Metals Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[hutch_pod] 22/1/2015 15:16

Apologies LB, updated for my (rather glaring) typo.

[holism] 22/1/2015 12:36

Hutch, I did look at it, NPV is best measure at the moment.Its bullish though. I invested in this years ago before Jonathan Beardsworth's tenure. The promise of increased bonanza reserves hasn't materialised but the quality of the team looks good.

[hutch_pod] 22/1/2015 11:30

Well i like the 12.5p share Allenby calculation as you can back into it. I understand they used key assumptions of:

$1300 gold
$474 LOM op costs/oz
96700 oz pa
35% tax
13% discount rate
10 year life of mine

And simply NPV / share.

[tombarr] 22/1/2015 11:29

The critical local issues are all resolved, i.e. the doubly failed speculative environmental writ and removal of artisan miners (happily dumping mercury and cyanide in the bushes and ditches no doubt, but that never got mentioned by environmental activists). It would seem that MTL have created an environmentally friendly, community responsible project, as far as mines go. That has to have a value on sale.

[holism] 22/1/2015 11:24

Is 12.5p per share the real deal? Most brokers over price, I always thought 20p was the target but I cant find my calculations which appear to be very far out.Corporate action is needed to get some liquidity but that's been an issue for quite some time.

[holism] 22/1/2015 11:08

MTL under the radar, the strength in POG augurs well. Are there any local issues unresolved?

[hutch_pod] 22/1/2015 10:51

Thanks LB. Yes it does sound like upside to the Allenby valuation should the tax rate resolve at sub 35%.

Also I guess the already low operating costs may drop from cheaper oil.

[lord badger] 20/1/2015 09:13

HP, I've nothing more on progress than the Op updates, the last two of which have stated "we're working on it" or words to that effect. I'm not sure if the detailed FTAA has been published but there is a top line in a release on the MTL web site: Investor Centre>Company News>2009>29/10/2009>FTAA awarded for Runruno project. Basically a tax holiday up to 5 years until they've recovered pre-operating expenses and investment.

[hutch_pod] 19/1/2015 22:53

Hi LB, I am not up to speed with the tax dispute. Are you aware of how it's progressing and what rate might apply if it goes in MTLs favour?

Yes some positive volume today. Winston view is always in my Google news alerts - I wish I could filter it out.

[scorpione] 19/1/2015 19:19

Thanks Lord B much appreciated.

[lord badger] 19/1/2015 18:43

Scorp, top of the righthand column - SEPT 2014 UK MINING DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS 68 PAGES. Some fairly decent volume today on nothing but a change of Directorship RNS and a note on Winston View about unusual MTL volume on Friday.

LB

[scorpione] 19/1/2015 17:53

I am unable to locate the report on their website can someone be a little more specific in how to find it please.

cheers

[lord badger] 19/1/2015 16:51

HP, I agree, an excellent report. I wonder if there is any additional upside if the current tax dispute is resolved in favour of the terms within the FTAA rather than those imposed by RMC17.I'm assuming here that the 35% tax regime mentioned in the report is that imposed by RMC17

[hutch_pod] 19/1/2015 09:22

Hi LB

I'm not sure the definition of First Gold beyond its literal translation I'm afraid.

On valuation, I found the Allenby Capital report from Sept 2014 useful. At $1300 gold, LOM op costs of $474/oz, they estimate this gives $78m EBIT per annum. After 35% tax and applying a relatively high 13.4% discount rate to adjust for Philippines fiscal risk, they come to 12.7p valuation per share.

The (excellent) report is still on the website I believe.

hxxp://www.allenbycapital.com/research.html

HP

[lord badger] 18/1/2015 15:05

Incredible that we're .88p above the share price when MTL floated on AIM in 2004.

[holism] 17/1/2015 22:30

This will deliver but what will it be worth?

[hutch_pod] 17/1/2015 20:52

Thanks LB. Ah I see you were referring to full production. 'First gold' is pitched for earlier. 'This will continue into Q2 2015 when the commissioning of the processing plant commences and first gold is expected.'

[hutch_pod] 17/1/2015 14:36

Surely some news soon, be good to see if first gold still expected before end of June? There's a mention above of Oct which confused me

[lord badger] 29/12/2014 18:48

With nothing of any import happening on here I might as well indulge in some aimless and really rather pointless musing on individual trades...interesting little 337k trade today, looked like a sell but obviously a cheap buy. Seems a chunky little buy with no news and a falling gold price. I wonder if the New Year stock pickers have anything in store for us. Would seem like ideal timing.

[tombarr] 29/12/2014 18:17

The above post is irrelevant to MTL. EUA being forced to give away half its future business for the price of a very nice car is doubly irrelevant. Jus' sayin', ladies.

[lord badger] 16/12/2014 11:28

I can comment on your hedge numbers tombarr as you lost me at "Booked derivative loss...". Your assumption of a likely quick sale would appear valid though. I expect the boys might be getting bored of this little toy fairly soon, although with London property prices maxing out I can't see many 1 Hyde Park style developments on the horizon.

Given that the hard numbers are in the open, a tilt at a valuation must be possible. Any takers?