors have already poured record amounts of money into exploration programs. As a result, we now know which companies have the goods - significant discoveries that juniors have spent tens of millions to define and prove up with the clear intent of selling to the majors.

The missing element, of course, has been that, until recently, the majors didn't have enough free cash to make those acquisitions. That is about to change.

------------

With the nature and size of deposit Glencar has at Komana, this deposit will be on the hit list of the majors !!

Mark those words - carefully.

[1waving] 06/3/2008 16:33

steadyeddy2
'Price moving up with almost no buys.'

On balance volume turning up.

[bartender18] 06/3/2008 16:27

7.1p to buy (just tried) dont know why someone paid a premium for a small amount?

[steadyeddy2] 06/3/2008 13:59

Glencar starting to become interesting. Price moving up with almost no buys. A small buy this a.m was above the offer.

[1waving] 05/3/2008 16:53

Jim Sinclair on yesterday's action:--

Gold Shares:

The shorts now are now becoming a tad frustrated as they hammer the juniors at every opportunity only to see their sales put away by players as big or bigger than they are.

The minute gold broke down today most issues meet at least 100,000 short sales put in as market orders on the downside. Any pro knows that this was an attempt to manipulate price lower and NOT to sell 100,000.

My message is "Come on suckers, sell some more. If today is the best you can do then you are more worried than even you know."

------------------------

I'll drink to that.

[bongo bwana] 05/3/2008 10:06

EXCELLENT work guys and sincere thanks

[serpicouk] 04/3/2008 23:03

I think the risks should be understood, however, in the context of Africa it is looking like one of the more promising countries to emerge (as the article suggests).

As you can see from the 2008 risk map, Mali avoids the significant risks associated with corruption, political violence and any sector risk associated mineral extractions:

[1waving] 04/3/2008 22:25

Summary from minesite article.

Forecast: Encouraging prospects
While Mali remains among the world's poorest countries, its recent history of political stability and its government's effective implementation of economic liberalisation has begun to lay the groundwork for a market-oriented economy. Given the untapped mining potential and the country's obvious agricultural potential, with a fair wind and continuing political stability, things should go well for Mali.

Investment Outlook: Promising

[serpicouk] 04/3/2008 22:18

A quick political risk analysis for Mali.



A bit more info here:

[1waving] 04/3/2008 22:17

Chart to add to post 2822. You should now be able to compare the chart in that post and see exactly where we are.


free stock charts from www.advfn.com


Technical Analysis
Formed wave 1 up in late 05, early 06, then formed a corrective wave 2 down in the form of an A-B-C to complete wave 2. This is part of Elliott wave theory which means we are now ready for wave 3 up. Wave 3 is the longest and strongest. Note the 14 week RSI has just come up through 30. Very positive technically.

[wispaman] 04/3/2008 22:09

1waving, excellent reading.
Certainly adds to one's knowledge on when to buy-in on exploration companies.
thanks wispaman

[1waving] 04/3/2008 21:44

Excellent article showing the phases of exploration to production and when to invest.

[stenick] 04/3/2008 20:17

Ah there is 12 now then