Metal-tech Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 17/1/2011 20:54

I wish you well mudbath. But even luckyjonah has agreed that the moly side of the business is basically now a dead duck, so the huge upside is no longer there.

Which means you're now assessing MTT on its tungsten operations (plus potential on new technology etc).

I was looking for reassurance on tungsten trading, in particular on current monthly trading, and I communicated this to the company.

But all MTT felt able to say was that 2010 would be better than the truly awful 2009!

Luckyjonah hinted that perhaps the tungsten price was not so much an indicator as margins. This may be the case. But today's RNS gave no indication that MTT were anywhere near monthly or any break-even, let alone better.

And cash/liabilties will be increased by a $500k liability, plus perhaps more legal costs.

I put my MTT money into GBO today and was immediately rewarded with a 15% rise! GBO is now 13.75p, but a broker has today slapped a 103p valuation on it! It trades on a current year P/E of 2.9 and a historic P/E of 6.25, and is in a tech space which could attract a P/E of 20 or 30. Worth a look imo.

[greek islander] 17/1/2011 17:49

I decided to limit my short term risk by selling half my holding at a loss. Though the share price subsequently recovered I realise this is a stock I have not had much luck with. I shall put the rest away and forget about it.

[mudbath] 17/1/2011 14:21

Well I have been buying today as for me the announcement changed little.
Nor is buying as easy as one might have expected.
I would not be surprised if the share price soon started to motor,having cleared out the speculators.

[pugugly] 17/1/2011 13:27

Stegtego: u beat me to it. My prior experience with companies domiciled there has disappointed - They seem to be unable to capitalise on their advantages OR possibly the supposed advantages have not been all they were purported to be -now many times burnt avoid in principle for the preservation of The Principal .

[stegrego] 17/1/2011 13:02

This has to be one of the biggest wealth destroyers ever admitted to AIM.
If anyone made money on the way then well done!


Never trust Israeli companies - they always end up disappointing, with this being a serial disappointer.

[pomp circumstance] 17/1/2011 10:11

Its all in the name!!


luckyjonah

[rivaldo] 17/1/2011 09:54

After reconsidering I did the same Arthurly, but had quite a few more than that so was pleasantly surprised to be able to get them sold quickly today.

The downside should be limited as stressed previously, but it may drift back down to previous 7p-8p levels depending on the market etc. If so there should be time to buy back in to an extent if tungsten continues to strengthen.

I'm a little concerned reading between the lines that all they could say was that results would be merely a "reduced loss" compared to 2009. This is a long way from approaching profitability given that 2009 was so awful.

I've put a little more into GBO, a SaaS and mobile solutions group - historic P/E of 5 and current year P/E of just 2.6. The broker target price is 45p compared to the current 12p.

[arthurly] 17/1/2011 09:38

Only had a small number 11,500. Sold them at 15.5p (at least they one bagged). Chucked it into MOS which might multibag - mobile phone apps.

[greek islander] 17/1/2011 09:35

Disappointing announcement but the RNS has a lot to be positive about as well with the liklihood of increased revenue from increased production.
Maybe the response of the market is overplayed. Still looks pretty strong overall to me.
Not the best of timing for my return.

[petty officer birdseye] 17/1/2011 09:28

What can I say, Gutted. That'l teach me for pressing for that trading statement, I wish they hadn't have bothered coupled with that bit of news.
Whats that then another court case?! Surely this is Uzbekistan all over again. Wtf is going on? how is it that MTT have these supply agreements in place which seemingly can be renaged on at the drop of a hat?!
Well theres the re-rating, just in completly the wrong direction; LJ you might need to start a new thread, Metal-Tech, Tungsten recovery play :(

[yewtrees] 17/1/2011 09:15

I would like to think they are looking at further opportunities

[luckyjonah] 17/1/2011 08:46

Hi Hectorp, I think the market cap is so low that the Tungsten turnaround still supports holding at this price as the expansion and new R&D projects are still going to grow the company. Just disappointing to lose the obvious 10-bag potential. Everybody needs a 10-bag for a pillow.

[hectorp] 17/1/2011 08:41

Close watch, jonah, could get interesting again.

[luckyjonah] 17/1/2011 08:37

Very disappointing news re Shimtek - I guess that explains why Erdenet didn't seem willing to restart the supply for the Mongolian plant... makes more financial sense for them to bankrupt their own company, write off the debts, and supply someone else. Worth noting it was all kicked off by Mirzahi Bank, so much for the support of the banks having restructured the debt repayments within MTT.

Despite the significant Tungsten improvment I'm sure there will be a number of people leaving now the Moly part of the upside appears to have disappeared...

[the big fella] 17/1/2011 08:07

To be honest most here are for the MOLY upside so I would expect some sellers over the coming days.

[rivaldo] 17/1/2011 07:25

True, the upside to 250p has disappeared into the distance. Extremely disappointing.

Fortunately the m/cap is still only £7m, so a company producing $50m of tungsten sales at (hopefully) a profit this year would still be undervalued at that level. The problem derives from where further upside is coming from.

MTT have addressed this in the RNS by noting they're installing additional production equipment and looking at other co-production opportunities.

[scotswhaehae] 17/1/2011 07:18

errr maybe rivaldo but if mongolia is indeed a 'dead duck' then many will be strategically disappointed

to be fair to mtt it was outside shareholders who got excited about mongolia whereas the company was always cautious in the last year or two.

backburner/bottom drawer stuff at best once again?

[rivaldo] 17/1/2011 07:09

RNS out...

The good news : trading much better in H2. The outlook for this year appears particularly bullish.

The bad news : Mongolia appears a dead duck. The true write-off is only £0.3m (the accounting write-off may be a lot more), but once again MTT may find themselves having to chase compensation through the courts.

I'd hope the good trading news will take precedence because the market looks forward.

[rivaldo] 14/1/2011 12:25

Moly prices look like they're going to increase - mines in northern China had to reduce or halt output due to limited power supply:

[mister md] 13/1/2011 16:10

interesting that the shareprice gets marked down a bit despite a good few 10k buy trades yesterday and today. But hey, its only January and expecting more to the positive re-rating this year...

[greek islander] 12/1/2011 18:08

Riv

I am back in now at exactly the same price I sold out for originally. Guess I see this also as an all or nothing stock but with generating so many gains (like you have) from my mining and oil stocks I find myself with cash to play with and have fun. Not that I am investing carelessly or without careful research - currently it really seems very difficult to buy mining stocks and not make money. Famous last words?

[rivaldo] 12/1/2011 12:21

Well done chad - I never got any reply at all! Keep going and see what response you get.

I'm surprised to see a little profit-taking - in my view MTT is very much an all or nothing investment, since if it comes off the returns will be massive, whilst the downside "should" be reasonably limited. It's almost impossible to trade and get back in or out of easily, so to take profits of say 10%-20% on small packages seems a waste of time to me. Different strokes for different folks I suppose.

[luckyjonah] 12/1/2011 09:22

Even funnier that they cc'd "who are you?" to half the company :-) Maybe they are football fans...