Mereo Biopharma Share Discussion Threads

[wbjunior] 14/9/2007 17:29

eagle I believe they mean Hardman forecast of 20p.

This fall back started directly after the Preliminary announcement because imho the greedy Directors took to much off the table. The bonus payments would have put an extra 4p on the eps and that would have helped negate the fair value adjustment and could well have stopped the events we are seeing now and when Hardman suggest that the dividend policy of paying out less to support growth it makes you want to laugh after the bonus payments. Have a good weekend everyone looks like a long wait again.............................wbj

[eagle eye3] 14/9/2007 16:19

Am I correct to assume when the company say's online wih expectations they mean Hardmans numbers.

[fozzie] 14/9/2007 15:19

Marben, been away this week and just caught up with your post ref the agm, thanks a lot for writing that up for the thread. I am back underwater on this one now and probably looking to add to my position. It is an incredibly irritating share to hold this one. Patience is not my strong point but i have held for 5 years now and am losing money, that wasnt easy to do in these markets. I guess i am just going to have to buy more and stick them in the bottom drawer :o(

[g8ta] 14/9/2007 14:01

I see divis have arrived.

[polzeath] 14/9/2007 13:28

Don't really disagree with that, except some investors have possibly been slower to internalise the YSL loss than you think (IMHO). Watching with interest.

[marben100] 14/9/2007 13:20

polzeath,

When we say "old news", the YSL loss has been factored in since 2000, when it was first announced. I think the market and analysts have had plenty of time to digest it and it's implications. MPH are still confident of hitting 16p EPS this year, as at the AGM - and they have good visibility of this year's orders.

Mr Market is in headless chicken mode right now. As far as Marchpole is concerned, it's clear he'll need some decent published figures before he's prepared to buy. With all the banking turmoil, there may also be some forced sellers [investment banks needing to liquidate assets] depressing the price right now.

MPH investors may be in for a bumpy ride but AFAICS the value simply gets better and better.

For balance, though, the 2 year outlook appears worse to me than it did a couple of months ago. It looks like the UK consumer is more likely to draw their horns in than it did then, in the light of growing problems. To what extent this affects MPH remains to be seen. However if, as I expect, they do better than the typical retailer (due to high-end focus and international diversity), the investment case after the event will look even more attractive. It will probably take a couple of years though for this to become clear (or not).

Cheers,

Mark

[dan de lion] 14/9/2007 11:14

My take on this years mimimum income:

Greenmark £30 million
Moda £12 million
JCC sales/royalties £15 million
Ungaro £10 million
others £3 million

Total £70 million.

IMHO

[momentos] 14/9/2007 10:54

Axa went from 1.064m shares to 1.463m on 28/6 Price: c180


Barclays went from 2.15m to 2.2m on 28/6 (c180p) then to 2.84m on 12/7 (c.160p) then to 3.09m on 13/8 (c130p).

Now holding 11.36%

Now if those two thought it was good value up at 180p, I see no reason why they would have suddenly changed their mind. Especially Barclays, one of the shrewder investors out there who has added on the way down.

[corrientes] 14/9/2007 10:50

The wealthy being rodgered by the poor for a change and companies like MPH will unfortunately suffer.

[mick33] 14/9/2007 10:39

axa reducing by 0.5 %

[polzeath] 14/9/2007 10:37

There's often initally an element of 'willing suspension of disbelief' amongst holders - just read some of the posts here :-)

MPH could easily go from being v. overbought to v. oversold. Watching with interest.

[dan de lion] 14/9/2007 10:28

Yes, but that is old news and already priced in.

[polzeath] 13/9/2007 20:21

Losing YSL was pretty horrendous...

[traidemark] 13/9/2007 18:14

almost a years worth of very strong support at the 100p-120p mark ..... only horrendous news would push the share price through that barracade

[wbjunior] 13/9/2007 17:05

FDH spot on with your analysis of the situation, and Tufty I have to agree with you should have heeded your advice. Back again when these hit £3.00.................cu soon lol.............................wbj

[eagle eye3] 13/9/2007 16:48

I remember kurt geiger being mentioned before.
nice to see if the company has bought in the morning

[marben100] 13/9/2007 16:40

FDH, thanks for the heads-up. Well I hope my guesswork has laid plenty of false trails :0). As you say, patience is certainly required here. Like you, I like MPH/MMs strategy and execution too. Let's just hope they don't come a cropper.

[fardistanthills] 13/9/2007 16:33

In weak markets like these 'glass half empty' is the ruling sentiment. So a retail company like Marchpole - performing solidly in a difficult market, in the midst of a transformation, looking to acquire but with the benefits of change hard to see yet and may be a year or so away - is regarded as not worth a look. Not worth a look, when money is being taken off the table, translates to get out, much the same as avoid. There will certainly be funds and PIs that take this line, have suddenly become much more risk averse, whose horizons have shortened, and want out.

But MPH, as has been said over and over on this board, has great potential and is IMO definitely one that will handsomely reward the patient investor; the story has not changed - everything coming out of the company recently is pretty impressive. And although there may be set backs to come, the line they are taking in general - their strategy - and their delivery, both seem pretty smart to me.

It is just that the benefits are all to much in the future for Mr Market in his present depressed mood. So I have to agree with you wbj, the wait can be damn frustrating, if not at times bloody disillusioning. It's a grim case of 'keep ya chin up' and 'keep marchin on' with Marchpole. FDH

[tuftymatt] 13/9/2007 16:22

Hi WBJ,

If there is one thing you should have learned over the past 3 years or so it is to never expect MPH to follow the rule book.

After the bashing you have had in the past with this one it does surprise me you did not cash in when it was around 180p and spread your cash around a bit. From the limited knowledge I now have of this share having been away for a while I do feel with MM at the helm this will have to produce some outstanding deals and figures to move beyond its previous highs.

By the way where is lex? and also the garage is now earning £300pw from the Polaks and they do all of Mrs Tuftys cleaning too.......LOL

[deucetoace] 13/9/2007 13:36

The lack of reaction after a solid AGM statement surprises me slightly. The retail environment isn't great granted but the AGM statement should have allayed any fears. I'm probably looking at something that isn't there but if they are going to make a significant acquisition and it would need a rights issue then there would be no surprise that the price is reacting as it is.

Perhaps more straightforwardly the idea of an acquisition is itself depressing the price as buying retail in this market is not looked on with favour. Given Mr Morris's track record this might be a little surprising.

[fardistanthills] 13/9/2007 12:34

Marben, as I recall and I may be wrong, Harold Tillman was a former business associate of MM of many years standing. When MPH originally floated, HT sold out of what had been a joint investment. Since then, though separately, they have both maintained their involvement in the rag-trade, MM with his successful and expanding role in MPH and HT privately in ways which I do not presume to understand. Both with extensive connections, they are potentially therefore competing investors, competing for rag-trade assets, brands, chains, etc. - MM using MPH as his investment vehicle and HT on his own account. This is all speculation of course! However, I guess what nardelli is suggesting is that it is not in the best interests of MPH shareholders to try to second guess MM's purchase / acquisition intentions or indeed disclose what has been said off the record. Such speculation or disclosure may tempt HT to barge in and screw things up? On past performance though, I suspect this board does not often get near to knowing what MM will do next! Indeed perhaps because much of the past speculation seems to have been somewhat wide of the mark, although good fun, any false trails that can be laid may actually help MPH by confusing HT? All IMVHO and a bit pie in the sky. Talking of which, I must get off to the chippy, FDH.

[marben100] 12/9/2007 23:16

nardelli,

Who's tillman? If you think I should delete any of my posts just tell me which ones and I'll gladly do so.

Heads up appreciated. Sometimes speculation on BBs can be dangerous.

Thanks,

Mark

[nardelli] 12/9/2007 13:03

should not tip that info here guys, when something got mentioned last year tillman went after it, and screwed it up.......
just assume MM is upto something