Mining Minerals & Metals Share Discussion Threads

[1waving] 11/2/2008 18:14

Extract from Davy's stockbroker research report, June 07

Farasaba – Kabaya South target

This is one of the best targets in Glencar's inventory of 'non-Komana'
prospects. It was first drilled in October 2006, and a second programme
of just less than 2,000 metres commenced in February 2007. Several
individual holes recovered commercial grades of gold mineralisation, and
a broad zone of anomalous gold has been established over a strike length
of 800 metres and to a depth of over 100 metres.
The best intersection was 19.2 metres at 3.93 grammes per tonne. The
initial interpretation is that the drilling has outlined a steep westerly
dipping mineralised zone.

Drilling will also take place on the Gold Fields Joint Venture
concessions.The Kabaya South target, located on the Farasaba
concession, will be drilled in October. Likewise drilling is also expected on the Sanioumale concession.
---------------------------------

Possible upwards surprise ???

[bongo bwana] 11/2/2008 17:26

I think we have a lovely pool of helpful contributers here and long may it last.

[1waving] 11/2/2008 13:43

Extract from Gold Fields end of 2007 exploration report. Interesting how it picks out Kabaya South as worth a specific mention and follow up drilling there in the second half of 2007. As there was no drilling from June to October, must be Nov/Dec RC drilling, we have not seen the latest results there.


Sankarani project

At the Sankarani Project in Mali, Gold Fields is earning a 65 per cent project interest from Glencar Mining plc. To date, just over US$2.5 million has been expended giving Gold Fields an effective 25 per cent interest in the project. 168 holes totalling approximately 12,500 metres were drilled. The initial drilling was completed early in F2007 and follow-up RC drilling took place on the Kabaya South target during the second half of F2007. Gold Fields has the right to increase its stake in the project to 51 per cent by spending an additional US$1.5 million by the end of the second quarter F2008.

[haydock] 11/2/2008 09:35

The Ghana holdings sounds to have had more work than I as a newcomer was aware was the situation.
In these times i.5m ounces is of course well worth the effort if the costs are right.
Any more details of the state of suspended play ?

[dr fillip strange] 10/2/2008 20:35

I think it's plausible that Gold will rise above $1,000 an ounce this year

interesting article in Weekend FT,a return to the highs of late 70's gold price
on an inflation adjusted basis would see gold at more than $2,000 an ounce. Also the implications of the energy crisis in South African on gold production should be taken into account..



Article on Central banks manipulation of the price of gold

[bongo bwana] 10/2/2008 19:10

From past conversations with Hugh Mc and at a time when the price of Au was circa $375/ounce and world class Cyprus America decided to take up a JV option on Kanyankaw in Ghana I recall that this JV ultimately came to nothing (other than GEX gettting possession of the very very valuable database of the drilling results) failed because Cyprus America considered the mineralised zone to contain not more than 1.5million ounces. For them this represented something of a break even risk and at that time the price of Au was commencing a steady decline to $230/ounce.

I still remember the pain of that but I also remember that GEX reached 70p following the CyprusAmerica JV.

Back to the estimate of the ounces eceonomically recoverable from the Komana deposit(s). It would take a considerable period of time and substantial additional funds to complete drilling at Komana to prove up to 4m ounces. I think the knocking on thedoor of GEX will really start in earnest when we get to the 2m probable ounces stage and not beyond that.

[bongo bwana] 09/2/2008 18:25

1Waving - its clear that indeed a catalyst like event will spring the share price sigificantly above the 200day MA (the green line?).

The catalysts not mentioned include:

Excellent drilling results at the Sankarini Project by GF
Excellent results from the remaining cores that GEX is awaiting from its Yanafolia project,

Other less likely [ at this time ] catalysts:

A handome offer for the Yanafolia Project license areas from a firm other than GF - leading to a tussle for GEX,
The sale of GEX's interest in Ghana or Uganda,
An offer to GEX for its Sankarini Project area from GF.

Even less likely catalyst AT THIS TIME:
The price of gold reaching $1,000/ounce. This will only become a material consideration for investors when GEX has a mine approaching production phase. But according to GEX "mining" is not part of its corporate knitting so at some stage it will reach a point where it will decide to dispose of a significant part of its interest in Komana.

Now, which one of the foregoing is the 'wild card' in the pack which could happen on any Monday morning or Friday evening?

[1waving] 08/2/2008 18:46

A quiet week.

Would think the 13 hole programme at Komana East is now complete and the RC drill has gone back to Komana West. RAB drilling on 3 targets at Solona ongoing. Detailed airborne survey ongoing, hope they get airmiles, there's a lot of miles to fly at 50 metre spacings. Not a lot of news on what Gold Fields is doing on the other 3 licences other than RAB drilling for geochemical purposes at Bokoro.

Further results from 22 holes due soon.

Thought for the week:-
There is approx 1.8kms of strike length at Komana West and now a further 2 strikes 3.5kms and 9kms to the South along the hosted shear zone.
What will be the total length of strikes along that hosted shear zone ???

Have a good weekend

[1waving] 04/2/2008 16:47

Glencar chart


free stock charts from www.advfn.com

You should be able to see the technicals on here
Additional TA Factor. The share price is sat on the 200 week moving average.

[haydock] 04/2/2008 15:57

Sorry the link does not work.
You seem to be pretty convinced we will have a result soon, so will wait & see.

[1waving] 04/2/2008 15:22

Haydock, from a post I made on Sharecrazy on 14th JAN

GLENCAR MINING--- GEX
A gold play increasing it's resource --- TECHNICALS

After discovering a good strike at Komana West in Mali in late 2005 the shares rose to a peak in early 06. From there the chart has formed an A-B-C down with volume drying up on the C leg. Try looking at this on a weekly chart with a 14 period RSI and volume histogram. The volume is distorted by Glencar's previous funding arrangements ( which ended in Aug/Sept '07 following a private placement ) which caused a volume spike once a month however it is still apparent that volume has dried up. The 14 week RSI has just come up through 30. This is quite a classic pattern with the excitement of the discovery then a fall away. There is news due in the next few weeks of 9,800m of drilling completed in late '07. Those drilling results could be the catalyst for the next leg up.

In Elliott terms if the impulsive rise in late'05/early '06 is counted as wave 1, the A-B-C down as a corrective wave 2 it is now time to look at an impulsive wave 3 up. Should this be the case wave 1 up was 14 pence therefore implying wave 3 would be at least 14 pence as wave 3 would be the longest wave.

and from a post I made on GEI on 13th JAN

After discovering a good strike at Komana West in Mali in late 2005 the shares rose to a peak in early 06. From there the chart has formed an A-B-C down with volume drying up on the C leg. Try looking at this on a weekly chart with a 14 period RSI and volume histogram. The volume is distorted by Glencar's previous funding arrangements ( which ended in Aug/Sept '07 following a private placement ) which caused a volume spike once a month however it is still apparent that volume has dried up. The 14 week RSI is just coming up through 30. This is quite a classic pattern with the excitement of the discovery then a fall away.

Hope this helps Haydock

[1waving] 04/2/2008 14:47

Haydock, that post on GEI, reached through Minesite, if that's what you're looking at, may be mine. The link you have posted seems not to work. My post refers to Elliott Wave theory ( which inludes the A-B-C corrective phase down with volume drying up on the C leg ) and RSI on weekly chart. Will put up on here later.

Could you try the above link again. Thanks
I am TA orientated.

[haydock] 04/2/2008 14:40

Not a technical man, but I try to learn all the time.
There has been discussion on the Minesite thread as to the validity of the Glencar graph, correlating with a classic ABC trend.
All I can say is that it looks possible,as do many of the small miners at the moment,& the volume is definatley falling away, as required.
Have a look at:
.

Now would be the classical time for the catalyst & breakout would undoubtedly follow.
You can all draw your own graphs & conclusions.

[bongo bwana] 04/2/2008 13:54

Many thanks 1W

[bongo bwana] 04/2/2008 12:20

A JV in relation to GEX's Ghana interests has been put on shareholders radar for a couple of years now but remember GEX is not driving that project and it seems like the firm who made the approach arent that pushed about concluding it either.

Im sure GEX would not conclude a JV which does not provide its shareholders with a decent chance of good returns from its highly prospective acreage in Ghana.

Perhaps by this years AGM!

[haydock] 04/2/2008 11:37

Maybe: whatever happened to the long discussed j/v, around about October was the last mention?

[bongo bwana] 04/2/2008 11:24

1waving - do you want to hypothesise on the most likely catalysts ?

[1waving] 04/2/2008 09:38

The estimates are subjective and do look maybe a year ahead, (edit. the estimate is what I can see being proved up from drilling completed so far. New strikes will only add to that. ) but the overall intent was to look at Julius Baring's method and see how it related to Glencar.

As for the recovery in juniors there will be a catalyst but what it will be and when remain to be seen. I do think that catalyst will be in the next 6 months. Glencar's own newsflow will help, there is a lot to come over the next few months.

There is a lot of drilling to do to prove up this resource.

[haydock] 04/2/2008 09:25

All a bit glass half full.
The estimates are subjective, although not too difficult to justify.
However perhaps a year ahead still.

The small miners may never surface as the market takes fright & will only touch the large caps.
Howvever if this happens then the small caps will have a field day of their own with widespread m&a because they will have to huddle together to achieve the funding.
The larger groups will grow.

I am discounting the effect of the frenzy, fair enough.

No real problem here, except patience.1m ozs is quite close for a start.

[1waving] 03/2/2008 18:58

The late Julius Baring's investment approach to the mining sector was to invest at or below 10% of in situ value, hold to 40% and then sell, taking no prisoners.

In looking at just the Komana license what is in situ ?

I believe 2 million ounces is not too far off the mark at the moment.

I make this from a resource estimate of 520,000oz, add in the 200,000oz SRK stated would probably be added with infill drilling and the non JORC estimate at Komana East of 280,000oz and there is the first million ounces.

The already known extensions to the North and South at Komana West total about 7-800 metres and have been added to in the latest drill results with ore found to the South West and new 'significant mineralisation' in several RAB holes to the North East. Good extensions found at depth are also a boost in the latest drill results. For this lot I add in what may prove to be a quite conservative 750,000oz

The extent of mineralisation has not yet been found yet at Komana West. A 'zone of significant mineralisation' has been found at Soloba, 3.5kms South along strike from Komana West and 9kms to the South further mineralisation at Kama. For this lot I add in just 250,000oz which gives a grand total of 2 million ounces.

So taking 10% of 2 million gives 200,000oz, times the current gold price of $900.
That all adds up to a very hefty number, $180mln. Quite a way to get to the 10%, never mind Julius Baring's 40% and that IS JUST THE KOMANA LICENSE AREA.

With mining/exploration juniors very much in the doldrums at the moment I think Glencar will do extremely well in it's own right in the near and long term. When the sector turns positive that will also provide a sharp boost or slingshot effect as I have recently heard it called.

[1waving] 01/2/2008 21:43

Haydock, have seen Philip Manduca plenty of times on Bloomberg and have a great deal of respect for his views. He has been bullish on gold for ages and is not the only one calling for $2,000 gold within 2 years and is bullish for some time to come. His views have a very strong logic.
Hadn't seen this clip before so thanks for that.

have a good weekend to all