Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[tightfist] 14/3/2020 08:50

Hi Steve, agreed, I take all your points and particularly unswervingly thumbing their noses at the those who actually own the company - the shareholders.....
.
But, hands up, in view of their continuing apparent distain for shareholders even I have been reducing my holding over the last two months - to redeploy capital elsewhere in the gold miner space.
.
Cheers, tightfist

[deka1] 14/3/2020 06:58

Gold has fallen with everything else its down $170/oz from recent high, in this global crash , and everything has been sold off to reduce losses, and its not over yet
,all gold miners have fallen significantly in the last week or two,MML is not alone in this .

[stevea171] 13/3/2020 11:14

MML down 50% in the past couple of months with $1600 gold.
PE ratio of 1.2 for current year ending June.
Company doing so well that 5.3 million Performance Rights have been issued today which will dilute shareholders.
Company doing so well that everyone is rewarded except shareholders. We take the share price losses as well as the loss of interest and opportunity loss. No dividend from decent HY profits and no dividend policy in place at all.

Anyone here know if the major shareholders get together to call an EGM to discuss and vote on forcing Teo (& Co?) out? How could this work?

[deka1] 13/3/2020 08:03

Appendix 3G - Long Term Performance Rights 2020

Medusa Mining Limited (“Medusa”;) is issuing 5.3 million Long Term Performance Rights (“PR”) to employees of the Medusa Group of companies which includes employees of its Philippine associated entities.

The PR have been issued in accordance with the terms and conditions of a Performance Rights Plan approved by Medusa shareholders on 28 January 2015.

Medusa Directors have been excluded and do not partake in the allocation.

Purpose
The purpose of the PR is to create the opportunity for key company personnel to be rewarded for delivering high performance over the long term. The program assists with retention of selected valued personnel and gives better alignment of the long term objectives of the Company and long term shareholder interests.

Entitlement
The Performance Rights Plan entitles the holder of a PR to one ordinary Medusa share per PR, subject to meeting pre-determined Terms and Conditions. The PR will be subject to achievement of certain performance criteria shown under Terms and Conditions below.

Grant Date
13 March 2020

[deka1] 12/3/2020 18:12

Welcome TF

[tightfist] 12/3/2020 15:35

Thanks for the insight deka

[deka1] 12/3/2020 14:47

Duterte locks down the capital for 1 month to help fight corona virus.

[deka1] 09/3/2020 07:20

Market Summary > S&P/ASX 200
INDEXASX: XJO
5,760.60 −455.60 (7.33%)

9 Mar, 16:17 GMT+11 ·

ASIAN STOCK MARKETS MUTILATED

I got the black Friday prediction wrong perhaps it will be black MONDAY on the ftse, and dow, well everywhere .

[deka1] 07/3/2020 19:37

Thank you so much Chip, I greatly appreciate it old friend, all the best .

[chipperfrd] 07/3/2020 16:20

Deka,

Frankly, MML has been the most undervalued stock in my producer comparison table (see table2 on ) for several years now. Here are the latest figures as of yesterday's close:

Metric ..... Value . (average of all 60 stocks)

PER ........ 1.7 ... (50.4)
PBV ........ 0.57 .. (1.1)
PSR ........ 0.55 .. (3.5)
PCF ........ 1.64 .. (24.4)
Ev/EBITDA .. 0.96 .. (10.8)

It has got to the point that I find it difficult to see how the equity market will ever price them i.a.w. their peer group.

I suppose the latest drag on their share performance will be their decision to invest in a decline to level 14 over the next 3 years - although clearly they are going to need it in order to stay in business over the longer term.

However, c. US$60m over 36 months appears about right. Works out at c. US$5m/qtr which ought to be achievable from cashflow assuming gold stays up at current levels. As a holder I am supportive of the decline but realise it will almost certainly prevent the restoration of dividends - which is a bummer!

You asked if I would put up my suggestions for MML figures at US$1,700 gold price. So here is my rather rushed estimate - which is almost certain to be wrong!

As Q3 is nearly complete I think we can safely assume c. US$1,600/oz for Q3.
I have plugged in US$1,650/oz for Q4 and then (as requested) put in US$1,700/oz for all of FY2021 (ie until 30/6/21).

For FY20 (until 30/6/20) I get the following:
Revenue ~ US$153m
OPCF ~ US$87m
Cash Costs ~ US$66m
AISC ~ US$108m
EPS ~ A$0.32

For 2021 (assuming PoG @ $1,700/oz) I get:
Revenue ~ US$170m
OPCF ~ US$105m
Cash Costs ~ US$65m
AISC ~ US$110m
EPS ~ A$0.43

I think I could probably do a better job but time is a bit limited.
Chip

[chipperfrd] 07/3/2020 11:52

Hi Deka!

In recent years I have tended to focus on financial ratios in comparison with peer stocks in order to try and work out what stocks are undervalued or overvalued, given that they are all producing the same product.

Hence, I have been doing far less in terms of quarterly production numbers, which in the past I used in order to try and refine predictions of future quarters. So, in the case of MML, I have not been updating my existing production/cashflow sheets, which means that I cannot just reel of my opinions re production and financial figures.

But given that it's you Deka (:-)) I will try and take a look to see if I can come up with something sensible. But given the Rugby and other stuff that I have to do this weekend - it may take me a little while.

All the best to you.
Chip

[deka1] 07/3/2020 09:04

Chip if your on the wire, please could you give us your numbers for MML with gold at 1700, would be greatly appreciated , thank you
Dek

[deka1] 04/3/2020 09:05

ILTL,hi you still in this andy.

[ilostthelot] 04/3/2020 08:07

Aye you're right Deka, at these gold prices even medusa will struggle not to make good money.

[deka1] 04/3/2020 07:44

Hi guys , imo the fall in the share price was due to the two fatalities , and small investors thinking HELL what else can go wrong with this comp, then we have had the global sell off in shares at the same time , I checked a few other goldies last week and they fell as well into the POG fall from near 1700 to under 1600 .
With gold at 1650 this comp will be churning out money , wait an see.imo

[stevea171] 03/3/2020 20:34

Trailing PE Ratio: 58 / 17.9 = 3.2
Could be heading for PE of 2 in 2020 with these gold prices ....

Correction: This is just for H1/19.
So PE for current year ending in June is approx 1.6.

[tightfist] 03/3/2020 17:51

Hi deka,
I scanned the H1 results and thought they were pretty respectable, even if the company rating remains dire. Apart from the 20% increase in Corporate Overheads....
Then the share price fell quite a bit; IYO was this company-specific or just reflecting market gyrations - Gold Miners and PoG?

Or maybe it just PI's finally throwing in the towel to get on-board the current gold action elsewhere??

Thoughts?  tightfist

[deka1] 03/3/2020 17:04

gold back to 1640 and rising

[deka1] 02/3/2020 07:21

BID/OFFER 5.5C SPREAD never seen that much here before .

[deka1] 28/2/2020 08:38

Medusa Mining Limited

Revenues of US$75.5 million, an increase of 29% from US$58.7 million in the previous corresponding period (“pcp”). This increase in revenues of US$16.8 million is primarily attributable to a higher gold price received on the sale of gold.

Medusa is an un-hedged gold producer and received an average gold price of US$1,484 per ounce from the sale of 47,449 ounces of gold for the half-year to December 2019 (pcp: 47,978 ounces at US$1,219 per ounce).

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (“EBITDA”;) of US$34.8 million, up 53% from EBITDA of US$22.7 million in the pcp.

NPAT of US$24.4 million, up 194% on NPAT of US$8.3 million from pcp.

Basic earnings per share (“EPS”) up 193% to US$0.117 from pcp EPS of US$0.040.

The Company had total cash and cash equivalent in gold on metal account and bullion on hand of US$24.6 million at 31 December 2019 (pcp: US$14.6 million).

During the half year:
Depreciation of fixed assets and amortisation of capitalised mine development and mine exploration was US$9.8 million (pcp: US$10.9 million).
US$3.2 million was expended on capital works (inclusive of new Service Shaft) and associated capital at mine and mill for the period (pcp: US$5.9 million).
Exploration expenditure, including underground diamond drilling was US$3.7 million (pcp: US$4.3 million). Capitalised mine development costs totalled US$12.5 million (pcp: US$13.6 million). Corporate overheads of US$3.6 million (pcp: US$2.8 million).