Metals Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[hutch_pod] 20/5/2015 10:20

Hi LB, working backwards it looks like Allenby used c35% for the tax rate. (96,700*(1200-474)*.65 = $45m )

Interesting comparator. So Medusa is currently on a PE of 3.64 according to Google, but i'm not at all up to speed with its situation.

[holism] 20/5/2015 08:27

LB, I remember Beardsworth saying the mine could be the size of the City of London, so yes at present 11 year mine life but exploration potential. Dividends and potential corporate activity too.

[lord badger] 19/5/2015 22:45

A real toughie especially given the uncertainty over taxation. I wonder which regime the Allenby figures were based on. I've been looking at Medusa as a comparable, although are two companies ever truly comparable? I'm not sure what Medusa's extraction costs are; a fair bit more expensive I expect.

Also, with no detail on the viability of other EPs and no solid financials on unproven resource, technically speaking, MTL has a shelf life of only 11 years.

Hopefully the AGM on the 30th June will shed a little more light, especially on taxation.

[hutch_pod] 19/5/2015 17:14

Hi LB/all, I'm not sure if this has been covered, but what kind of PE range might MTL attract?

If earnings are say $45m per year, based on $1200 gold and 38% FCF margin, this implies 2p per share roughly.

[lord badger] 19/5/2015 15:50

It would appear the free float increased a little following that last big stock reshuffle - Baker Steel to Ruffer. Up 1.22% to 8.77% from 7.55%. That's an additional 16m shares.

[holism] 24/4/2015 08:05

Well I am still waiting not long now, but given the share price what do the major shareholders want out of the company?

[lord badger] 20/4/2015 16:06

Not exactly a profile raising piece, but a mention at least: hxxp://onforb.es/1D5KyCl

[lord badger] 19/4/2015 11:58

deuchar, the more news/comment/whispers the better. Let us know if you get any more detail on that annual yield figure; it could be a very interesting development. Let's hope Runruno is a profoundly deeper mine than we were expecting.

[deuchar] 18/4/2015 20:00

Lord badger I picked this up from a broker friend. I'm a new boy and your knowledge is profoundly deeper than mine. I've just started looking at it. Thanks for the info.

[lord badger] 18/4/2015 14:19

deuchar, that's a 20% uplift from the last Op Update! Was there any hint as to how this uplift has been achieved? If that is maintained over years 1-5 it equates to a 10% increase in the current mine life total output number.

Interestingly we haven't had a resource update since March 13 when Malilibeg South was upgraded to 7.55mt @ 1.4g/t from 3.5mt @ 1.7g/t. It would interesting to draw some conclusions from the various step-out drilling and sampling activities. There was some work looking at upgrading an area on the fringes on the main pit from inferred to probable (Aug 14) which delivered "strong results". Then there are the various activities at Malong/Burnt Tree, Tayab deep drilling, Magnetite Creek, Tulingan Creek and Cabocbocan, although Magnetite Creek, despite the great name, didn't look promising and Tulingan and Cabocbocan seem to have dropped off the more recent Op Updates. I also remember something about a deep vein which held some interest for underground mining.

Once we move into full production we're going to need something to maintain the momentum; either a flow of positive extension updates or greater detail on the company's other EPs.

[deuchar] 18/4/2015 09:13

I hear 120000 ozs per annum yielding net 70m dollars commencing later this year

[swizz] 16/4/2015 17:10

LB, Sorry I don't, we would need "chipperfrd" as it is his thread, he is still posting on the BB and hopefully he will spot your note....GL S

tb - Great spot and many thanks for posting.

[tombarr] 16/4/2015 14:48

I agree, I would never suggest such a thing.

[lord badger] 16/4/2015 14:29

tombarr, I've never heard anything so outrageous, financial organisations colluding to massage prices, shirley shome mishtake. Then again I have been living on Mars for the past few years.

[tombarr] 16/4/2015 13:24

Ruffer's 11-year Baker Steel gold partnership ends:



So, looking at the transactions, a big chunk effectively transferred from BS to Ruffer directly held. Far be it from me to say that a nice low "entry" point for Ruffer direct will reflect well upon their "new" directly managed fund if it "rebounds". And I wouldn't dream of saying that the share price might have been artificially depressed to make that happen. jus' sayin'. Hope this is useful.!

[lord badger] 16/4/2015 13:23

Actually, Baker Steel sold 36,000,000, which makes more sense but still leaves a big chunk of stock unaccounted for. Still possibly another RNS in the pipeline.

[lord badger] 16/4/2015 12:51

Swizz, do you have access privileges to add the SMA / Bolly chart to the header? It would be far more useful to folk than three price charts, one of which we could do without.

[lord badger] 16/4/2015 12:46

The two new RNS releases seem to lend weight to the theory that the huge trades over the past few days are no more than the shuffling of stock, which explains why a single trade representing 26% of the the free float / 1.9% of total stock in issue, didn't move the share price. Baker Steel sold 27,000,000 shares and Ruffer picked up 20,000,000. Based on the actual volumes traded it does suggest there may be other RNS releases in the pipeline.

I'd suggest this shuffling created an artificial low, perhaps for some convoluted tax purposes, which represented a great purchase / averaging down point, the likes of which we probably / hopefully won't see again.

IMHO

[swizz] 15/4/2015 16:31

Here is another, may be worth adding this one to the header?

[lord badger] 15/4/2015 16:28

You're a whiz, swizz!

[swizz] 15/4/2015 16:13

LB, Six month view as below.....GL S

[lord badger] 15/4/2015 16:03

I've no ideal how to embed them in posts, as some appear to be able to do, but MTL's volume chart looks extraordinary now!

[swizz] 15/4/2015 15:37

Bizarre, we now appear to be moving, so perhaps the multi million shuffling around is done......GL S

[lord badger] 15/4/2015 15:15

That's 40% of the free float traded in one day and the price hardly bats and eyelid, so to speak!

[swizz] 15/4/2015 14:32

More chunky trades, 27M and 10M.....GL S