Melrose Industries Share Discussion Threads

[minerve 2] 03/8/2020 19:27

Comedy gold!

LOL!

[tday] 03/8/2020 15:04

Minerve 2. Filtered.

[minerve 2] 02/8/2020 19:21

BUY ONE BAR GET ONE FREE!

LEMMINGS R US.

[minerve 2] 02/8/2020 19:21

BUY GOLD!
BUY IT NOW MORONS!

[meanwhile] 02/8/2020 11:30

Come on now. Now, now, comeon.
I’m not going to tell you again.

[gettingrichslow] 01/8/2020 22:21

You’re really revealing your lack of intellect now Minny.
In the financial crisis of c.2007/2008 the Fed printed c.$1.4 trillion over 2 years and gold rocketed by over 50% by the end of 2009.
Now consider how much the Fed is printing between March 2020 and July 2020 (only 5 months, not 2 years) - the answer is c.$3.2 trillion! Now take a guess what that might do to the gold price Minny?
It’s not rocket science is it??!!

[minerve 2] 01/8/2020 21:16

getting

They have been ‘printing money’ by the bucket load for over a decade, did you feel it in your water?

Simply laughable.

[essentialinvestor] 01/8/2020 19:14

It's not looking great, cases have doubled in the last week in France, Belgium and Ireland(from a very low level in Ireland). Poland has seen three consecutive record days of new infections.

If you are in a vulnerable group and usually skip the flu jab, it might be
worth considering this autumn. While it wont prevent COVID, having flu and coronavirus
close together may increase the virulence of either infection.

[gettingrichslow] 01/8/2020 18:57

And as for your statement:
“You saw a pandemic in China, at that point you had no idea of the woeful response Trump and Boris were about to make”

Errrr...yes I did!! Did anyone honestly think that we, in the UK, were going to do what China did and start wrapping 8ft of barbed wire around the house of anyone who tested positive to get the virus stopped in its tracks??!! No!

And who’d have thought Trump would make a mess of it eh??!

I’m starting to think that you’re VERY naive Minny. Dear oh dear!

[gettingrichslow] 01/8/2020 18:52

Gold is for morons eh?
Well I’m one of those morons who watched the Fed turn on those multi-trillion dollar printing presses in March and thought “hmmm...huge amounts of new funny money is being magically created, I wonder, what will rise in demand as a result - ooh, I know, that yellow stuff that has been the ultimate store of value for centuries” so I bought loads of it, just like every other sensible investor I know, and guess what, it rose from c$1,500 to c$2,000 in the next few months. But it’s complete luck Minny, not judgement at all, no, no, no!

[minerve 2] 01/8/2020 18:03

Gold and cryptos are for morons.

[minerve 2] 01/8/2020 18:00

I generally don't need to answer you because I KNOW I AM RIGHT and I'm not here to be your private tutor. You'll learn, eventually, one way or the other.

You saw a pandemic in China, at that point you had no idea of the woeful response Trump and Boris were about to make. You sold and if the right COVID responses had been executed MRO could have bounced back as quick as it came down. You sit here now, congratulating yourself on your action because the series of events HAVE TURNED OUT IN YOUR FAVOUR. You had NO WAY OF KNOWING which way they would go before they happened. We have had no pandemic before in modern history and no way of predicting societal, governmental and human response. You made a guess and got it right. That is all.

As far as gold is concerned, it isn't a safe haven at all. You are relying on the "The Greater Fool" theory. In other words you buy on quote and HOPE that someone who is also running scared from equities will come along and buy it from you at a higher price. Hope isn't a clever investment strategy at all because the greater demand you are expecting for your gold holding may NEVER materialise. You are then left with an asset sat in paper losses that generates you no income and/or no 'owner earnings'. Not very clever.

[susiebe] 01/8/2020 17:37

I guess you're calling Minerve 2 'Minny' in a condescending way? These boards really bring out some negative traits in people but I suppose it's easy to hide behind a keyboard and write whatever you fancy.

[scepticalinvestor] 01/8/2020 17:35

shall i book a hotel for you two lovebirds?

[gettingrichslow] 01/8/2020 17:29

You didn’t answer the first two questions of course. You never do. I wonder why?

[minerve 2] 01/8/2020 17:15

I'm making the right calls _most_ of the time. But seeing as you, thankfully, don't live with me, you will not see that.

[gettingrichslow] 01/8/2020 17:11

What exactly was the uneven risk/reward judgement I was making when I exited MRO as we entered a global pandemic? That judgement was what’s known as common sense. And it was the right call.
What exactly was the ‘home run’ I was trying to hit when I bought gold instead, a well-known safe haven? That was the right call too.
The reality is Minny, that for all your waffle, you haven’t made the right calls have you?

[gettingrichslow] 01/8/2020 16:25

You don’t need to ‘keep reminding’ me of anything Minny. When I sold out of MRO on 02 March I was making a risk/reward call and it worked. When I bought £200k of gold ETFs in May I was making a risk/reward call and it worked. Seems like your judgement is a bit ‘out’ so maybe instead of waffling on about DCFs and WBSs and reading books about steam engines you should focus on making some more successful judgements? We are all here to make money after all aren’t we??

[meanwhile] 01/8/2020 16:07

Now, come on now. Come on. Now, now on.

Why can't we all just get along?

[minerve 2] 01/8/2020 14:47

Reference AA:

Agreed Essential.

Having said all that though it has all the Hallmarks of a sustainable competitive advantage. Also, it isn't a typical company in which administration - forced by creditors - follows the typical path. It is what is called a Whole of Business Securitisation (WBS) where control passes to the debt holders - and not the administrator (in this case, not sure about others) - who are motived in keeping the business as a going concern. I actually think this reduces chances of rights issues and total loss for equity holders as the bond owners will just extend debt maturities for their increased cake in the future. As I keep on reminding getting it is all about return vs risk. AA could easily be a 400%/500% return on a lower risk of total loss than what a brief analysis may suggest.

[essentialinvestor] 01/8/2020 14:32

The primary issue with AA is and has always been, the net debt. PE geared up the balance sheet and sold the business. It's a well worn path.
The business itself is arguably solid, but they were hugely hampered by their borrowings.
It increased operational gearing of the business, meaning any revenue reduction
would have a disproportionate impact on the P&L.


Bodycoate gives exposure to the same markets MRO service, however they are an added services business(heat treatment) rather than a primary manufacturer. Unlike MRO they have both negligible
net debt and pension deficit. May be worth a look sub £4. Very well run, but they are still between a rock
and a hard place atm.

[minerve 2] 01/8/2020 13:55

By-the-way folks, I started to read the book on GKN I bought a while ago. Very interesting couple of first chapters so far. Based around Merthyr Tydfil they were one of the most productive iron works in the world. Reading the history of GKN the first chapter of its life is liking reading the who's who of our industrial revolution - particular steam power. GKN had a private tram way using the world's first steam locomotive invented by Richard Trevithick. They installed one of the first steam driven bellows using a steam engine invented by Boulton and Watt. They consulted with Isambard Kingdom Brunel on rail roads and were one of the main suppliers for rail in the UK and exported to Russia as well as the US. Interesting stuff. And they were about to lose it all because of a landlord until he died shortly before the lease ended.

And all that effort over 250 years down the tubes for it to end-up as cash cows for three amigos who are not even fit to tie the shoe laces of those giants.

Great, wonderful.

[minerve 2] 01/8/2020 09:48

getting

I've been doing this for 30 years. I don't get them all right, and neither do I profess to. When I was a business angel I lost £500,000 once so small holdings that might not work out in my portfolio don't really hold me back that much financially or mentally. If you don't make mistakes you will never learn. ;)

I don't really need you to teach me anything getting. I learn from the essays and words of Buffett, Munger, Lynch et al.

I think you should stop socialising so much and get your head in some of these books during weekends. You will suddenly start to realise how stupid you sound.