Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[deka1] 27/2/2020 07:41

Condolences to the mens families , sadly underground mining is a dangerous business

[deka1] 27/2/2020 07:34

Underground Fatality

Medusa Mining Limited (“Medusa”; or the “Company”;), through its Philippines operating company Philsaga Mining Corporation, is saddened to report of a fatal accident which occured at its Co-O mine on 26 February 2020.

Preliminary indications are a rockfall has occurred within an area of the underground mine, resulting in fatal injuries to two underground workers. A third underground worker has been taken to hospital with serious injuries and is currently in a stable condition.

The Philippine Mines and Geosciences Bureau has been notified of the accident. Activites in the immediate area of the mine where the rockfall occurred have been suspended pending the outcome of a detailed investigation.

Following inspections, other areas of the mine continue to operate.

The Company is deeply upset by the incident and is providing support to the families of the worker’s and the Co-O workforce.

[bushtuckaman] 27/2/2020 07:01

Hi chaps, it’s been a while since I dropped in here. Having read through the recent posts on here it looks like sentiment in general towards MML and the board is pretty low. Today’s news of 2 fatalities at the mine will no doubt not help that.

The 200 day moving average was being kissed (A$0.71) prior to today’s news. Deeply penetrated now though.

The negativity on this board could easily swamp peoples view of the fundamentals, so I’m trying to look at this with an open mind.

2020 forward guidance

103koz/pa
AISC $1025-1125/Oz
Pog $1650 currently

Vs

Mcap $US 85m @ A$0.615

So if all the current cash and some more goes on the planned decline it should on paper still produce significant cash relative to the MCap. IMO that decline should have been started by Geoff Davies 10 years ago instead of him high grading the upper levels, but that’s a whole different subject.

I still hold a few from the ‘happy times’ after the Great Hamish vein RNS, (boy could the do with another one of those) this share was v good to me back then. So I’m tempted to buy some right here but fears of a wider virus related market collapse is holding me back atm.

Ps.
Good to see a few of the old names from the last big run still here, chip, deka etc. Do Marben and Polaris still post?
Glitter, NGL was my best multibagger also, I only managed 8 bags though ;-)

GLA

[deka1] 25/2/2020 10:50

Glitter2 good to here from you,i too have been in MML since the early noughties, and did well buying at 38p and selling at near a fiver, but suffered the old greed syndrome , buying back in at around aus$5/ share , so it needs to 4 bag from here for me to break even lol, but I am convinced it will , and then multi bag from there, lol
Got a couple of big hedge funds in here WHY.
Good luck to you old boy , OH btw I am 73 years lol, and a stroke survivor,still kicking lol take care .

edit it was $5

[deka1] 25/2/2020 10:26

Thanks CP42, good luck to you .

[cp42kx07] 25/2/2020 08:49

I hope it plays out for you deka1 but after very many years of patience I've finally accepted that MML's directors are only interested in riding the gravy train and that there is no likelihood of shareholders being offered even a platform ticket. Good luck to all of you who remain here.CP

[deka1] 24/2/2020 20:40

CP42 hi , first the POG has to rise and stay higher , imo 1700 plus, that would bring
double earnings that it was making a couple month ago,which could bring in enough in one year to pay for the investment needed to complete the slope job.
everything crossed lol

With gold at 1700/oz and aisc of 1050/oz --- that's $650/oz profit before offtakes,at 105000 /oz produced
[t wasn't earning much over $100 /oz a year ago, we just need gold to hold up.

[cp42kx07] 24/2/2020 12:10

Hi deka1Yes, there could be loads of cash generated but I've seen no evidence that the directors have any intention of distributing a fair share of this to us!

[deka1] 24/2/2020 11:51

CP42Kx07, if gold keeps rising as it is for a while , and holds somewhere near the high , there could be a hell of a lot of extra cash generated , and no need for borrowing, who knows , but if the price gets to say 1800/oz and stays there ,well the cost of the slope will come from from cash flow.

[cp42kx07] 24/2/2020 09:25

So, after we've all waited years for MML to arrive at a point when it starts to generate a decent cashflow, management have decided that shareholders are not going to be rewarded with a dividend as all available funds are (supposedly) needed for further capital investment.

The present gold price action could have been the perfect opportunity to entice new shareholders with the promise of an income stream but it is clear that this company is run only for the benefit of directors, management, employees, local residents, the Philippines government etc - in fact anyone and everyone other than loyal, long-suffering shareholders.

Sadly, based on the recent AGM, I see no evidence that institutional investors are willing to call the directors to account so it is unlikely that anything will change.

Exit, pursued by a bear...

[stevea171] 21/2/2020 07:24

>>SPAM ALERT>>> Above post by lennyhall21 is another spam merchant. Do not click on the link.

[deka1] 20/2/2020 20:47

rhuvaal2 hi yes they must know something ,absolutely , they would not be here on a wing and a prayer ,Pro investors .

[rhuvaal2] 20/2/2020 10:50

Deka1, do remember that two institutions have recently bought in here, one adding to its' 30M holding (and they're not stupid!) UK Ruffer that is

[deka1] 20/2/2020 10:40

Yyyyyyyooooouuul be soooooooooorrryyyy lololol, good luck guys i'm so far down its not worth moving out.

[chapv] 20/2/2020 10:06

yes me also after holding for several years I have finally sold at a fair loss but I just don't see things improving here greatly any time soon. All the best to holders.

[rhuvaal2] 20/2/2020 10:00

Have sold down my largish holding over past weeks and now have 50k in case there's a
Management upheaval making way for a squirt up to 2 dollars or something. One day this could be the highest riser on the board but meantime it'll chug on and on. Good luck to anyone else here....

[deka1] 18/2/2020 10:28

Co-O Operation Update


Medusa Mining Limited (“Medusa”; or the “Company”;) through its Philippines affiliate, Philsaga Mining Corporation, is pleased to provide an update on the L8 Shaft at its Co-O Gold Mine.

Following the failure of the electronic controller for L8 Shaft winder last week (refer to ASX announcement 13 February 2020), replacement components have been sourced and successfully installed and commissioned, allowing shaft operations to recommence today.

Medusa CEO, Dave McGowan, commented: ”I would like to extend my sincere thanks to our people on site for their diligent efforts in repairing the winder controls and bringing the shaft back into operations as quickly as they have. It highlights the skill and commitment of the talented people we have in our team.”

Production guidance for FY20 remains at between 95,000 to 105,000 ounces at All-In Sustaining Costs of approximately US$1,025 to US$1,125 per ounce.

[tightfist] 14/2/2020 20:31

I agree that I would not invest in a company that borrows in order to pay dividends - but please BoD don't use is as an excuse to go totally quiet on the subject of dividends; remember the pitiful BoD shareholdings.....

My biggest issue with the E15 shaft is that it is repeatedly being asserted that "the shaft was not designed for Ore Haulage". For anyone with a memory that is patently untrue; it was delayed and the Capex increased to do just that.... I think that at the time it even had a stated design capacity of 700t/d - it became more convenient to sack the COO instead!

O/T: SRB was severely overhung in Q2/Q3 last year due to two ii's exiting in parallel. To get a current flavour (and see what lies behind Stockopedia's bullish forecasts) I suggest you take a look at brrmedia and CRUX videos.

Cheers, tightfist

[pigeonfeeder] 14/2/2020 19:24

I think the Decline cost is a very good reason to not pay dividends. I wouldn't want to invest in a company that borrows to pay dividends.

My worry is the Decline will (like the E15 shaft) go over budget and be late. Once completed it wouldn't surprise me if more capex is required.

Will take a closer look at SRB - the stockopedia stock rank has improved since when I looked last year. Funnily enough in 2008 I decided I wanted exposure to gold mining companies and the two I chose where MML and SRB, based on articles in Investors chronicle - no research of my own. MML did great, I think I eventually sold SRB at a small loss.

[tightfist] 14/2/2020 15:50

Hi Pigeonfeeder,

I am not surprised that you have finally thrown in the towel, the lack of shareholder awareness is palpable. I have hung-on (although I have reduced) in the fond hope that ANO will step forward (probably internally) and take the reins, but I suppose it’s all too cosy for that to happen. Hence my recent reference to when AT comes up for re-election.
.
The Decline cost (including handling equipment) is correctly stated to be estimated at circa $60m which will make a big dent in their operating cash-flow for several years and provide a perfect excuse for a continuing zero-dividend policy being handed down.
.
It’s only the hazy notion of Value-will-out that keeps me engaged, together with the possibility of additional short-term ore feed from near surface on Royal Crowne Vein?
.
Whatever you do, good luck, tightfist
PS: if you have not already, worth IMO taking a good look at SRB where management is vastly more sincere, communicative and energetic

[pigeonfeeder] 13/2/2020 19:55

I have sold my last MML earlier this month. In November I owned 110k.

I have no confidence that dividends will be paid for many years.

The company looks very cheap on the basis of P/E, but the profits are all spent on capex and failed exploration.

The company is lining up financing in case it is required to fund the $60m decline so this suggests most if not all profits over the next two years at least will be funding capex and this doesn't take into account the tailings dam work which Miningnut believes is required.

Management does not have a great track record when it comes to capex spend - the E15 shaft was very late. It was supposed to 'unconstrain the mine' but its completion did not have a huge impact on production.

It may be that management is wiser and has been more conservative with its projections regarding the building of the decline, but I have lost patience.

[deka1] 13/2/2020 16:24

Cheers chip

[chipperfrd] 13/2/2020 15:04

tightfist,

It does look as though the proposed decline is the best solution compared to yet another shaft.

It does make for easier expansion to lower depths eventually and has far more flexibility regarding possible expansion to the North if exploration makes it economical.

However, it does raise the question as to why this solution was not considered before all the time and expense occurred for the L8 and then the necessary service shaft needed to make up for the hoisting inefficiencies on L8 that then arose. However, best not dwell on the earlier poor decision making, what is done is done!

They certainly need to find additional ore and the capacity to raise it in order to fill the capacity of the mill (currently only running at c. 60%). So yet another poor decision made when they increased the mill capacity without fully thinking through how they were going to maximise on that investment!

Funding the new decline at c. US$16m pa certainly looks achievable and will clearly improve the mine capacity once the decline reaches Levels 7 and below. So hopefully benefits will arise within the 3-year timescale expected for arrival at Level 16+. The decline will also offer far more flexibility in the siting of drilling stations, plus mine ventilation, et al.

Useful to read the comment regarding estimated Reserves per level at c. 100-200Koz, so approximately 1+ years production per level - assuming gold density is maintained as the mine goes deeper, which would appear to be a reasonable assumption given the nature of their vein system.
Chip