Mereo Biopharma Share Discussion Threads

[kneath] 16/7/2007 12:42

wbj - what's the start to the week like; where you off and what time you back?

[lex1000] 16/7/2007 12:33

MPH looks set on mirroring CCT.Drop down to 145p-150p and rise back up to 180p.No science,just repeating a previous observation.

[dan de lion] 16/7/2007 10:16

It`s getting like the BBC for repeats.

[skintvestor] 16/7/2007 10:12

You can say that again wbj!!!!!

[wbjunior] 16/7/2007 10:10

Morning all quiet start to week and hopefully better than the last one. Off out for lunch back around 3 and please get the buyers back before then......................holding firm..............................wbj

[nardelli] 15/7/2007 16:35

hardmans report is a bit more than a sniff, me thinks

[corrientes] 15/7/2007 12:14

Given history on this thread, now's the time to start rubbishing MPH, so it'll rise above 200p where it should be.Good bet this one, near disaster is assumed, but if there's a sniff that the transition from YSL is going well, it'll run and run.

[wbjunior] 15/7/2007 10:38

Marchpole's management have indicated that new licences are to be forthcoming and that it is in negotiations for a small acquisition, then goes on to say
Potentially a significant acquisition in the not too distant future. Mardelli we will have to wait a little longer for £3 but it must surely get there soon.....................wbj

[nardelli] 15/7/2007 10:10

nothing from hardmans that was not known and most of us put a value of 2.20 anyway, I have said before, MM options kick in at 300p, so that logicly is where it is going, sooner would be better of course, but we will have to wait a few more months, personaly I will be adding more stock and slicing at 220. good luck all, even the shorters, more fool the seller....

[marben100] 14/7/2007 11:23

From the acquisition doc, Greenmark gross margins were:

'03: 16.0%; '04: 15.0%; '05 14.9%

I should have spotted this before! Admin costs have been low against turnover [few employees, being a private co, directors didn't pay themselves much], leading to decent net margins (which is what I was looking at before). I hope MPH can maintain those low admin costs in the Greenmark arm.

[dan de lion] 14/7/2007 11:17

Well, assuming the clothes side achieves 48%, then the return on shoe`s must be around 25%, to bring the total return down to 32%.

[marben100] 14/7/2007 00:27

Many thanks to Rivaldo for pointing out the new Hardman report, a fascinating read.

ddl,

I do feel(after reading the report a few times) that Hardman are being extremley cautious with their sales forecast, also they are basing the gross profit on 32.6% just above the 30% achieved last year(with it`s huge discounted YSL sales) as against the previously attained 48%.

I think there is a good reason for this: 44% of sales are expected to be derived from Greenmark and Greenmark is lower margin than the other business components. Must admit, I'm a bit disappointed to discover how much of MPH's post-YSL turnover will not fall within the "luxury goods" category (i.e. Greenmark and Ungaro diffusion). As a result of this, personally, I'd lower my target P/E to 12 from 15 - until/unless MPH can get the margins restored and improve focus on the luxury end of the market. Nonetheless, this gives a fair share price of 240p IF they hit the '08 target Hardman suggest.

Time will tell.

Regards,

Mark

[argy2] 13/7/2007 22:27

dan de lion

Thank you for that...saved me looking it up. Much appreciated

[dan de lion] 13/7/2007 19:22

argy2:-


............................. 2008 ,,,,,,,,,,2009
Broker Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS(p) DPS(p) Pre-tax(£) EPS(p) DPS(p)
Hardman & Co 11-07-07 None 7.80 19.80 4.00 10.40 26.30 4.30
Shore Capital 02-07-07 CORP 8.00 19.60 4.30 10.60 26.10 5.00

[polzeath] 13/7/2007 19:15

All sellers. No buyers.

[eagle eye3] 13/7/2007 19:02

you will all know in november, spring/ summer 07 is already out and by november the winter range will be out too, whatever the company has said they should not be far out, however, 150p is still on the cheap side of cheap.

I am guessing year end will be up on todays close.

[argy2] 13/7/2007 18:48

In that case it kind of underminds all of their research and forcasts on MPH.Do Shore Capital have updated forcasts yet do you know and how accurate were they last year?

[dan de lion] 13/7/2007 18:08

Shore Capital.

I would think that they discused the the margins just as much as they discused the t/o last year, after all, they were only £25 million out.

[argy2] 13/7/2007 17:41

Presumably Hardman discussed margins with management before puttung pen to paper especially as MPH are paying for the report.Do any independant brokers cover Marchpole these days? Not sure who their house brokers are these days.

[dan de lion] 13/7/2007 17:17

I do feel(after reading the report a few times) that Hardman are being extremley cautious with their sales forecast, also they are basing the gross profit on 32.6% just above the 30% achieved last year(with it`s huge discounted YSL sales) as against the previously attained 48%.

I also think too much is being made of the YSL overhang, retailers want fresh goods on their shelves, watch out for a YSL sell off or even the goods being disposed of through the trade(end of line wharehouses etc), People paying these prices want new designs not last years leftovers.

Ungaro could well get pushed along by the stores taking in new stock as they explain to punters that YSL has now gone.

IMHO

[eagle eye3] 13/7/2007 15:56

argy eat your words