Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[bushtuckaman] 19/8/2020 12:07

Andy, thanks for the info re Interactive Investor.

[deka1] 19/8/2020 09:27

Andy, back upto date now.

[andy] 19/8/2020 09:18

deka1,

I think ADVFN data feeds have some problems this morning.

[deka1] 19/8/2020 09:15

why are last nights trades and price moves not being shown by advfn ? anyone please

[deka1] 19/8/2020 08:04

Down 5.7 % last night , why is advfn not showing the trades

[deka1] 19/8/2020 07:54

Thanks C9AJL,

[arja] 18/8/2020 19:20

corrientes,
you are right and small shareholders are often disadvantaged too when a company makes a placement with institutions at a discount . Nothing we can do but accept it but nowadays I only trade using CFDs as I explained above .

[arja] 18/8/2020 19:16

hi deka1,
what a great performance by MML on tuesday and I the biggest % gainer in the gold producers . Chartwise looks good but might be profit taking on wednesday after such a big rise . Interesting times and gold back at 2004 after hitting 1980 on profit taking - hope it holds until OZ market trades and I bought a few RSG here but quite nervous as depends how RSG performs in OZ on wednesday. good luck .

[c9ajl] 18/8/2020 17:07

Why is Aussie gold producer Medusa' Mining's share price skyrocketing? // Motley Fool Australiahttps://www.fool.com.au/2020/08/18/why-is-aussie-gold-producer-medusa-minings-share-price-skyrocketing/

[deka1] 18/8/2020 08:52

Thanks Warren Buffett ,

[geckotheglorious] 18/8/2020 08:52

Decent rise indeed.
Starting to get itchy feet.
But think I'll hold a wee while longer.

Not a fan of the leadership, and Philippine regulatory environment going forward but am holding my nose for the time being.

[ilostthelot] 18/8/2020 08:43

Decent rise last night.

[corrientes] 14/8/2020 16:08

I think it's absolutely disgusting that unless an Oz company has dual listing, a UK investor can't participate in an Open Offer to shareholders, so creating dilution.Anyone else, had similar problems ? Thank you, the red tape of Oz style Anti Money Laundering Regulations and the like.

[andy] 07/8/2020 10:48

Bush,

Interactive Investor allow trading in Aussie shares, either by leaving a limit order, or, like arja suggests, getting up at 1 am to place a live trade.

You can always get up at 6.45 am to trade of course, if you're an early rather than a late riser.....

[deka1] 05/8/2020 19:21

Good luck arja

[arja] 05/8/2020 15:27

deka1 ,
I see MML really responding to the roaring gold price and chart resistance ia at about 100 . I think it should break it and then maybe get to 130 or 140 in time assuming gold does not tank . good luck with it and I might just enter for a trade on thursday if it deos not open with a bang !

[arja] 05/8/2020 15:24

bushtuckaman,
sorry I just saw your question as I rarely open this thread and barred from the premium one . Actually I have a CFD account with IG and trade mainly UK shares whilst living here and occasionally an aussie share if I can get up at 1am for an hour or so ( smile ) . My account is aussie based and not subject to high margins but , assuming you are based in UK , you could not take advantage of that and subject to the new EU regulations . I am a BIG remainer but wish they had kept of it !

[deka1] 04/8/2020 22:00

COMEX GOLD NOW 2037/0Z

[deka1] 04/8/2020 17:35

Thanks for posting that steve

[stevea171] 04/8/2020 15:08

Sp closed back at 91c today. Will we see $1 again soon?

Good analysis by CncVenture (HC) on MML's recent production report.

An OK report and in line with what was expected.

Key takeaways:

That's A$66M (or 32c per share of cash). Nice!

With a MC of A$171M that's a EV of A$105M. Extremely low for producer of this size in this gold market...

Quarterly net cash build of US$14.6M + US$1.2M = US$15.8M = A$21.8M. Very nice!


Annualised that's A$21.8M x 4 = A$87.2M = FCF/EV yield of 83%. This sort of yield will turn heads rather quickly I imagine.

And with MML being an unhedged producer and the GP currently being about US$190 higher now, means that all else being equal it's potentially throwing off A$25M to A$30M a quarter making the FCF/EV yield 100%+ pa...

That said, having been an owner of MML on and off for the last 6 years I'll be the first to admit MML has had it's issues, but to it's credit it's also been consistently pouring gold for over a decade so at 100%+ FCF yield I'm now quite glad to be a holder and will be sitting tight at these gold prices.

To the point about its 3 year mine life, Co-O has a had 3 year mine life for the last decade... and at these gold prices both the reserves and resources will be written up anyway and historically drilling has generally produces semi-decent results.

Though I do wish they'd just built the decline 5 years ago.


Nonetheless, for all of medusa's past disappointments (and unfilled promises over the years), they have seem to made it to the end of the gold bear market without and significant capital raises and in recent years they've even tended to be within the ballpark of their guidance.

It's hard to imagine at these gold prices the share price remaining below $1 for much longer.


As for needing to hoard cash, the decline capex cost was estimated at US$48M over three year and was to be mostly funded with operational cash flows, so they'd already have over US$50M cash so at this point I think a dividend would certainly be being discussed, it's probably 50-50, but at these gold prices I'd be a bit surprised if the BoD didn't announce a modest dividend.

It certainly would go a long way to getting some eyeballs back on MML as it's well and truly off the radar these days.

No doubt if the gold bull market continues, MML will get pulled higher naturally (and maybe even outperform the sector being a slightly higher cost producer giving it better relative margin improvement than its peers) but it really needs its MC back in the $300M to $500M range before it'll start to get sucked back into some indexes and I think paying a dividend will help push it back in this direction.

So here's to hoping the BoD are strategic (though history would suggest they are not).

I also didn't like the lack of FY21 guidance as per the usual Q4 report.


And like all things it's a bit concerning that Covid appears to be having a mild impact. At these gold prices it's probably not an issue for one or two quarters, but it could become an issues if it continues into next year.

I look forward to the report in four weeks.

[deka1] 31/7/2020 18:55

C9AJL if you change the lower case h to capital H ,we can log right on .

[deka1] 31/7/2020 18:51

value and momentum could propel the Medusa Mining share price higher

[c9ajl] 31/7/2020 17:17

Why value and momentum could propel the Medusa Mining share price higherhttps://www.stockopedia.com/articles/why-value-and-momentum-could-propel-the-medusa-mining-share-price-higher-102318