Melrose Industries Share Discussion Threads

[minerve 2] 31/7/2020 23:15

Ah, yes, I can see now where I could be going wrong. This is the type of quality instruction I need to be following from now on:

“I don’t think you could say that it’s not a buy at any level, but I suspect it could go quite a bit lower until we get to a point where there’s some sort of clarity of outlook. While the forward guidance is non-existent it’ll probably drift lower in my view. Of course you could get lucky with a punt, but if you’re going to do that you may as well bet on dog number six at Walthamstow.”

ROFLMAO!

It won’t make me the millionaire that I currently am but it will go along way with my Little Englander gammons down the pub at the weekend.

Guffaw guffaw.

[gettingrichslow] 31/7/2020 16:37

Minny, I’m impressed that they taught you about discounted cash flow analysis at Pontypridd Poly. Would’ve thought you’d have been learning how to wire plugs and that sort of thing in a Poly. But as you know, in DCF analysis, the present value that you arrive at is only as good as the numbers you put into your spreadsheet, and those are only forecasts. From my experience of you, your judgement isn’t great when it comes to interpreting broker forecasts or a company’s own forward guidance. In other words you get a bit ‘led’ by others with their own vested interests rather than thinking independently. No offence, but that could explain many of your poor decisions and why you’ve become so bitter and twisted.

[gettingrichslow] 31/7/2020 16:23

“Something smells bad in here now.”

Yes, that’ll be since Minerve returned!

[npp62] 31/7/2020 15:15

I'm out at a loss. Something smells bad in here now.

[minerve 2] 31/7/2020 13:52

getting

AA has always been a play on a pseudo debt for equity swap and in that regard there is no change. If you think the sustainable competitive advantage of the AA isn't damaged sufficiently enough by its debt the opportunity is still there.

Kier is a turnaround stock and in that regard there is no change also.

They both offer prices below intrinsic value if AA pays down its debt and Kier continues on its path of turnaround.

With Rolls Royce its share price also offered price below intrinsic value based on projections of flight numbers going forward and its improvements within including computer simulations of engine improvements and its new range of engines moving away from being loss making at point of sale.

I was a computing/electronics/general engineer before being a full-time investor, so I know about these things! ;)

Of course COVID has thrown a spanner in the works.

With your investments it has ALWAYS been 'be part of the herd'. I bet you don't do any thorough business analysis of the underlying shares, if you do it is not enough. I bet you can't even compute simple DCF analysis.

You rely on the Greater Fool Theory which looks marvellous when the herd is in full swing - empowered by QE, serial low interest rates and silly government handouts. Just wait until the magic money tree runs out of steam and then watch your favourite shares look for their intrinsic values. You will not be able to see that originating in a Chinese province, it will just happen.

Terry Smith you momentum traders are not. He is unique.

You know there is one side of investing that you numpties always seem to completely ignore! That is risk. Return should always be measured by the risks you take. Most of you herd numpties take on more risk than you realise because you have no idea of what the real assets and cashflows should be valued at. You only realise the risks you have taken when it is too late. You never know, you might be one of the lucky ones who never gets to learn the lesson. Some how, I doubt it though.

I've seen your type come and go over 30s years of investing. I'm still here and I'm still doing well. Better stop being a prat, pretending to be something you are obviously not, and start learning from the pros.

[gettingrichslow] 31/7/2020 09:55

But you’ve also thought the market has been wrong on numerous other shares too Minny. The AA, Rolls Royce, Kier etc - the list is almost endless - yet the market was right on those wasn’t it? And your holdings collapsed as a result.
Moving into online giants and gold is hardly hindsight by the way - we were in a global pandemic for Christ’s sake when I moved into both of these safe havens! Is it really a surprise that they have both shot up? I don’t think so!

[minerve 2] 31/7/2020 09:26

"The market is up if you’re in the right areas Ammu - SGLP, AMZN for example..."

Define 'right area'. To you it just seems the hindsight view of recent momentum.

My definition is in shares of value not in shares that rely on "The Greater Fool" theory. IT is very easy to look like a clever investor when you are sat in the herd making money. One day the music will stop, the greater fools will disappear and then you will be left with an asset that is overpriced relative to the forward cashflows it will bring you. The market will come to its senses and the share price will adjust downwards. Some of them in large downward movements.

Give you an example. Imperial Brands currently yields 10% dividend. More importantly, the asset is generating 20.83% FCF per share to shareholders. That means if the stock market closed tomorrow - and assuming tobacco sales hold up medium term - shareholders would get back their initial investment with free cash flow in less than five years. Anything over that is forward profit. The tobacco revenue pool is actually expected to grow going forward because of NGP. So I think it is one of the best investments on the FTSE ATM. Do the herd think so? No. They buy into other stocks where forward sales are generally unpredictable but they are the glory boy shares so who cares? Wait for the greater fool right?

[gettingrichslow] 31/7/2020 08:57

The market is up if you’re in the right areas Ammu - SGLP, AMZN for example...

[scepticalinvestor] 31/7/2020 08:04

that 13k buy at 87 odd is mine.this is a lovely share to trade

[ammu12] 31/7/2020 07:59

So gettingrichslow shows his face when markets goes down and melrose follows lol....

[gettingrichslow] 30/7/2020 22:43

You win some you lose some Minny. I acted pretty early on Burford too after the MW attack. Bought back in the low 300s. But what about gold eh? Not bad - $1,500 an ounce in March, now $1,960?

[minerve 2] 30/7/2020 22:31

Shame you didn’t have the same prophecy with Burford, eh?

LOL!

[gettingrichslow] 30/7/2020 22:26

I’m not sure which part of what’s happened so far with MRO is something anyone should be surprised about? Let’s look back at what happened. The coronavirus story started emerging in mid-January. By mid-February it was the main news headline. It was already pretty obvious at that point that there was a really big problem brewing. Wuhan was in its lockdown, cases were popping up in ski resorts, on cruise ships etc. At this point, the share price was still c.245p!!
A week later I was in a pub in London watching the news where every single item was about this virus spreading fast and engulfing Iran and Italy. I sold all my MRO the next day at between 214p and 204p. Everyone I was with that night (all experienced investors) agreed at that point that airlines and anything related would be stuffed and that this virus was clearly becoming a pandemic with disastrous consequences. So I do struggle with anyone saying this was hard to predict??

[roks] 30/7/2020 21:00

So we;re doomed? should have sold when it was 5k down....

[jackdaw4243] 30/7/2020 10:53

To Cheer everyone up, this was part of a comment in my mailbox this morning.

"The overnight collapse of tourism and business travel means aviation has taken the biggest and most obvious pandemic hit – over 40 airlines around the globe have gone bust or are in some form of bankruptcy protection. The Boeing/Airbus duopoly looks in serious trouble as orders and deliveries plummet.

34% of the world’s passenger aircraft, over 7600 planes, are sitting unused around the globe. It was over 14400 planes at one point! Many of the smaller B-737s and A-320/321s are getting back in the skies – but only because they are cheaper to fly half-empty."

[roks] 29/7/2020 15:49

So where is mro headed now? I doubt I'll see 1.50 any time soon.....talk about bad timing

[minerve 2] 28/7/2020 09:09

Not heading of on holiday then like other COVidiots?

I guess you don't have the money having not listened to myself and a few others about Burford.

[minerve 2] 28/7/2020 09:07

Oh, "nuanced", big word for you old boy. I guess it is a popular word in business penguin circles along with "synergy" and "colour".

How about a "heads-up" on any other words that you think make you clever?

LOL

[gettingrichslow] 27/7/2020 22:04

Probably too nuanced for you to understand Minny. Are you still ‘in between jobs’ by the way?

[essentialinvestor] 27/7/2020 19:14

Fair point, thanks for your view.

[minerve 2] 27/7/2020 15:55

In other words he hasn’t got a clue.

Why not just say that?

[gettingrichslow] 27/7/2020 15:49

Essential, I don’t think you could say that it’s not a buy at any level, but I suspect it could go quite a bit lower until we get to a point where there’s some sort of clarity of outlook. While the forward guidance is non-existent it’ll probably drift lower in my view. Of course you could get lucky with a punt, but if you’re going to do that you may as well bet on dog number six at Walthamstow.

[essentialinvestor] 27/7/2020 14:13

getting, is your view on Melrose that it's not a buy at any level?.

[minerve 2] 27/7/2020 13:20

getting

You obviously haven't learned about it or you wouldn't be writing that drivel.