Minera Share Discussion Threads

[justthemoney] 29/12/2014 16:37

In this game there are no prisoners. Whoever provides finances would want full ownership of the company as without the finance in place the company will run out of cash in a couple of months time. Another sad story I'm afraid. Very bad timing on the part of the management to get otherwise good business to its knees.

[hutch_pod] 24/12/2014 22:30

I see, thanks! Xmas reading for me.

[haydock] 24/12/2014 12:10

I think you could check PGD, they have just refinanced ?

[hutch_pod] 24/12/2014 09:58

Thanks Boadicea. Do you know of any recent precedent of pulling of such a financing trick despite a bombed out share price? I'm not an old hand with miners, so still finding my feet.

[hazl] 24/12/2014 07:20

Fair and balanced post boadicea.
Theory good but can't see them ever doing it....the idea of restricting it to present shareholders that you cited.

[boadicea] 24/12/2014 00:04

The current share price bears no realistic relationship to the value of the assets because it no longer represents the capital that has to be put into the exploitation of Ollachea. It assumes that a large proportion of that capital will be raised by heavy dilution whereby the bulk of the existing assets will effectively be transferred to the new subscribers. Hence, given the ratio of capital required to the current capitalisation, the current share price is hardly relevant to potential new equity providers - eg. they could put in £100m at 10p a share and get 87% of the equity, or put in £100m at 2p and get 97% of the equity. That is a difference of x5 for existing holders but only ~10% for placees!

The theoretical way around this conundrum to my mind would be to restrict future capital subscription rights entirely to those already holding shares. This would at least force new investors to acquire those rights instead of giving them a free ride on our backs via a discounted placing. The practical deficiency in this approach is the inevitable scale of any such rights issue - 10 or 20 for 1 could be needed. However good the prospect, few holders would be prepared to stump up that amount. The likely result in a market flooded by the sale of unexercised rights would be not so dissimilar to a placing and probably at a higher administrative cost. In this scenario, the current share price represents little more than option money.

In the event that by some means CC pulls off the trick of getting the main financing on a minimal dilution basis there would appear to be very considerable upside in the share price but perhaps subject to potentially large volatility introduced by the gearing factor.

Given the circumstances, it does not surprise me that it is all taking a long time to negotiate.

[justthemoney] 23/12/2014 17:39

I'll top up at 1p and let it go either way

[kirk 6] 23/12/2014 17:21

Phoned them today with following information: obviously they can't give insider information out however finance discussions still in advanced talks and Minera are keen on getting the very best deal for company and shareholders. They still have the 100-30m fall back offer if necessary.The project is viable down to a very low gold price Etc

[hutch_pod] 23/12/2014 09:17

Buchanan Financial Communications
Bobby Morse, Senior Partner
Louise Mason, Associate Director
Gordon Poole, Account Director
[phone]

Just from the website.

[kirk 6] 23/12/2014 09:10

Going to try and contact the company today has anyone got the correct contact details for PI's?

[haydock] 23/12/2014 08:45

In this climate a fish on the hook is big news.

[brian boru] 23/12/2014 07:40

It would help calm nerves if he gave a bit more info why the discussions are still ongoing when they were expected to conclude months ago........will the market react kindly? I doubt it.............

...........

"The Ollachea Gold Project has all the key permits in place to commence development. Project financing discussions are
at an advanced stage and we look forward to bringing these discussions to conclusion during the first quarter of 2015,"
stated Courtney Chamberlain, Executive Chairman.

As at 30 September 2014, the Company had a cash balance of $5.4 million and, as announced on 12 November 2014, the
Company has sufficient funds together with the expected cash flows from Corihuarmi to meet its cash requirements to the
end of the first quarter of 2015 by which time the Company expects to have project financing in place for its flagship
Ollachea Gold Project.

With project financing in place during the first quarter of 2015, the Company expects production to commence at Ollachea
during the fourth quarter of 2016.

[haydock] 19/12/2014 08:52

Bikwik:
Best post I have read on the bb's for weeks.
Most interesting of course we all hope you have it right.
Personally I watch as a basic beginner the Japanese Cloud system

hxxp://www.ichimokutrader.com/

This can give fairly early Bull signals, but is dead as a dodo for many at the moment,& Mirl of course.

I will be watching & holding.
Cheers Hay, missing old Fingers these days !

[bikwik] 19/12/2014 08:43

Further on the cycle of 3, which Minera now looks to be virtually at the end of:

I know its a spectacular chart but it does emphasise the point.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[gosoftly7] 19/12/2014 07:24

My apologies, Hutch_Pod is correct, Macquarie debt is USD 30 million, and the finance available from Macquarie is USD 100 million allowing USD 70 million of new financing.

[bikwik] 18/12/2014 23:17

Oops, posted twice

[bikwik] 18/12/2014 23:16

If I am right about this and gold goes into a major bull phase for most if not all of 2015,(if US1131 holds that will be 34 Fibonacci years from the 1980 peak confirming a major low point), and Minera gets its financing then this share is going to be a top performer in 2015.....along with most other gold stocks of course.

[bikwik] 18/12/2014 23:16

If I am right about this and gold goes into a major bull phase for most if not all of 2015,(if US1131 holds that will be 34 Fibonacci years from the 1980 peak confirming a major low point), and Minera gets its financing then this share is going to be a top performer in 2015.....along with most other gold stocks of course.

[bikwik] 18/12/2014 23:10

Well, look thanks Bam Bam, thanks for teaching me how to suck eggs. But if you look at the weekly time periods on the chart, each one is followed by a reversal in trend and in most cases significant. I have been observing these for...hmm....maybe 20 years now.

Look I may be wrong so if I am, ce la vie. However, given that a number of technical aspects appear to be coming together pretty much now I thought it was worthy of communicating said observations.

Something I havn't mentioned, which I think will also have a bearing on future price movements is this: Since the mid 2013 low, when I added in the start of the first time period there have been three distinct up and down cycles. The last of which we are now in and to boot we are pretty close to the end of that last cycle. I can say that because there is a clear 5 wave Elliott wave pattern.

The point about cycles of three as I call them is that once the third cycle is over you can guarantee there will be a decisive move to follow. You don't always know what the dominant direction will be, but in this case given that there are 5 waves down in an Elliott wave pattern, the next pattern will either be an A-B-C (up-down-up) or a 5 wave bull pattern. If I am wrong and the next major move is down (which means Minera is going bust) then once again ce la vie. Conventional three cycle patterns include HEAD AND SHOULDERS and TRIPLE TOPS AND BOTTOMS. In these cases decisive moves usually occur.

[hutch_pod] 18/12/2014 21:26

Gosoftly I think the debt is currently $30m but they can extend to a net $70m if the project goes ahead.

Bikwik I love charts but hadn't seen the fib sequence laid out before, only retracement levels. The Elliot wave makes much more sense but I guess fully subject to financing?

[bam bam rubble] 18/12/2014 20:17

Fibonacci numbers (1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34) are by definition a sequence so should
only be applied elsewhere in that sequence i.e. tracking a trend over 8 wks, 13

The chart above is a nonsense as the numbers are out of sequence (21, 13, 5, 13)

[bikwik] 18/12/2014 19:23

Any one else like to have a bash while we are at it, get it all out in the open before sherry and mince pies!

[gosoftly7] 18/12/2014 19:16

Debt owed to Macquarie USD 70 million

[bikwik] 18/12/2014 19:13

Bam old chum, I havn't 'forced' the numbers to fit. I have made an observation. Mind you I can tell you are a non believer, which is fine as everyone is entitled to their view.

[bikwik] 18/12/2014 19:06

Just one more chart.....groan....but you might find this interesting too (assuming you found the first one interesting).


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


This shows, in daily candlestick format, the last decline, which fits the five wave down Elliott Wave sequence well. The five waves are labelled. Wave 2 and 4 being corrective waves, these showing alternation, which is what RN Elliott observed all those years ago (wave 2 is simple while wave 4 is complex, or vice versa). Also, wave three can never be the shortest wave, which as you can see from the chart it is not. Also the 5 waves fit within a parallel trend channel. Wave 5 as you can see has just touched the lower trend channel line and is thus now mature and ready to be followed by an advance. So far it hasn't happened, but as I said Minera needs to be watched closely. Sometimes you get a 'throw over of wave 5 before the advance begins.

What I mean by that is that the trend channel is broken, albeit briefly, before the price snaps back the other way. It doesn't have to but sometimes it does. Finally, I have pasted Bollinger bands on the chart. So here too, the price has touched the lower boundary and is thus 'ready' to move back towards the upper boundary line. Obviously it could just go sideways to eventually meet it, or perhaps as seems more likely, given that we are at or very near the end of a fifth wave, it will rise to meet it. Currently it is around 5p. Well, as ever, time will tell.

Merry Christmas everyone, and best of luck for 2015. BIK