Metals Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[davegk] 11/3/2015 23:55

From the RNS _ US $83 million debt facility agreement _ dated 28th of May 2014

“Additionally, FCF Minerals Corporation will hedge approximately 40% of the interest rate exposure under the Debt Facility and, subject to the gold price achieved, enter into a gold forward sales program representing a maximum of 35% of the annual forecast gold production over the term of the Debt Facility. It is currently envisaged that a program of approximately 90,000 – 105,000 ounces (or approximately 30% of gold production over the term of the Debt Facility) will be entered into by way of forward sales”

[hutch_pod] 10/3/2015 10:25

Thanks for confirming Rupert. Yes, a good hedge, and so more like 1/3 of the 1st 3 years / one year's worth.

[holism] 10/3/2015 09:23

Well in the money anyway. Yes difficult to know where this share price will end up. Presumably the Institutions will have a target in mind, as long term players 12% to 20% present value is probably where we are, but I haven't done any maths recently. The investment fundamentals have changed considerably since their attempt to take the company off market.

[rupert1] 09/3/2015 14:28

The Gold hedge price was estimated in post 566 at $1260. In terms of the 3 year hedge, in the Ops update last August it stated ...

"FCF has now entered into forward sales gold contracts totalling 90,000 ounces of gold to be delivered over 33 months with the first delivery due in early October 2015."

From my hazy, clearly overly optimistic memory I recalled 90,000 ounces pa, not in total. Apologies for the misrepresentation.

[lord badger] 06/3/2015 14:49

I've given up trying to work out or project the share price. I'm hoping for 10-13p at, well, some stage in the future. There are still a number of variables at play which could impact price / timing: the tax situation and it's impact on the bottom line; potential for Manilla port delays eluded to in the last Op Update; the huge block of shares held by one person and that person's as yet unknown exit strategy; impact of tiny free float on market activity; MTL's next strategic move; as yet unknown value of other EPs, etc.

MTL has been a roller coaster ride thus far and I can't see the ride ending any time soon. A little media exposure, aside from Proactive Investor and a blogger followed by one man and a dog, would be nice. You'd think someone would pick this up given how close we are to a living, breathing, working mine.

Rupert, could I ask were you got the info on the three year hedge? I've seen one year mentioned.

[holism] 06/3/2015 14:49

Presumably part of the funding package.

[hutch_pod] 06/3/2015 13:55

I humbly offer 15 Dec 2015 :)

Can I ask where they mention the hedged price? I looked a few times and could never find a $ figure.

[rupert1] 06/3/2015 13:13

We are on the final run in now. 4 months to go until commissioning starts, first gold in Q3 and ramp up production through the rest of the year. The first 3 years production is hedged at $1300 g/au.

This time last year my predictions were:

"8-9p as soon as the funding is confirmed.
15-20p this time next year if we get to the first gold pour.
My target is 25-30p depending on the performance of gold. "

Ok so I omitted a 50% price drop as soon as it hit 8.5p and a 9 month construction delay, but nonetheless I am sticking to my guns. There aren't many of us on this thread, so let's have a sweep on when the share price will hit 10p.

I'll stick my neck out and say 31st August....... 2015.

[hutch_pod] 23/2/2015 09:31

Solid operational update. Spend looks under control - there seems to be $8m of taxes previously exempt under FTAA to deal with/add into the ongoing challenge, but covered within contingency. I guess while commissioning is still within Q2 2015 (June now), full production ramps up across H2, not Q3?

[hutch_pod] 17/2/2015 13:51

cheers. Not long til news.

[lord badger] 17/2/2015 13:37

Barclays & iii. Buy side market size appears to be relaxing again - 140,000. Another sell order being filled possibly.

[hutch_pod] 17/2/2015 12:47

Thanks LB. Can I ask which broker you use out of interest?

[lord badger] 17/2/2015 11:20

The 500,000 deal yesterday must have been a sell. The buy side market size relaxed as the order was filled. Market size on both buy and sell now back to their normal tiny amounts.

[lord badger] 16/2/2015 15:47

The spread has tightened up massively. Last few weeks .75p now .25p. All I have on the 500,000 trade is that publication was delayed. On the surface it was a sell but given the price has been moving up or down +/- 3% on trades of a few hundred pounds you'd expect a trade of £22,500 to have greater impact...currently down 2.56% depending on were you look.

[lord badger] 16/2/2015 15:10

Sell side currently limited to around 30,000 shares. It would be quite extreme, buying at the bid price, but there seems to be little rhyme or reason to MTL price movements - buy and it goes down sell and it goes up! BTW, last week the actual prices were more closely mirroring the bid and ask prices. I think it was the week before last that buys were coming through at below the mid price. Seems things were firming up.

On the op update, the web site gallery pictures for January still haven't appeared - presumably they'll be updated them when the op update comes through.

[hutch_pod] 16/2/2015 14:04

Interesting. I don't think I can tell the buy market size with HL without trying to get a quote. I certainly can't get even 20,000 right now.

Maybe the 500,000 were acquired on behalf of someone who isn't selling? But given how you could previously buy cheaper than the mid, it's plausible that the 500k was a buy and now the live price has lifted to 4.75. Btw, what are sell trades currently limited to?

Looks like CFEP is pulling the ask down to 4.75, as the others are mainly 6p aside from WINS at 5.5.

[lord badger] 16/2/2015 13:29

An interesting 500,000 sell, or what appears to be a sell, went through this morning. Worrying given the imminent release of a op update, but intriguing given the impact it's had on the market size available to online trades - not a terribly scientific metric, but an interesting one nonetheless . Over the past few weeks my online broker has been accepting buy trades on MTL of anything up to 320,000 shares but limiting sell trades to around 40,000 shares; sometimes as low as 15,000. The buy side market size has now contracted from 320,000 to around 10,000 shares, which doesn't seem logical given that someone has presumably just sold 500,000 shares; I'd expect the precise opposite. Based on the buy side market size, rather than the purchase price relative to the mid price, logic would dictate that the 500,000 trade was a buy. In which case a trade of this size so close to an op update would look to be a positive sign.

Any thoughts anyone?

[hutch_pod] 05/2/2015 13:46

I emailed MTL around an update, and they said one should be out within 2 weeks.

[lord badger] 02/2/2015 13:05

Interestingly, or not, as your perspective may be, the Capaz, Puray and Worldwide EP overviews have disappeared from the main navigation on the Metals Ex web site. Either the web developers have made a mistake or someone has told them to take them down, the latter leading to the question: Why?

If someone did ask for them to be removed, they didn't do a very good job as they're still included in the site map navigation link at the bottom of the page. It's probably a mistake and I'm jumping at conspiracy shadows.

I appreciate that the company if focused on Runruno, but an update - date submitted, one-line status, and possible grant date - on these various other EPs is well overdue. I can't seem to find mention of them for over a year. In fact, I don't seem to remember six additional EP applications. Have a couple of these crept in without fanfare?

[holism] 02/2/2015 11:56

Yes with so few followers of the share its difficult to see any short term share price movement. However when corporate action looks likely I am sure the share price will go North. if eventually we get a 2p dividend I would be happy certainly for the time being anyway.

[hutch_pod] 27/1/2015 17:45

Well a few buyers would help.

[rupert1] 27/1/2015 16:55

With gold price strengthening, the dollar strengthening and first gold pour (whatever that means) due this year, it surprises me that the share price remains at the same level it was this time last year, pre funding and with the Writ of Kalikasan still pending.

It's almost as if someone wants to keep it low.

[lord badger] 22/1/2015 16:00

Ask price just dropped below the mid price!