Minera Share Discussion Threads

[bam bam rubble] 18/12/2014 19:04

Fibonacci number sequence, 13, 21, 35, 55
this week is the 21st week from the July high and 55 weeks from the 2013 low
So this should turn out to be a low for Minera.

It doesn't really count if you have to force the numbers to fit the pattern.

July high was one day short of 23 weeks ago
2013 low was one day more than 55 weeks ago

[bikwik] 18/12/2014 18:43

Thanks guys for all the fundamental stuff about Minera which is I am sure accurate and of interest to all who read this BB thread.

Typically though, and as one would expect, if we are at the bottom, or very close to it, then sentiment will have to be bad as well as there being a general lack of interest in the shares. Also, the vast majority will have sold out by now. As yet there is, supposedly, no sign that this share is ready to begin a new bull phase. While I agree that this appears to be the case on the surface, I am of the opinion that this share will from now on be one to keep a very close eye on for any bullish price movement, RNS wise or for any other reason.

I have posted another chart, yes I know..... another one, but if anyone takes a little time to take in the facts as shown, then maybe at least a few of you will see where I am coming from, so to speak.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


Fibonacci time periods are often seen in price charts, either from low to high or low to low or high to high. They can work for any chart, eg, FX, Commodity, Stock, indices etc and for different chart periods, i.e minute, hourly, daily, weekly (as in MIRL'S case), monthly etc. Take Gold for example. Based on the low occurring in 2001 (US$253)...that was 21 years from the 1980 high. Also the 1983 high was 3 years from 1980, the 1985 low was 5 years from 1980, the high in 1987 was in December so within 1 month of being 8 years from the January 1980 high. The 1993 low was 13 years from the 1980 peak. Lastly, and perhaps of most interest to anyone who looks at the Gold market, is the fact that gold posted a low on the 7th November 2014 and has since rallied strongly from that low...34 years from the 1980 peak. All these lows and highs were Fibonacci numbers.

Anyway, back to Minera and you should see that this week is the 21st week from the July high which is also 55 weeks from the 2013 low. So, this should turn out to be a low for Minera. Could it be wrong, sure it could, but in my view this Fibonacci "mumbo jumbo" does work a lot of the time. And with sentiment so bad it would appear to have "fundamentals on its side, if you get my drift.

[bam bam rubble] 15/12/2014 14:16

Hutch, the quarterlies mention it (usually buried in the smallprint near the end)

$15,609,000 due in shares (at 5-day VWAP) secured against the Ollachea tenements.
There's also £1 million in interest charges payable between now and the due date.

The way it's constructed the vendor could actually increase the number of shares
they'll receive by selling down in the pricing period to lower the 5-day average.
They currently have a 19% holding with the lock-in on those ending next month.

[kirk 6] 15/12/2014 13:00

over 1m volume!

[hutch_pod] 15/12/2014 11:04

Thanks for laying it out BBR.

I simplistically focused on the Macquarie $30m debt as (still) cannot dig out the deferred shares reference.

[kirk 6] 15/12/2014 10:04

market makers only stock now. Means room for less manipulation but less tradable on DMA.

[bam bam rubble] 14/12/2014 23:14

kirk6, it's still a factor as the lower the share price goes the more ownership they have

At 10p, MIRL's enterprise value was £45m with ordinary equity holders in control
ordinary shareholders 51%
deferred shares (£9m) 20%
net debt holder(£13m) 29%

At 1p the enterprise value would be £25m with control having passed to creditors
ordinary shareholders 10%
deferred shares (£9m) 37%
net debt holder(£13m) 53%

[hutch_pod] 14/12/2014 22:16

Well at 10p, the equity was still only worth £20m ish. Surely lending is more about the quality of the future cash flows? Although appreciate the £8m point.

[justthemoney] 14/12/2014 22:01

I'm a holder here (unfortunately). Have seen this before. The company will survive however current ORD shareholders are set to loose everything. Somebody else will purchase the debt and pay a nominal £1 for the company after it goes into admin. The company will recapitalise with the fresh money and either go private or refloat. This is the most likely scenario after allowing the share price to collapse to such low levels. No lender will lend £120m to a company worth £8m, it doesn't work that way. I'm afraid kiss goodbye to your money here. I'll hold till the end as its only 10% of my portfolio but honestly it is very unlikely for this one to come out good. May be a merger is the only hope to salvage current shareholders equity. IMO

[kirk 6] 14/12/2014 21:59

18 months away? So not really a consideration now surely?

[hutch_pod] 14/12/2014 19:37

Thanks Bam Bam - I can see the 231m shares, unsure why Stocko calculates market cap at £8.48m.

I totally missed the deferred shares. Do you recall when roughly that was notified? And can I ask why it would add to the valuation - i would normally think additional shares are dilutive..

[bam bam rubble] 14/12/2014 16:53

Including equity and debt it's in the region of £30 million

existing equity: £7.6m (231,135,028 shares @3.28p)
Deferred shares: £9.0m (to be issued in 18 months)
Net debt approx.£13.0m
Total valuation £29.6m

[hutch_pod] 14/12/2014 15:14

£8.48m at 3.28p according to stocko pedia

[kirk 6] 14/12/2014 14:51

Is the mkp not 4.9m as advfn suggests?

[hutch_pod] 13/12/2014 11:27

Agree greenrookie, with a market cap of £8m ish and a post tax NPV of $135m (10%, 1300 gold), a placing of £50m leaves little value unless gold enters the long awaited bull market.

[kirk 6] 13/12/2014 10:23

Won't go bust pretty sure of that they have got a potential $70m that could be realised. The advanced talks with other parties is what we need clarification for. Is there a contact email address to ask the company. The one on the website hasn't worked

[hazl] 13/12/2014 10:05

Thanks bam bam r.
Lets face it with the s.cap index suffering across the board, miners smashed, double whammy.
The certain thing,though, is that stock prices go through their cycles and will change again at some point.
It's just a waiting game.
The main thing to avoid is going into anything that is going to go bust and hopefully this isn't in that category!

[greenrookie] 13/12/2014 08:24

They're going to struggle with a placing in terms of offering a discount at the current SP; a placing would have to be at below 2.5p to be attractive and, if they needed to raise £50m that's going to be at least a couple of billion shares.

They'd have been better off doing the placing at 8 or 9p a few months ago.

[kirk 6] 13/12/2014 08:14

Just trying to speculate why the price has taken such a hit and market makers such as wins peel and cfep are always offering 100,000 and 200,000 shares. There is obviously some stock floating round and Bambam when he mentioned placing is probably right hence the mm's trying to offload. Once the finance is secured here however the upside is literally massive based on such low costs to extract gold. Could be another fitbug and more

[greenrookie] 13/12/2014 08:08

Thanks for the posts Kirk

[kirk 6] 13/12/2014 07:56

Site costs for the Ollachea Gold project Are only $507 that will be some profit for minera

[kirk 6] 13/12/2014 07:50

Article a month old

[kirk 6] 13/12/2014 07:49

City firm Canaccord repeated a 'speculative buy' stance on gold miner Minera (LON:MIRL) after it posted third quarter results, in which it said steady progress was made on a number of fronts.The firm increased production guidance for full year 2014 to 22,000 ounces from 21,000 ounces previously, partly due to the higher throughput seen at its Corihuarmi mine in PeruCost cutting measures have also led to the firm trimming cost guidance for the year from US$820 an ounce to US$775 per ounce.The mine saw around 5,510 ounces of the yellow metal produced in the three months to end September, while 5,715 ounces was sold."Cash costs came in well below our expectations at US$704/oz on better grades and the impact of a cost cutting drive at the company," noted Cannaccord analyst Dmitry Kalachev.Meanwhile, the firm said discussions on funding the flagship Ollachea project in Peru, were now "well advanced" and the firm expects to advise the market shortly on the results."This provides the main catalyst and we note management comments that it is financed well into Q1 2015," said the analyst, who added securing this financing was the main risk to the broker's view.It notes that Minera is currently trading at 0.19 times the broker's current gold price forward price level using a 5% discount rate. "This compares to our global mid/small cap peer group ratio of 0.78x. We retain our Speculative Buy and 14p NAV derived target price."Minera shares eased 2.17% to 4.50p.

[hutch_pod] 13/12/2014 00:46

Well Bam Bam R the share price definitely reflects that kind of outcome. I'm still optimistic for a better result.

[bam bam rubble] 12/12/2014 22:23

My guess, a steady range-bound retrace from $1250-1050
then a bounce back up from $1000 in three years or so