Mining Minerals & Metals Share Discussion Threads

[bongo bwana] 29/1/2008 16:54

Haydock

Look @ that last sentence !!!!

A couple of examples of jive bunnyisms.

LMAO.

I have €20k available for a short period of time and its bursting me not to put it into GEX pending their results. Hugh Mc is the master of understatement and he is certainly improving at managing positive newsflow. He might even be improving at at managing negative (or nil) newsflow. I have been very fortunate in my ability to occasionally interpret the signals wafting in the GEX ether correctly. As Im in doubt I know I need to talk to the man - if I manage to get that sorted tomorrow I may post subsequently here.

Keep up the good work amigo.

[bongo bwana] 29/1/2008 12:46

EXCELLENT postings and may thanks.

[1waving] 29/1/2008 11:43

Thanks for that link haydock, interesting article. -- Conclusions below.

'In the past several months, valuation levels for large and mid-size producers have increased. On the contrary, junior exploration and development companies have actually gotten cheaper in this time period. The valuation gap between producers and junior exploration companies is the widest it has been in years. Capital-rich but resource-hungry producers will not miss this opportunity.

A takeover frenzy is coming and it will push exploration and development stocks much higher.'

It reminds me of a post I put up yesterday comparing Randgold to Glencar. See below.

'As an example within the mining sector ( never mind outside it ), Randgold has outperformed Glencar by 300% over 3 years and 200% over 1 year.'

And from another post I put up yesterday

'Making a comparison of Glencar's share price to spot gold $ (LBM) over the last 3, 2 and 1 years paints an interesting picture. 3 years is minus circa 15%, 2 years minus 40% and 1year minus 60%. That all sounds rather odd when gold has doubled over the last 3 years and Glencar has made a strong discovery at Komana.'

All positive for Glencar.

[haydock] 29/1/2008 11:26

Valuable find by Fordtin on SER.



Up, Up & away ???

lwaving : thats what i meant, drilling & newsflow will continue to flow this year, after we have bridged the gap.

It all may just be newsflow management.

[1waving] 29/1/2008 11:10

Re: Minesite article on Glencar 23rd Jan.
Glencar has over $4 million in the bank. -- Don't see how bank funding problems relate to Glencar, has plenty of cash and any squeeze not likely to affect gold sector too hard. If cash were needed at present, which it isn't, it would be through equity.
Possible jv at Asheba in Ghana looks to have gone, minesite article makes it clear any jv at Komana West not on cards for a year. This is the right way to go as the more Glencar increases resource and potential at Komana, the stronger position it will be in when it comes to negotiating on a jv.

The seasonality of Glencar due to the rainy season means that we have gone through the quiet season for newsflow and can now look forward to 6-7 months of strong newsflow. Drill results shortly, Komana east being drilled at present,airborne survey over all 5 licences ( this will be very important for identifying targets ), this will drive the share price over coming months.

[bartender18] 29/1/2008 10:07

Seems like a few a picking them up this week, good news on the way perhaps, some people always seem to hear before the rest of us. 7.7p looks agood price to me.

[haydock] 29/1/2008 09:12

Not made public, during discussion period of a j/v perhaps?
Good news might have attracted more interested parties at the crucial time?

The j/v line was news positive in the autumn & whilst now even more likely, & ever more likely with the general bank problems, has gone very quiet.

I can see one positive of the delay: there will now be a good long period of drilling news flow to come this year as the samples back up.
The timing will be better as well than it would have been around mid jan.

[bongo bwana] 29/1/2008 07:33

Capacity may indeed be a prob at the labs and that reallly is quiet a visible issue.

Is anyone here prepared to speculate on what the "other factors" might have been?

[1waving] 28/1/2008 21:41

I agree that comparing a gold major (Randgold) to Glencar is almost like comparing chalk and cheese but it was on the list in the previous post.

From memory SGS Analabs came in for mild criticism in the SRK resource report for Glencar. There is also strong demand for mining support services, analytic labs included, so hopefully the backlog will be cleared.

I do think there is a strong probability of substantial resource increases at Komana before the potential of the other 4 licences are added in.
Anyway, I agree that drill results/newsflow will be a strong driver of the share price and would expect drill results within 2 weeks.

[serpicouk] 28/1/2008 21:23

In fairness, I wouldn't compare them to Randgold either. Barrick might be 1000 times bigger than GEX but Randgold is still 100 times bigger. A gold producer that's increasing production rates, a company with several large resources already defined, high grades, adding over a million oz per year through exploration etc etc...[don't quote me on that as I'm not an expert on Randgold]

Glencar 'only' have a very small 'initial' resource defined. That makes their current EV $/oz still quite high even compared to other gold juniors.

In my view, there is no reason why GEX should follow any gold producers share price or even the price of gold. It will most likely be driven (both up and down) by drill updates. Whilst we've been assured the drilling is progressing well we're still waiting to see what's coming out of the ground.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Interestingly, from a quick google it looks like Nordic diamonds ltd (TXS: NDL) undertook 229 holes for almost 6,000m of RC drilling. This was carried out from last Nov to the end of Dec. Samples were sent SGS Analabs Mali for Gold assay analysis. They got their results last week...hmmm.

Makes me wonder what 'issues' delay our results but seemingly not Nordics?...apart from the obvious issue of SGS analysing Nordics samples over GEXs. But maybe my quick google analysis is flawed. Happy for someone to correct/double check the above. May be there are several labs? Wrong company?

Anyway, if it was just a case of unfavorable prioritisation then SGS labs should have been cleared by the 21st...so may be they're processing GEX samples at full speed now...we can but hope.

[1waving] 28/1/2008 18:42

Haydock, not sure if I would compare Glencar to Barrick ( If only !!!! ) but the main point was that it is the juniors/explorers who have lagged behind therefore giving more potential. As an example within the mining sector ( never mind outside it ), Randgold has outperformed Glencar by 300% over 3 years and 200% over 1 year.

More value to be realised

[bongo bwana] 28/1/2008 17:27

Just in case a perception mistakenly arises that Im dissing GEX - Im not - NO! Not by a long shot, but caution is the name of the game right now regardless (except in the most unusual of circumstances) of the share price on an ounce of Au.

But the ball seems to be out of GEX's possession right now and regardless of their relationship with Goldfields, it appears that they are unable to have the labs at Morillo prioritise their cubic metres of drilling cores/sampling for analysis/attention.

[ My occasional machavellian disposition provokes a slew of thoughts on the possibilities which may lie behind this 'disappointment' and none of them are of the amusing or funny haha variety ].

And THAT appears to only ONE of the probs that GEX is encountering in relation to the publication of drilling results issue.

I hasten to add that the foregoing IS subjective, very subjective in fact and is purely based on the December announcement and other factors.

[stuart14] 28/1/2008 14:02

I think a lot of the weakness in Junior Gold Plays is that funding is a lot more expensive than it used to be, also machinery, parts, even staff are a lot harder to come by. If an exploration play can get itself to production the upside should be a lot more than it used to be, as all that "Potential" historically discounted will come into play.

[1waving] 28/1/2008 13:57

Thoughts on Glencar v gold ------ My own view ------- DYOR

Gold mining juniors are a geared play on gold i.e. if the cost per oz is $300 and the price of gold is $400 there is a margin of $100. If the price of gold then goes to $500, that's an increase of 25%, but the margin goes from $100 to $200 giving an increase of 100%. The opposite is true if the price of gold goes the other way.

Making a comparison of Glencar's share price to spot gold $ (LBM) over the last 3, 2 and 1 years paints an interesting picture. 3 years is minus circa 15%, 2 years minus 40% and 1year minus 60%. That all sounds rather odd when gold has doubled over the last 3 years and Glencar has made a strong discovery at Komana.

This can in part being explained by looking at a model of a single project where the initial exploration and discovery may take a couple of years, the share price rockets on news of the discovery. There is then a fall away over a couple of years whilst drilling continues. The project is then taken towards production and finally production over a couple of years. This is when the share price rises again. That is based on a single project and company. Additional discoveries would change that model substantially.

A second reason for share price underperformance is the general underperformance of gold mining /exploration juniors against gold, not just in the UK, but around the world.
I suspect it may be cash going directly into gold or ETF's, until gold consolidates.
That is when the smart money will come back into the gold juniors and they will play catch up.

The future price of gold from a technical analysis view looks very strong in the short, medium and long term and I would expect a consolidation soon. On a more fundamental view I look to what is happening globally and to a certain extent from what happened in the19th century. The western world went through an industrial revolution which created protracted growth and increased wealth with a population of maybe 2-300 million. In Asian emerging markets we are going through something similar but with a population of well over 3 billion.. Protracted growth and increased wealth, with that population. Demand in general will be high and as more people achieve wealth and status, what will they buy to say they have arrived, gold diamonds and all things precious whether for jewellery, status or as a store of value. Gold is very popular in Asia. High retail demand.

The Swiss central bank announced a few months ago it would be selling off some of it's gold reserves over the next few years which hardly affected the gold price. China has built up massive sovereign funds which will need a home in various asset classes, I would think gold will feature in this and dwarf the Swiss sales, time will tell. Overall I believe strong investment as a 'store of value' will continue for quite some time.

Taking all this into account I think that Glencar is grossly undervalued and the share price is currently at a price we will not see again.

I think this post is quite long enough and hopefully, may prompt some thought, so will finish by saying practical comments welcome
----------- As ever, do your own research, but do it THOROUGHLY. ------------

[deka1] 28/1/2008 13:49

yeh haydock, all those projections i read last year about gold going over 2k/oz are starting to look very possible now, in the next year or two

[haydock] 28/1/2008 12:32

a second attempt to nick this from cey. bb.
Wonder where I put the first?
Anyway absolute rocket fuel.

leedskier - 27 Jan'08 - 21:30 - 9467 of 9469


But see:



IMF gold trading rule changes set to boost the gold price
The International Monetary Fund is in the process of revising the laws that govern the trading of gold by the world's central banks which will radically change the ability of central bankers to suppress the gold price, a major factor depressing the price of the yellow metal that has been an open secret for years.
Sunday, January 28 - 2007 at 10:05

[bongo bwana] 28/1/2008 10:39

Thanks Scaffold.

Theres a lot of "ifs" and "buts" IMPLIED in this part of the statement released in December 2007.

Indeed, Im interpreting the recent minesite article as Hugh Mc suggesting that the next MATERIAL (note emphasis) JORC news MAY BE quiet a bit later in the year. And I certainly would not rule out that possibility.

"plant unavailability and other factors" - Id like that one forensically analysed for a start.

[spaceparallax] 28/1/2008 10:12

Scaffold,

Thanks.

[scaffold] 27/1/2008 22:20

Assay results are currently awaited for more than 4,000 samples which have been submitted to the laboratory to date. The laboratory has suffered some delays due to plant unavailability and other factors.

We are hopeful that we will have sufficient assay results returned to enable us to make an interim announcement of drilling results by the end of January 2008.

[haydock] 25/1/2008 13:43

Yes he is active on a Glencar site on Minesite.com
Worth a read anyway,quite active this month & very positive.

[1waving] 25/1/2008 13:09

Haydock, read the post by frizzers on gold, does he comment on Glencar at all that you know of ?
Does frizzers use this name on bulletin boards ?

Am compiling some info on Gex v Gold will post in a few days.

[haydock] 25/1/2008 11:05

One thats going the rounds, a real treat for us all!!!!

frizzers posted this on GOLD. Worth a read.