Minco Share Discussion Threads

[lendmeafiver] 29/9/2016 10:22

Just tried a couple of dummy trades of 200,000 shares, can sell automatically, can't buy without placing a limit order, as a result I would just ignore the share price for now it's just a reflection of people buying and selling small volumes, it's not about value in MIOs assets in any way.

[lendmeafiver] 29/9/2016 10:00

A couple of small buys and the ask is back up to 1.35p.

Interesting zinc comments from Kearney, I think the MIO drivers being gold in the short term and zinc in the medium is a good place to be.

I believe there isn't an exact industry definition of NSR but essentially it is net of transport and refining costs understandably.

I just think the Dalradian comments about the fact there will be an announcement about what they will be doing with their spare cash might be a clue, maybe I'm being overly optimistic, its what I would be doing if I was them, take the NSR off the table whilst MIOs share price is languishing at 1.35p, £6m market cap, how could the board turn down a half decent offer! Wait too long and the price will only rise.

[bodgit] 29/9/2016 09:18

I confess my lack of knowledge on NSR. Can anyone help me please with the following questions:

1) Is there an industry standard definition of how an NSR is calculated?

2) If there is, where can I read up on what an NSR contains, particularly the treatment of capital costs/amortisation?

3) If there is no industry standard definition, has the Minco 2% NSR on Dalradian production been defined anywhere for public consumption?

TIA and good luck all.

[ardtole] 29/9/2016 08:23

You could be right jdgeus, when dalradian announced an increase of "54% more gold than predicted" on 14 sept, there was no positive reaction to minco share price

Yet when Minco announce they are going to drill six holes in county westmeath the share price rises by 15%. Strange.

[bodgit] 29/9/2016 07:55

An RNS for Anglesey Mining has the extract below which has relevance for us.

"At the shareholder’s annual meeting held today, the Chairman, John Kearney, made a presentation outlining the company’s plans for the coming year and his expectation that the price of zinc will move significantly higher in the near future, due to reduced production worldwide from mine closures and forecasts of increases in demand, and that these higher zinc prices would continue for a number of years."

[jdgeus75] 29/9/2016 07:26

I personally think that Dalradian's feasibility study will not have a direct impact on the Minco share price (good or bad). I may be wrong. I think it will only get reflected in the share price when we get closer to production (cash flow) or sell the NSR to another company.

[lendmeafiver] 28/9/2016 19:02

I do agree, it is rediculous to be at £6m market cap at this stage.

Even more irritating when you look at Dalradians market cap rising and in the hundreds of million compared to mio's poultry valuation. Given mio's link to that project we should have seen some uplift already to reflect that likely gain.

I find myself getting over the irritation by accumulating more stock, I see very little downside here and yet has a number of clear reasons why you could get up one morning and see an RNS that could result in the share price doubling immediately.

It's all about timing with this sort of stock but I sense we are not far away from NSR related news esp with Dalradian sitting on spare cash.

[ardtole] 28/9/2016 18:31

I can understand sm9's frustration, we have had a few false dawns over the last 18-24 months and I am in a similar situation myself.

The feasibility study from Dalradian is due, possibly as early as the next 2/3 weeks. The first drill results from Moate probably due within two months. Some news regarding xtierra's future likely before the agm and news on the buchans/lundberg project due soon as well.
Obviously dalradian is the big news but a decent rns from pennines i think approx 3 years ago had the share price spike at 5.5p, funny share this one.

[ardtole] 28/9/2016 18:30

I can understand sm9's frustration, we have had a few false dawns over the last 18-24 months and I am in a similar situation myself.

The feasibility study from Dalradian is due, possibly as early as the next 2/3 weeks. The first drill results from Moate probably due within two months. Some news regarding xtierra's future likely before the agm and news on the buchans/lundberg project due soon as well.
Obviously dalradian is the big news but a decent rns from pennines i think approx 3 years ago had the share price spike at 5.5p, funny share this one.

[lendmeafiver] 28/9/2016 17:37

£6m market cap, Dalradian about to kick off, worth x2 the market cap on its own, zinc price steadily rising, anything at moate would be a super bonus.

[lendmeafiver] 28/9/2016 16:28

And the 350,000

[lendmeafiver] 28/9/2016 16:14

It's even classified as a sell on the trades page, it's not, it's one of mine

[lendmeafiver] 28/9/2016 16:12

Thanks to whoever sold out today for giving me the opportunity to buy back 325,000 of that I sold a couple of weeks ago at a bargain price of 1.27, appreciated.

[sm9] 28/9/2016 11:05

Gut feeling heading straight back down!, hope not but until we have spades in the ground from daldarian which is aleast a good few years away, we will have to put in top drawer and go to sleep....

[jdgeus75] 28/9/2016 11:04

@sm9
Directors are not getting paid. They have made the decision not to take salary.
Minco is not as lean as some Canadian companies are, but the cash burn rate has been brought down significantly.

Minco has not done anything for investors in the recent years. So you have to bet on the value of their assets and have a lot of patience.

You can sell right now. You will get 1.3p. You also should sell if you have no time to wait or if you believe there are companies with more upside. In that case there is no reason to hold on to your shares. Rr if you think Minco value is lower than the current market cap. But if you have time and you believe in the value you should wait. It is that simple.

[lendmeafiver] 28/9/2016 10:24

The Dalradian project is significantly advanced now so I don't think it's going to be just continued ground hog day for you sm9, it is the nature of miners and oilers that you can get years of nothing followed by a flurry of news.

Also consider that the short term commodity price that's important to MIO is only really gold at the moment, a good place to be. Zinc is doing well in the background ready for the longer term plays once Dalradian has played out.

Jd's NSR valuation is probably on the conservative side also, £12m to £15m sterling is my view.

I'm hoping to buy back the shares I was forced to sell (see earlier post) in the next couple of weeks so perversely am pleased to see a bit of weakness, I can imagine the ridiculous way the share price reacts here due to the liquidity issue raised above, that if the moate drill doesn't come back with a 10 foot drill core of pure refined zinc then the price will fall! So I will be watching closely for another buying opportunity, anything at or below £8m market cap will I'm sure prove to be a bargain within 12 months.

[sm9] 28/9/2016 09:49

Yes I agree, but we have been saying this for a long time, my point is its always next year or few years away...the same thing was said a few years ago and still no improvement in share price, just seems like going round n circles with no improvments while the directors keep getting paid big wages, If could sell i would, but i owes me alot more than the current share price, so have choice but to hold. I bought in when it was alot higher based on some of the same scenarios but nothing has improved and get the same feeling it will be like this in 2-3years time, if not alot lower...

[jdgeus75] 28/9/2016 09:20

@sm9 There is almost no liquidity in the market. So a few buyers will push it up to 1.7p. A few sellers push it down to 1.3p. Don't let the daily market price fool you and make your own decision if the market price represents the value of the company or not.

If you think the company's assets are worth more than the market price, buy more. If you think the company's assets are worth less than the market price, sell your shares.

If the value is really there, it will rerate at one point. I do not consider Xtierra real value for example until it gets taken out. This is because I have my doubts about the quality of the deposit. If im wrong, we will get the market price paid (Minco's market share is currently worth approx C$ 1.6 million). I would be very happy if Minco can sell those shares for C$ 1.6 million.

But I do consider the NSR real value. I think is worth at least USD 15M. So I think we are undervalued on that one.

I think Minco's other projects represent a lot of leverage. Those assets are like an out of the money option that has no expiry date. If the zinc prices continue to rise those zinc projects can become very valuable in a couple of year. If at any time in the future demand for electrolytic manganese metal starts to increase, that Woodstock project may be worth hundreds of millions.

And last but not least, Minco has some exploration projects that are difficult to value. The upcoming drill results can make a big difference or can be disappointing and not add any value.

So to summarize: I recommend not to focus on the daily share price changes but ask yourself the question if Minco's assets are worth more or less than ~GBP 6 or 7 million, and what is the upside and downside based on your analysis.

[sm9] 23/9/2016 14:59

Yes you would have thought so, but it is clearly not reflected in the share price for some reason, just hope we dont get stiched up again, just get a gut feeling when things are taking along time usuallly theres something not right in the background...just like the propose sale to the chinese that they had but all of a sudden its not happening and on the back burner for how long nobody know (years probably)..

[thecynical1] 23/9/2016 14:30

the NSR must be worth more than that, surely?

[ardtole] 23/9/2016 13:31

Where did you see the £5m rumour bid, for Dalradian nsr?

[sm9] 23/9/2016 13:14

To be honest in the short term its all about Daldirian, if not i can only see it dropping back to 1p (i hope not as cant take anymore..lol) i really do hope the 5 million that was branded about is just a rumuor, but judgeing by the price , there might be no smoke without fire, we as shareholders have been stiched up before by our so called board members, i hope not again...

[ardtole] 23/9/2016 11:22

Im hoping the feasability study from dalradian will nudge us upwards, news due on buchans/lundberg, moate and possibly xtierra by the end of year also.