Melrose Industries Share Discussion Threads

[meanwhile] 15/4/2018 18:40

Yertiz,

I have thought of filtering you out several times because of your pathetic arguments. However, I've resisted because, having filtered a few others for related reasons, you remain my last link to what I call 'The Twilight Zone'. If you recall the TV programme, this is that dismal area between darkness and light.

I keep you unfiltered just to remind me that such a place really exists.

[minerve] 15/4/2018 18:33

Ah, the important things in life, a bulging wallet! Hopefully the right values to go with it. I doubt it though if numptyplus has anything to do with it. "Ha Ha."

[brexitplus] 15/4/2018 18:17

Hi Yertiz, point well made. I agree about 300p by the year end.

Just back from our nephew’s 18th birthday celebrations. He is now has a bulging wallet!!! Brilliant weekend, lovely weather.

I see the Mail is claiming it is stopping the takeover!!!

[yertiz] 15/4/2018 17:49

For someone so fixated on the numbers, you lack some basic knowledge in so much that an average is a figure, not a range. Its easy maths to do, add both 299p and 320p and divide by 2 - the average will be 309.5p.

Accuracy has to be proven, too - you can't say a figure is accurate when the target is unknown. By December 31st (28th, as 31st is a Sunday) we will know how accurate my figure is because the target will be known. I don't think I will be too far off the mark.

Maybe your wife could help you out with this....unless she too is a Daily Mail reader?

[meanwhile] 15/4/2018 10:49

Current weather conditions :
Tampa, Florida 23oC Dry, partly overcast, possible scattered showers later.
Buena Vista, Colorado -8oC, Dry, clear.

If you're actually in either place, you may have more up-to-date figures.

On the subject of numbers, this week on the board we've had Goldman Sachs predicting 320p some time in the future and Yertiz predicting 299-300p by year end.
The accuracy of this latter forecast is impressive and staggering.
Combining these 2 expert opinions, then averaging out the data, we reach a forecast of 299-320p, by sometime between year end and sometime in the future.
The sometime in the future is indicated by GS to be when most businesses have been sold off, in the future, market conditions permitting.

I've discussed these figures with my wife, also an MRO holder, and we have decided not to base our forward strategy on these forecasts.
It was a 'no brainer', 'skin in the game', 'Daily Mail' sort of decision.

[mayers] 13/4/2018 20:08

Re 3448. I very much doubt if the GKN deal will be blocked. The Government is too busy replacing parliamentary democracy by a self-selected oligarchy.

[yertiz] 13/4/2018 19:52

BoA increasing their holdings by 0.044%. May not be a great deal, but the impetus seems very much with Melrose at the moment. Not a good time to be short, just need another positive valuation and any block on the deal put to bed.

[brexitplus] 13/4/2018 16:57

Getting. Hope you are enjoying Naples.

Yes, Melrose on the move. GS bullish on Melrose, quite rightly. The potential is huge.

[brexitplus] 13/4/2018 15:58

GOLDMAN ADDS MELROSE TO CONVICTION LIST, SAYS IT'S FUNDAMENTALLY UNDERVALUED

(ShareCast News) - Melrose Industries, which recently won its battle to take over engineer GKN, got a boost on Friday as Goldman Sachs added the buy-rated stock to its Conviction List.
Goldman said the stock is "fundamentally undervalued" and that its share price materially underestimates potential future value creation.

"On our analysis, we highlight that GKN could be circa 40-60% earnings accretive to Melrose under a range of GKN margin scenarios by 2020," the bank said, as it reiterated its 12m sum-of-the-parts price target of 320p, which remains premised on 120p value creation from inorganic growth opportunities in addition to a 200p valuation for Melrose's existing assets.

Acquisitions aside, Goldman also sees scope for potential value creation from the disposal of some or all of Nortek in 2018, as previously flagged by Melrose management.

As far as risks are concerned, GS said there is still some risk the GKN deal might be blocked. "Despite UK defence revenues only equating to circa 1% of GKN's revenues, the debate has been well publicised and UK government intervention remains a risk, although not our base case. The deal is also waiting CFIUS (US) clearance," it said.

In addition, it pointed out that the company's high US exposure means it would be negatively affected by a depreciation of the US dollar versus the pound. However, earnings would benefit from depreciation in the yuan versus the pound.

[meanwhile] 13/4/2018 14:39

Good for you, minerve.
We prefer the mountains to the coast; our place is in Colorado.

£3 will do for us.

[yertiz] 13/4/2018 12:36

Losos, like you some years ago I also dabbled with BTG and their new revolutionary treatment for varicose veins, expecting, hoping, thinking it was a no-brainer. Unfortunately the foam injected was nothing like as effective as it was marketed and the company somewhat bombed on or after Phase 3 trials.

I got out but not before losing near on 50% of my initial investment so I understand your reticence regards NMC, but they really are a completely different animal. DYOR, but they are FTSE 100 listed, acquisitive, profit-making and dividend paying. Worth a punt.

[gettingrichslow] 13/4/2018 12:33

Well in that case you made more in the last 4 weeks than you made in the last 4 years with GKN (March 14 to March 18)!! Underlines what a poor investment GKN was for you, no?

[minerve] 13/4/2018 11:55

gettingrichslow

I did indeed sell GKN at 450p. But I don't just sit on the cash. Re-invested into UK centric shares like I said and doing well. Go over to the AA thread, I have made 20-30% on that over the last few weeks and have been posting. Oh dear look, AA ahead of Melrose even today on the leader board!

If you understood that the AA was unique in its set-up, it is a Whole of Business Securitization (go and read) - you would realise it was completely oversold and the ratings on its debt are fine. It was a good buy.

You just don't mess with the best.

Stop posting stupid comments about Florida weather. Who cares? I had a $1.3M holiday home - fully paid up in cash - north of Tampa for five years. Arthur Rutenberg home. Beautiful custom built properties.

[gettingrichslow] 13/4/2018 11:40

Weather here in Naples, FL is 28C. MRO flying. GKN back above 450p, let's hope no-one sold out at that level eh?
GS have a strong interest now in ramping MRO but having said that when have MRO NOT surprised us on the upside??

[losos] 13/4/2018 11:35

yertiz - "DM's Crossword is rubbish too."

Haha - I don't do crosswords, don't have the time or the inclination, thanks for your tip on NMC Health, I'll pass on that one, not my type of share ;-) got slightly burned with BTG a long time ago haha.

[bouleversee] 13/4/2018 10:10

Over what period?

[yertiz] 13/4/2018 10:09

How on earth do they come up with such fanciful numbers?? £3.20.....really???


My prediction of £3 by year end has been dismissed by several on here, indeed, looking back over my calculations, I was remiss in certain aspects, if not over-egging the potential of future earnings/profits. My revised prediction for end of year (2018) is therefore £2.99.

And is prone not a posture, Meanwhile? Lol

[brain smiley] 13/4/2018 10:01

Goldman Sachs has put a new price target of 320 on Melrose today.

[meanwhile] 13/4/2018 09:58

Good, accurate summary Yertiz, at least the bits I understood.

At the current rate of MRO share price progress, a wallet photo update may be in order soon.
The money to be shown in the wallet was all earned by labour and hard work relating to Melrose shares.

[yertiz] 13/4/2018 09:43

Today's hot tip: NMC Health.

Weather: Overcast

Roads: A30 eastbound closed due to serious accident (between Newquay and Roche junctions)

Melrose vultures having a field day. (Hooray for us in the gutter making money at others expense!?).

The Sun still not selling too well in Liverpool
Daily Mail share price still falling steadily, in line with subscription number decrease.
Trinity Mirror group - Maxwell is still dead.
NOTW: Gone and probably forgotten, except by the family and friends of Milly Dowler.
Rupert Murdoch, Piers Morgan, Rebekah Brookes, Andy Coulson still on the scene, such lovely people.

[brexitplus] 13/4/2018 09:07

Prices on the up as we get towards 19th April.

Still posturing going on, particularly by Airbus and the Daily Rubbish.