Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[roguetreader] 24/1/2020 11:44

Steve
cheers for the heads-up. Agreed, at first run through looks to be a poor fourth quarter with warning that the current Qtr is also going to be down due to the annual maintenance. AISC at $1346 and a fall in cash of $6.1M for the quarter does not inspire confidence that things are on the mend and that this year is going to be one where the corner is turned. The Future Access Project once complete will outline the costs for going below level 12, if this is perceived to be anywhere near as problematic and expensive as the E15 extension then I don't see much light at the end of the tunnel for shareholders (i.e.seeing any money via dividends). Have small position here so will probably hold for now based on the shares being cheap on so many metrics and on the off chance the BOD retire on mass or are all run over by a bus sometime soon.
RT

[stevea171] 24/1/2020 10:35

MML's Q2/HY report was put out half an hour after the ASX close (Friday) with next Monday a public holiday. Teo the sly fox is an expert at hiding bad news after plenty of practice ...... !!!

Terrible update across all metrics but no one can trade the results till Tuesday!

To some extent I have followed Miningnut. I have been selling down my MML holding and finished selling all my UK broker held shares last night which was a lucky break in view of the report that only came later. I've been putting the funds to good use reinvesting in Petropavlovsk (POG) which is in 'turn around' mode, up 17% yesterday and should at least double this year.

So now I have left only my Auz Broker held Medusa shares which I will keep for now.

[stevea171] 22/1/2020 21:20

Tomorrow would be a possible date for Q2 report. Last year was 24/1/2019.

[tightfist] 18/1/2020 09:24

Thanks. Tailings Dam costs will be considerable but I don’t know how progressive/time scale they will be. Another one of my goldies is changing over to tails dry-stacking (for safety in Brazil) - ultimately I believe that is more expensive but it may be more progressive?

Regarding L16 Shaft, Teo memorably refused to address my direct question on cost projections and referred my to Boyd Timler across the room - just one example of his slopy shoulders! Around $40m is my guess but timescales must depend upon alternative exploration success nearby and/or success of underground winzes?

Cheers, tightfist

[stevea171] 18/1/2020 08:21

Miningnut - still looking in to the HC board although he is out.

"All you have to do is work out how much Capital Expenditure is planned for the near term - a couple of items that we already know about are the next Tailings Dam facility costing anywhere from $15mil to (put your own estimate here) that will be commencing in the current six months and then the L16 Shaft costing anywhere from $50mil to (put your own estimate here) which is projected to commence in FY21.

And don't forget those increased govt taxes due to kick-in in FY21."

[rhuvaal2] 17/1/2020 13:54

Yes, entry of Paradice and a proper add from Ruffer make this a comfortable hold..

[tightfist] 17/1/2020 12:22

I am patiently awaiting for value to-out - whilst very very frustrated with Teo, his mis-management and dismissive treatment of shareholders it has to come to an end..... sometime! Enter Paradice.... maybe they will become the activist Fox in the Henhouse and stir up Ruffer and Arbiter?
.
Just a thought, tightfist

[haughtonhoney] 17/1/2020 12:17

What is your own view Blummers?

[blummers] 17/1/2020 11:58

With those views, why don’t you just sell up and move on? There must be other goldies that appeal to you more!

[ilostthelot] 03/1/2020 12:25

😎👌

[tightfist] 03/1/2020 08:24

Hi ILTL,

I LIKE THE SIZE OF YOUR TICKS! Some consolidation due? - or will sentiment around PoG just keep it motoring on up?

[ilostthelot] 03/1/2020 08:11

Oi oi. That's more like it last night

[ilostthelot] 02/1/2020 10:17

Thanks Stevie.. Let's hope the new investor brings much needed change or luck.

If gold keeps ticking up we'll be fine even with our shady management.

Another tick up last night, the trend is strong for now.

[stevea171] 31/12/2019 10:14

New Year surprise! Paradice announces it's re-taken a 5.5% stake (11.5 million shares) here to become the 3rd largest shareholder. What does Paradice know that we don't? Would be good if they now increase further and then take an axe to the BoD's next year. I suppose that's too much to expect .... ??!!



Nordesmic (HC) comment: "Paradice's general record in small caps is very good though and Paradice himself has been called a 'master stock picker' by the AFR. Hopefully these guys are not done buying yet. Their buying will also likely put MML on the radar of other investors.

We know that there is a lack of liquidity in MML stock so even a small amount of institutional money can move the share price strongly."

[tightfist] 30/12/2019 10:18

.... My Glass is Half-Full!: Over a decade-long build they should generate more cash than even MML could spend on a shaft!

[goodgrief] 30/12/2019 09:54

... if past progress is anything to go by, then about a decade and all the cash they've got!

[ilostthelot] 30/12/2019 09:46

The cash build will not go unnoticed imho. A concern for for me is the cost of another lift shaft and length of time to build it..

[stevea171] 27/12/2019 12:47

Undervalued cf peers Red5 & Pantoro.

Heroic valuations on Australian based gold miners have prompted acquirers like St Barbara, Evolution, Northern Star, Newcrest and Resolute to plump for gold assets abroad over the past 18 months, most commonly in North America.

Medusa's valuations have been anything but heroic of late. The company has been chronically undervalued compared to ASX listed peers like Pantoro and Red5.

Pantoro produces roughly half as much gold each year as Medusa, but has a slightly larger market capitalisation.

Red5 produces slightly more gold than Medusa each year, but its market capitalisation is more than double Medusa's.

A month ago, November 26th was the biggest single day of trading in Medusa in almost three years. Street Talk understands a trade which saw about 1.6 per cent of the company change hands was facilitated by UBS, and it ensured volumes were about 33 times higher than this year's daily average.

The parcel was not bought by any of Medusa's existing substantial shareholders, and the trade was big enough to ensure whoever bought is now one of the top five shareholders in the company.

27/12/2019 Mkt Cap:
Red5 - $404 million
Pantoro - $178 million
Medusa - $160 million

[stevea171] 27/12/2019 12:08

TF. 2.6 million traded today. That's the second highest volume in the past 6 months on no company news.

I would say the rise is down to a number of factors:
It's on the back of gold breaking back above $1500 and probably resuming it's bull run.
A lot of investors sold out not knowing whether gold and MML were going lower but now stampeding to get back in.
MML is hugely under valued cf it's peers.
Miningnut has sold down his stake and is out.

Monday we will probably see 80c plus again with $1 when Q2 results are announced in January. Or is that being too optimistic for this company?!

[tightfist] 27/12/2019 08:31

Thanks deka. Steve, any views on movement posted on Hot Copper?

Best foot forward into the New Year! tightfist

[deka1] 27/12/2019 08:08

Well that's nice isn't it something to do with end of year financials/ or have they found a bonanza grade strike lol

all the best everyone.

[tightfist] 20/12/2019 08:22

Ditto too, held in my wife’s SIPP. Have you noticed the 2019 Market Cap pattern changes within their holdings? Any thoughts? It will be interesting to see their next letter, now quarterly, due in early January?

[roguetreader] 19/12/2019 21:24

Rh2, ditto, I also have a few quid in the Ruffer Investment Trust.

[rhuvaal2] 19/12/2019 16:50

Ruffer's investment trust is designed for pear-shaped market conditions, even a melt-down, and I have a chunk in there as well. Broker says they have an excellent track record so "may the storm clouds gather".